Here’s How Investors Can Keep the Iran Conflict in Perspective

Events in Iran are unfolding quickly, prompting global concern from both a humanitarian standpoint and a market and economic perspective. The war in Iran has sent oil prices surging and U.S. Treasury yields higher.

European and Asian stocks are weaker amid concerns that the conflict could spread to other countries in the Middle East and beyond. There are more questions than answers right now. Historically, events like this have been relatively short-lived from a stock market perspective and have largely been forgotten within six months.

It is important to note that markets are not anticipating any specific outcome from the war. Instead, they are pricing in a wider range of risks due to uncertainty about how long the conflict may last and what Iran may look like in a post-war environment.

Periods of geopolitical stress often create the sense that the markets are bracing for something bigger. The challenge becomes resisting the urge to make drastic moves in the portfolio.The chart below, which we also shared two weeks ago, shows such events typically do not last long enough or have enough impact to meaningfully change the trajectory of growth.

Over time, investors’ worries erode as emotions give way to market fundamentals, such as corporate profit growth and the pace of the U.S. economy.

How the Market Has Climbed Past Crises

Chart showing total return for S&P 500 Index during geopolitical events since 1987.
Sources: Capital Group, Standard & Poor’s. As of Dec. 31, 2025. Data is indexed to 100 as of Jan. 1, 1987, based on cumulative total returns for the S&P 500 Index.

For this conflict in particular, oil is the key economic indicator to watch. Iran exports about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, and 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If countries become worried about supply constraints, demand could increase, putting further upward pressure on oil prices. The most likely impact from this conflict would be higher oil prices.

However, the U.S. is much less vulnerable to temporary energy spikes because we are now a net exporter of oil, and advances in technology have made it easier to increase domestic production quickly to help offset any declines in foreign production.

At times like this, it is critical not to be swayed by alarming headlines. Sensational predictions rarely come true.

Spending time worrying about events that may happen — or that historically happen rarely — is a great way to scare yourself out of the stock market, which goes up far more often than it goes down.

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has finished the year negative 26 times, and in 14 of those years, the decline was less than 10%. In the other 72 years, the market has finished in the positive, meaning that more than 73% of the time, the market ends the year higher.

In other words, nearly three-quarters of the time, people invested in the S&P 500 finished the year ahead.

Distribution of S&P 500 Annual Returns Since 1928

Sources: Carson Investment Research, FactSet 1/22/2026.

If you are investing for the long run, it’s best to consider your portfolio from a place of optimism or hope, not fear. If you don’t believe things are going to be better in the future than they are today, then the market may not be the place for you.

This doesn’t mean that there won’t be recessions, financial crises, wars, or market crashes in the future, but focusing on the negatives or worrying about the “what ifs” makes it much harder to stay invested for the long run.

We all see the market headlines and emails saying that a market crash is coming, a recession is on the horizon, or today’s market looks like the dot-com bust or the Great Recession. What we’re saying is that major events will happen and markets will fall at times, but most dire forecasts about the future simply don’t come true.


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The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy heading. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the proven disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing, and forward-looking strategies, while avoiding reliance on stale retrospective data.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: Capital Group, Fidelity, Carson

The Rule Change That Could Affect Your 401K Contributions This Year

Earlier this month, markets reached another milestone as the Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time. Congratulations to those who stuck with the investment plan through thick and thin. Volatility sometimes brings challenges for investors, but with the knowledge that stocks tend to rise over the long run, buying when times are scary is a great way to build wealth. 

Since 2020 alone, we have seen a global pandemic, a 25% market decline in 2022, and another 20% drop last year with Liberation Day and the Trump tariffs. There have always been reasons to wait and not invest, but history shows that investors who look beyond short-term uncertainty typically are rewarded.

How the Market Has Climbed Past Crises

Chart showing the S&P 500 index return rising since 1987 despite geopolitical turmoil.
Sources: Capital Group, Standard & Poor’s. As of Dec. 31, 2025. Data is indexed to 100 as of Jan. 1, 1987, based on cumulative total returns for the S&P 500 Index.

Key Retirement Rule Changes in 2026

There are some important changes this year for those who make catch-up contributions to their retirement plans. A provision of the Secure 2.0 Act emphasizes contributions to Roth accounts that can have a meaningful impact on retirement planning.

If you are 50 or older and have taxable earnings over $150,000 for the prior year (i.e., 2025 for 2026 contributions), any catch-up contribution to your 401K, 403b and 457b plans will have to be made to a Roth 401K with after-tax dollars. If you make less than $150,000, you will not be affected by the rule change; you can continue making catch-up contributions to your traditional 401K or Roth 401K.



Roth Refresher

Roth contributions are made with after-tax dollars.

How do Roth contributions impact your taxes and paycheck?
• You don’t get a tax deduction up front, which may result in a higher income tax bill.
• Qualified withdrawals in retirement will be tax-free.
• Your net paycheck is reduced because your payroll deduction is taken after income taxes are withheld.

Roth contributions can potentially be beneficial for investors who:
• Haven’t been able to make Roth IRA contributions because of income limitations.
• Want to minimize taxable income during retirement years.
• Seek more tax-free withdrawals in retirement with no required minimum distributions.
• Want to have more estate-planning options in the future to transfer money to heirs without tax obligations.



For 2026, the standard catch-up limit is $8,000, though individuals aged 60-63 may be eligible for a “super catch-up” of $11,250. That means you lose out on the upfront tax deduction, but you can potentially benefit from the Roth tax advantages, including tax-free earnings and withdrawals if you meet the five-year aging rule for the plan.

If your plan does not offer a Roth 401K option, you won’t be able to make catch-up contributions, though other options may be available, such as contributing your catch-up amount to a Roth IRA if you are under the income limit or making a Roth conversion.



401K Contribution and Catch-Up Amounts

Chart showing how 401k contributions limits changed in 2026.


5 Strategies to Consider

1. Max out your regular contributions. Regardless of age, the maximum contribution for this year is $24,500, which is a $1,000 increase over 2025. Contributions are separate from the matching funds. This year’s aggregate employee and employer contribution limit is $72,000.

2. Consider making partial contributions to a Roth IRA. If you are looking for Roth options, you may be able to contribute to a Roth IRA, depending on income levels. Contributions for prior tax years can be made up until the April 15 deadline of the current tax year. Both you and your spouse can make independent contributions. Roth IRA and Roth 401K contributions must each meet the separate five-year aging rule to avoid taxes and penalties.

3. Think about contributing to a traditional IRA. Whether or not you are covered by a workplace 401K, you can still make non-deductible contributions to a traditional IRA up to the annual limit of $7,500 for 2026. Individuals who are 50 and older can make catch-up contributions of $1,100 for 2026. This won’t lower your tax bill, but the funds can grow tax-deferred until you withdraw them in retirement. You also can convert them later into a Roth IRA using a backdoor conversion.

4. Convert your traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. In a backdoor Roth IRA conversion, you make non-deductible contributions first to a traditional IRA and then convert those funds into a Roth IRA. This is different from standard Roth conversion, which transfers tax-deductible contributions in a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. A backdoor Roth conversion has more complex tax considerations, especially if the IRA has some tax-deferred funds. Converted balances to a Roth must also meet the separate five-year aging rule to avoid penalties on withdrawals. It is crucial to consult with your tax professional to understand the tax implications in advance.

5. Consider a health savings account (HSA). You may be able to contribute to an HSA account if you are enrolled in an eligible health savings plan. This can help you pay for qualified medical expense with pretax income while also allowing you to invest the money to help support retirement if you don’t need the funds now. The money you contribute to an HSA account isn’t subject to federal income taxes. Earnings accumulate tax-free, and withdrawals are not subject to federal taxes if used for qualified medical expenses. If you are eligible to contribute, the limits are $4,400 for an individual and $8,750 for family coverage.


Key Takeaways

• Starting in 2026, high earners making catch-up contributions to a 401K will have to make these contributions to a Roth 401K.
• Consider fully funding your 401K to take advantage of the employer match (if available).
• In addition to your 401K, you may be able to contribute to other tax-advantaged accounts, such as HSAs.
• Nondeductible contributions to an IRA and backdoor Roth IRA conversions may also be good considerations.


The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client. 

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy heading. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the proven disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing, and forward-looking strategies, while avoiding reliance on stale retrospective data.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time. 

Sources: Capital Group, Fidelity, Carson Wealth     

Trump Accounts Are Coming This Year; Here’s What You Should Know

Starting this year, families will have a new way to save for their children’s financial futures: the 530A account, more commonly referred to as a Trump account. This tax‑advantaged IRA is designed specifically for children; each account is owned by a child and administered by an adult until the child turns 18.

Trump accounts become available July 5.

Initially, the Treasury Department will establish and administer each account. After that, families will have the option to roll the account over to another financial institution. The government will make a one‑time $1,000 contribution for American children born between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028. Additional contributions may be made by individuals, employers, and charities. Investments are limited to low‑cost index funds.

While some details about Trump accounts are still forthcoming, we’ve addressed some of the key questions below.

What are Trump accounts?

A Trump account is a tax-advantaged account with IRA-like rules, established for a child under age 18. The child is both the beneficiary and the legal owner of the account, while an adult (typically a parent or guardian) acts on the child’s behalf until age 18. These accounts are intended to help families begin saving and investing early. The Treasury Department will create and administer the initial accounts.

Who is eligible?

Children under the age of 18 with a Social Security number are eligible; only one account per child is allowed. The government will seed each account with a one-time $1,000 contribution for U.S. citizens born between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028, when a tax election is filed on the child’s behalf. Children who aren’t eligible for the $1,000 contribution can still have an account.

Who can contribute and how much?

The new account is designed to be flexible for families. Contributions can come from parents or other individuals, employers, and even charitable organizations. Each source can be treated differently for tax purposes.

The amount that can be contributed is capped at $5,000 per year; this will be indexed for inflation after 2027. The initial $1,000 seed contribution from the government does not count towards this annual limit.

There is no earned-income requirement for the child. Contributions made on an after-tax basis are not taxed again when withdrawn. In some cases, employers may offer a pre-tax payroll deduction, but availability will vary by employer and plan.

Employer-funded contributions: An employer may choose to contribute up to $2,500 per employee per year. If an employee has multiple children, the employer may split the contribution among children.

Employer salary reduction: Employees can elect to direct part of their pay, on a pre-tax basis, into a Trump account. Combined employer and employee contributions cannot exceed $5,000 per child, per year.

Taxes on withdrawals depend on the source of the contribution, making accurate recordkeeping important. In general, all investment earnings are taxable when withdrawn, while the tax treatment of the principal depends on whether contributions were made before or after taxes.

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When can you withdraw funds?

Withdrawals are generally not permitted before age 18, except for rollovers. On Jan. 1 of the year the child turns 18, the account may be transitioned into a traditional IRA, though this is not required.

Early withdrawals are typically taxable and may be subject to a 10% penalty unless used for qualifying expenses, such as education, a first-time home purchase, birth or adoption, or eligible medical expenses.

Once the beneficiary turns 18, there are several options:

1. Keep the account as a Trump account under IRA rules. Trump accounts are not grouped with IRAs when determining how much of a withdrawal is taxable.

2. Roll over the balance into a traditional IRA or another eligible retirement account. A Trump account will not automatically become a traditional IRA; you may need to take action for that to happen.

3. Convert the account to a Roth IRA if it’s appropriate for the child.

How do you open a Trump account?

Opening a Trump account starts with an election process through the IRS, either by filing Form 4547 or using this online tool. Elections are scheduled for mid-2026, with accounts becoming available July 5. Once the election is complete, the Treasury will provide instructions on how to activate the account.

How can the money be invested?

Investment options are straightforward:

• Mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs): Investments must be in funds that track the S&P 500 or another equity index, with at least 90% invested in U.S. companies.
• No leverage: Borrowed money cannot be used to buy investments inside the account.
• Expense ratio: Eligible funds must have an expense ratio of .10% or less.

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The bottom line

Trump accounts offer a simple, low‑cost way to invest for a child’s long‑term future. If you have a newborn or plan to grow your family in the next three years, coordinating this new account with your overall education and retirement strategy may help maximize its impact.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy heading. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the proven disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing, and forward-looking strategies, while avoiding reliance on stale retrospective data.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: Fidelity, Vanguard, Trumpaccounts.gov

How Do Successful Investors Respond to Market Volatility?

Uncertainty has always been part of investing. Every market environment brings its own set of unknowns, which is why a Fidelity portfolio manager recently observed that “uncertainty is the new certainty.”

Judging by the market’s reaction to potential new tariffs involving the EU and Greenland, 2026 is no exception, even if that particular development wasn’t on your bingo card to start the year. This is especially true at a time when the broader economic outlook remains strong in many respects.

Periods of volatility can be uncomfortable, and some investors respond by selling in haste. We take a different view. Market pullbacks provide opportunities to pick up equities at temporarily reduced prices, and the long-term horizon allows investors to take advantage. 

As the chart illustrates, history supports this approach. Since 1929, the probability of experiencing negative returns over a 10-year period has been just 6%. The longer one owns stocks, the lower the likelihood of a loss — declining from 46% over a single day to just 6% over a decade. Time in the market remains one of the most powerful tools investors have.

Time Horizons and Equity Losses

Probability of negative returns based on S&P 500 total returns, 1929-present

Sources: S&P, Bloomberg, BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy, BofA Global Research.

What Many Wealth Firms Avoid Saying Clearly

Long-term investment outcomes are driven far more by client behavior than by market conditions. Many wealth firms hesitate to say this plainly because it can be uncomfortable. But the reality is simple: Clients who stay disciplined and follow their investment team tend to succeed, and those who frequently override strategy tend to undermine results.

Discipline, Not Drama, Builds Wealth

The majority of investors do this right. Most of our clients do. They understand that disciplined, professional portfolio management — not constant reaction to the day’s headlines — is what creates long-term success.

But a small percentage of clients and investors don’t.

• They want to override the process.
• They try to force market timing.
• They react to news, politics, and short-term noise.

And when results suffer, they look for something else to blame. This is where most firms stay silent. We won’t.

Market Timing Is the Fastest Way to Break Compounding

Trying to time the market is not a sophisticated strategy. It’s a gamble that requires two perfect decisions: when to get out and when to get back in.

Very few people make the second decision well. They exit “until things feel better,” watch markets rise, hesitate, then wait for the pullback that never feels safe enough or think that they can’t get back in at a higher level than where they sold.

Meanwhile, compounding keeps moving without them.

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Headlines Are Not Signals

Another thing most firms won’t say is that if your portfolio decisions are driven by the news, you’re already late. We hear it constantly:

“Why aren’t we buying this after the announcement?”
“Why didn’t we react when politics shifted?”
“Why aren’t we chasing that story?”

Here’s why: Professional investing does not chase headlines. Markets digest information instantly. Portfolios are built through positioning, not reaction. Acting after the fact adds risk, not insight.

As Wayne Gretzky famously put it, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” That principle is foundational to how disciplined investing works.

The Vegas Effect: Stories Without Receipts

Here’s another uncomfortable reality: Many people who claim they’re outperforming on their own can never quite produce the full record.

It’s the same phenomenon you see in Las Vegas. Wins get remembered. Losses get discounted. Missed opportunities never make the story. If results were truly consistent and repeatable, transparency wouldn’t be an issue.

The handful of people who can successfully manage their own money over decades does exist, but they’re disciplined, unemotional, process-driven, and rare.

Selectivity Is a Strength, Not a Weakness

Every year, we review our client relationships intentionally — not to judge performance, but to confirm alignment. When a client repeatedly overrides strategy, forces market calls, and then assigns blame for outcomes driven by those decisions, that’s not a market problem.

It’s a fit problem. The discipline required for long-term success wasn’t being followed.

Most firms avoid conversations like this. We don’t. A disciplined investment process only works when it’s allowed to work.

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What Actually Works Over Decades

The clients who succeed over the long haul share common traits:

• They stay invested through cycles.
• They allow professionals to manage the portfolio.
• They accept volatility as part of the process.
• They avoid emotional overrides.

That’s how results compound over decades, not months or days.

The Bottom Line

Let’s rip the Band-Aid clean off: Working with wealth management firms and advisors but refusing to follow their guidance defeats the entire purpose.

If you want to build lasting wealth, you don’t need to predict markets. You need discipline. You need consistency. You need to stay in your lane. Most investors who do this succeed, and for the few who won’t, honesty matters more than comfort.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy heading. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the proven disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing, and forward-looking strategies, while avoiding reliance on stale retrospective data.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: Bank of America, Fidelity

The Economic Themes Driving Market Predictions for 2026

Over the weekend, U.S. officials announced the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who were transported to New York to face charges related to drug trafficking and narco-terrorism. The events that unfolded in Venezuela could lead to instability in the markets to start the year. As always, we caution you against making knee-jerk decisions or reactions to breaking news.

History suggests that markets tend to digest geopolitical shocks over time, as the chart below illustrates, and we believe equity markets should look through the headlines and focus on the long run. Venezuela is a small global player, but it does have the highest proven oil reserves, according to OPEC. The infrastructure to harvest those reserves is limited, however, and it is premature to lay out a long-term assessment of the oil market based on last weekend’s developments.

How Markets Have Responded to Major World Events

This view of how the S&P 500 Index responded after geopolitical shocks shows that over time, markets tend to adapt and refocus on economic fundamentals. In about two-thirds of cases, markets were higher a year after the event, even when the initial reaction was sharply negative.

Table listing major historical events from World War II through 2024, including wars, terrorist attacks, financial crises, and political shocks, alongside U.S. stock market returns after 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. The data shows mixed short-term reactions but a tendency toward positive market performance over longer periods.
Sources: Carson Investment Research, S&P Dow Jones Indices, CFRA 6/13/2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market returns shown are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect the performance of any specific investment strategy.

Looking Back at 2025

Last year was a strong one for investors, as stocks made new highs around the world, and bonds had their best year since 2020. Commodities gained overall, with gold and silver soaring to new highs. Bitcoin and oil were the two major assets that had negative returns.

As a reminder, it wasn’t always smooth sailing in 2025. Between mid-February and early April, the S&P 500 suffered a near bear market (down 19% at the low point). The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 both fell 24% during that same timeframe.

Since the closing low on April 8, the market had a great rally and closed in higher double digits for the third consecutive year. But even then, the line wasn’t straight up, as both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 experienced almost 10% pullbacks after April 8, and the S&P fell 5%. Only two of the Magnificent Seven stocks — Alphabet and Nvidia — outperformed the S&P. The other five underperformed both the S&P and the NASDAQ. International Equities dominated U.S. stocks, driven by a decline in the dollar and attractive valuations outside of the U.S.

Bar chart showing 2025 asset class total returns, with gold leading at 65%, followed by international small-cap and emerging market equities. U.S. equities show more modest gains, while Bitcoin and oil are negative performers.
Sources: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Data as of Dec. 31, 2025. Chart shows year-to-date performance of selected asset classes. Index definitions available upon request. For illustrative purposes only.

Last year’s returns were driven by earnings growth and profitability, a sturdier foundation for stocks than just multiple expansion. In 2025, earnings growth drove 79% of the S&P 500’s return — up from 55% in 2024 and 27% in 2023, when the Magnificent Seven drove most of the returns.

Growth broadened last year, with financials, utilities and materials enjoying double-digit profit growth. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 saw positive returns, with real estate achieving the lowest performance.

What’s Driving Market Returns?

In the last three years, earnings growth has eclipsed multiple expansion as the main contribution to S&P 500 returns.

Three donut charts showing the source of market returns by year. In 2023, returns were driven primarily by multiple expansion (73%) versus earnings growth (27%). In 2024, earnings growth increased to 55%. In 2025 to date, earnings growth accounts for 79% of returns, with multiple expansion at 21%.
Sources: FactSet, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data is as of Dec. 15, 2025.

Looking Ahead to 2026

No one knows what will happen in the stock market this year. We do know that there will be bad days and scary headlines — such as the latest Venezuela news in just the first week. Market outlooks are good exercises as we try to predict the market, the economy, and what the new year may look like, but market dynamics don’t follow the calendar.

Some economic themes like artificial intelligence remain strong, but they change in complexion as AI continues to mature and grow. Other themes like tariffs, inflation, housing supply, profit margins, labor supply altered by immigration shifts, and interest rates continue to be top of mind for economists and market predictors.

Inflation remains persistent as both tariffs and labor shortages push costs higher. We also don’t know if the One Big Beautiful Bill will stimulate consumers and businesses or what effect it may have on the market.

As the chart below shows, 2026 predictions for the S&P 500 range from a low of 7,100 to a high of 8,100. The average of the top banks’ predictions is 7,663, which would imply an almost 12% gain for the year. On the low end, the predicted return is 3.73%, and on the high end, it is over 18%.

These estimates will change throughout the year, with economists updating their predictions based on current events and fluctuations. These same strategists were bullish heading into 2025 but later cut their forecast around Liberation Day, only to readjust it after stocks began to take off.

Wall Street’s Predictions for the S&P 500

Table listing year-end 2026 market index predictions from major financial institutions, led by Oppenheimer Asset Management at 8,100, followed by Deutsche Bank at 8,000 and Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo at 7,800.
Source: Compiled by DealBook from company reports.
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The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy heading. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the proven disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing, and forward-looking strategies, while avoiding reliance on stale retrospective data.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: Carson, CNBC, DealBook, Goldman Sachs, S&P

The Financial Questions That Mattered Most To Our Clients in 2025

At CD Wealth Management, we view education as a fundamental part of our client relationships. Transparency matters to us; helping you understand the why behind our strategies is as important as the strategies themselves. Through our newsletters and articles, we share insights that provide clarity and context so you can feel informed, confident, and engaged in the planning process.

The following pieces resonated with our clients the most this year. If you found them insightful, please share them with family members or friends who might benefit from them as well.

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1. What to Expect Now That the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Has Become Law

Closeup of the documents of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a budget reconciliation bill in the 119th United States Congress.

July 10, 2025
Trump’s tax law locks in lower rates and higher exemptions for high earners and estates — and adds new savings incentives.

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2. Understanding the 10-Year Treasury and Its Impact on Your Investments

United States Treasury Department Building in Washington, DC.

June 27, 2025 
It influences all borrowing costs, from interest rates on bonds to mortgage rates and student loans.

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3. Here’s What History Tells Us About the Impact of the Government Shutdown

National Capitol building with US flag in Washington DC, USA.

Oct. 2, 2025
Government shutdowns are typically more of a political standoff than an economic crisis.

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4. Your Guide to Paying for College: Save More, Stress Less

portrait of happy female university graduate and parents at ceremony.

June 12, 2025
A savings strategy that includes a tax-advantaged 529 plan can help you prepare for the challenge of paying for college.

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5. What Caused Mid-May’s Market Selloff — and What Happens Next?

Close-up of a trading screen showing multiple red "SELL" alerts, indicating a stock market drop or panic selling event. Photograph of computer screen.

May 22, 2025
The sudden decline was driven largely by the bond market, not by any shift in the economy or corporate fundamentals.

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The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy heading. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the proven disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing, and forward-looking strategies, while avoiding reliance on stale retrospective data.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

How To Keep Elders Safe From Financial Fraud

As we approach the holidays, it’s more important than ever to stay aware of possible financial scams. Fraud that targets seniors is one of the fastest-growing crimes in the U.S., costing older Americans nearly $3 billion annually. These crimes often go unreported and are difficult to prosecute, making them low risk for criminals and devastating for victims, leaving many in a vulnerable position with little time to recover.

Scammers are always devising new tactics. Many scams targeting seniors fall into the broad “impersonator” category, in which scammers pose as trusted individuals or authorities to gain confidence or pressure their victims into taking action.

While many scams come from strangers, more than 90% of reported elder abuse cases involve family members, so vigilance is critical. Scammers prey on seniors’ desire for security, independence, and family care, using increasingly sophisticated strategies.

Emerging Scam Trends in 2025

• AI-driven impersonation: Fraudsters are using artificial intelligence to mimic voices and create convincing emails or texts, posing as family members or trusted institutions. AIgenerated videos may promote fake services or investments. Scammers also may exploit deepfake technology or real-time face- and body-swapping tools to convince victims they are someone else.

• QR code and digital wallet fraud: These codes have gained popularity as a touchless option to do things like read a restaurant menu or make a payment. Scammers take advantage of this trend by placing their own QR codes in a public location, sending users to a fraudulent website or payment page.

• Crypto and “investment opportunity” scams: Holiday-themed offers promising quick returns are common traps. These schemes have taken different forms over the years, including scams involving fake prizes, contests, giveaways or early investment opportunities.

• “Accidental” text messages: Wrong-number texts are often the first step in a romance or employment scam, and they are quite prolific; scammers use AI messaging bots to target thousands of people at a time.

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Common Scams We Still See

• Grandparent scam: This happens when a scammer pretends to be the victim’s grandchild, often making up a stressful situation and asking for financial assistance. To avoid raising suspicions from other family members, they will ask you to keep everything secret. This is such a devious approach because it preys on one of older adults’ most reliable assets: their hearts.

• Online romance scam: These scams occur when someone builds an online romantic (or platonic) relationship with you while using a fake identity and then starts asking for money. The scammers might create complete social media profiles and have full backstories for their identities. It may be a long con game, taking weeks or months to get to know you before asking for anything. The scammers may ask you to invest in a business, send them money or help a family member who is sick in the hospital. Like the grandparent scam, they want you to keep their request for money a secret.

• Texting and phishing scams: Fake text messages have been on the rise since the pandemic. These scammers try to trick you into believing you are communicating with a legitimate representative of Amazon, Apple, PayPal, Netflix, or another online company. They tell you that your account has been compromised, suspicious activity has been tracked or a package is delayed. Once you click the link, they try to obtain your valuable personal information and even your credit card information.

• Medicare scam: These scams target Medicare beneficiaries by claiming to be a Medicare representative and asking for personal and medical information. Once they obtain your information, they will then use it or sell it to identity thieves. Since every U.S. citizen over the age of 65 qualifies for Medicare, scammers rarely need to research specific health insurance information to target their victims.

• Pop-up virus scam: Fake antivirus alerts trick victims into downloading malware or paying for bogus services.

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How You Can Help Elderly Parents

• Educate, don’t dictate: Don’t just tell your parents to hang up or throw out the letter. Discuss the “why.” They may need help identifying red flags that seem obvious to you. For example: You didn’t win the Ed McMahon sweepstakes. You don’t have to pay a fee for winning the lottery. Government agencies don’t make unsolicited calls and ask for personal information.

• Avoid shame: Remind your parents what they taught us years ago: Don’t trust strangers, especially those seeking money or personal information. Remind your parents that you are there to help and that they should not feel ashamed. Show compassion during this stressful time.

• Stay connected: Talk to them about the risks of sharing their personal information online, over the phone or by mail. Encourage them to contact you immediately if they think they have been scammed. They may be embarrassed, but the longer they sit on it, the worse it can get.

• Set up alerts: Help your parents receive alerts if their account has been hacked or if the bank detects suspicious activity. Discuss having them give you access to view their bank accounts online.

• Teach digital hygiene: Show them how to spot suspicious emails, texts, QR codes and websites. They should look over the messaging and the website to make sure it is legitimate.

• Opt-out lists: Remove phone numbers and addresses from marketing databases.

• Document everything: Save suspicious messages for reporting to authorities.

Trusted Resources

• FTC scam alerts: ftc.gov/scams
• FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center: ic3.gov
• Better Business Bureau Scam Tracker: bbb.org/scamtracker
• FINRA investor alerts: finra.org/investors

Please know that we are here to help, too. As your fiduciary, if we recognize any signs of elder abuse, we will notify Kestra, who will in turn notify the proper federal agencies. We are on your team and are ready to help without judgment. We can help buffer with the family and facilitate the conversation in a safe, supportive environment.

We ask that you share this email with your friends and family members in the hope that your loved ones will not get scammed and will avoid the headache and embarrassment that affect so many.

Promo for an article titled Here's Why the Stock Market is the Best Place to Build Wealth.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy heading. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the proven disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing, and forward-looking strategies, while avoiding reliance on stale retrospective data.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Year-End Review: How the New Tax Law Could Impact Your Taxes

Earlier this year, President Trump signed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” into law, reinforcing many provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, along with other significant tax changes. As we approach the end of the year, here’s a summary of the law’s permanent and temporary changes — and what they mean for you.

Permanent Changes

The following provisions will become a permanent part of the tax code:

• Seven tax brackets remain, with a top rate of 37% and a bottom rate of 10%.
• The mortgage interest deduction remains at its current limit of $750,000 for joint filers ($375,000 for single filers).
• The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction will increase to $40,000 and then revert to $10,000 in 2030. The higher SALT cap will phase out for incomes over $500,000.
• The standard deduction increases to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for joint filers, indexed for inflation after 2025.
• Lifetime gift and estate tax exclusions increase to $15 million for single filers and $30 million for filers who are married and filing jointly, indexed for inflation going forward.
• Child Tax Credit will increase to $2,200 per child starting in 2025.
• Non-itemizers can claim a deduction for charitable contributions of up to $1,000 ($2,000 for couples) starting in 2026.

Promo for an article titled Your Year-End Financial Checklisty: Moves to Make Before 2025 Ends.

Temporary Provisions (4 Years)

The legislation includes some temporary deductions and credits that are valid for the 2025-2028 tax years only.

• Tip and overtime deductions: Workers can deduct up to $25,000 in qualifying tip income and $12,500 in overtime pay ($25,000 for joint filers). These deductions phase out with income over $150,000 ($300,000 for joint filers).
• Additional deduction for seniors:Those over the age of 65 will get an additional $6,000 deduction that begins to phase out at an income of $75,000 for single filers and $150,000 for joint filers. This is in addition to the $2,000 deduction for single filers and $3,200 for joint filers.
Vehicle loan interest deduction: Auto buyers can deduct up to $10,000 of loan interest for purchased vehicles whose final assembly took place in the U.S. The deduction would apply for single taxpayers with adjusted gross income of $100,000 or less ($200,000 for people filing jointly).

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Additional Provisions

New savings account: Parents and relatives can now contribute up to $5,000 a year to a new savings account for minor beneficiaries, called Trump accounts. Initially acting like a non-deductible IRA, contributions can be made until the beneficiary reaches the age of 18. Then, the account would effectively convert to a traditional IRA. Additionally, parents of children born between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028, would qualify for $1,000 in federal money to start the account.
Expanded 529 plan uses: Acceptable uses include miscellaneous expenses such as testing fees, tutoring outside the home, and educational therapies, as well as tax-free withdrawals for recognized postsecondary credential programs.
Broader HSA eligibility: More health plan types and participant categories are included.
Social Security taxes: The legislation did not eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, which remain taxable up to 85% for individuals with income greater than $34,000, or $44,000 for a couple. However, the $6,000 deduction for those 65 and older may help offset taxes on Social Security benefits for some over the next four years.

Key Individual Tax Changes

As you review the new tax legislation, it may be the perfect time to review your financial planning needs as well. This includes revisiting your investment portfolio, assessing tax planning opportunities, reevaluating retirement goals, and managing your wealth transfer and legacy plans.

As we learn more about the Trump Savings accounts and other aspects of the bill, we will continue to communicate and educate.

This summary of the new legislation contains merely a portion of the items that may apply to your family. We are always happy to meet and discuss any of the above to ensure that you remain on track with your financial profile and your goals.

Promo for an article titled Here's Why the Stock Market is the Best Place to Build Wealth.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy heading. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the proven disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing, and forward-looking strategies, while avoiding reliance on stale retrospective data.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Source: Kestra Investment Management

Your Year-End Financial Checklist: Moves To Make Before 2025 Ends

As we prepare to wrap up another year, it is the perfect time to review year-end planning strategies to ensure your wealth plan reflects changes in your circumstances or goals, the current tax environment, and the economic landscape.

The end of the year is an important time for making financial decisions that can have an impact in the year ahead — and for years to come. We recommend that you review the planning strategies below to consider and discuss.

Income Tax Strategies

Traditional year-end planning focuses on deferring income into a future year and accelerating deductions into the current year.

— If you anticipate being in a lower tax bracket next year:

• Defer income if possible so you can postpone paying the tax and have that income at a lower bracket.
• If you itemize on your tax return, bunch your medical expenses in the current year to meet the percentage of your adjusted gross income to claim those deductions.
• Make your January mortgage payment in December so you can deduct the interest on this year’s return.

Promo for an article titled Turning Investment Losses into Gains: The Art of Tax-Loss Harvesting.

Tax-Related Investment Strategies

— Tax-loss harvesting is the strategy of selling securities at a loss to offset a capital gain liability, either for today or in the future. Securities must be sold by Dec. 31, the last trading day of 2025, to realize a capital gain or loss.

• Harvest losses by selling taxable investments. To avoid the IRS wash-sale rule, you must wait at least 31 days before buying back a holding that’s sold for a loss.
• Harvest gains by selling taxable investments if you have a tax loss carryforward.

— Make sure that you have satisfied your required minimum distributions (RMD).

• If you fail to take your RMD, this may result in a 25% penalty. (This is down from 50%.)
• If you own an inherited IRA, RMD may be required separately for that account as well. If you inherited an IRA after 2019, it must be depleted by the end of the 10th year. If the original owner of the IRA was already taking RMDs at the time of death, you must take an annual distribution in years 1-9, in addition to making sure the IRA is fully depleted in year 10.
• Beneficiaries of a Roth IRA do not have to take RMDs. However, the 10-year rule still applies, and the entire account must be fully distributed by the end of the 10th year.

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Retirement Planning Strategies

— Maximize your IRA contributions. You may be able to deduct annual contributions of up to $7,000 to your traditional IRA and $7,000 to your spouse’s IRA ($8,000 if over the age of 50).

— Make a Roth IRA contribution if you qualify under the applicable income limits.

— Consider increasing or maximizing your 401(k) contribution; the maximum for 2025 is $23,500 for those under age 50 and $31,000 for those 50 and older. Contributing more to your 401(k) can reduce your adjusted gross income while boosting your long-term retirement savings.

— New in 2025: If you are between 60 and 63, you can contribute an additional amount to your employer-sponsored retirement plan.

— Consider making contributions to a Roth 401(k) if your plan allows.

— Consider setting up a Roth IRA for each of your children who have earned income during the year.

Gifting Strategies

— Consider making gifts up to $19,000 per person, as allowed under the federal annual gift tax exclusion. You can give up to $19,000 this year to as many people as you want without triggering gift taxes. Note: Payments made directly to educational and/or medical institutions on behalf of your intended beneficiary do not count towards your annual exclusion amount — or against your lifetime estate tax exclusion.

— Create a donor advised fund for an immediate income tax deduction and provide immediate and future benefits to charity over time.

— If you already have a donor advised fund or want to donate to a charity, consider gifting appreciated assets that have been held longer than one year to get the fair market value income tax deduction while avoiding income tax on the appreciation.

— If over the age of 70½, consider making a direct transfer from an IRA to a public charity. The distribution is excluded from gross income, and you can give up to $108,000 as a tax-free gift from your IRA, which may fully satisfy RMD requirements.

— Consider combining multiple years of charitable giving into a single year to exceed the standard deduction threshold. This is called “bunching.” The chart below illustrates how bunching can reduce taxes if executed properly.

Bunching in 2025

Scenario: Donor has income of $750K, is in the 35% income federal tax bracket, files jointly as a married couple, and itemizes deductions.

Source: Fidelity Charitable. This is a hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. This example does not take into account other deductions. Information herein is not legal or tax advice. As with any tax-planning strategy, there may be additional considerations that pertain to your personal situation. Other strategies may provide more flexibility and similar savings. Please consult your tax advisor.

Wrapping up 2025, Planning for 2026

— Discuss major life events with CD Wealth to confirm you have clarity in your current situation.

— Communicate with your CPA to provide capital gains and investment income information for a more accurate year-end projection.

— Check your Health Savings Account (HSA) contributions for 2025. If you qualify, you can contribute up to $4,300 (individual) or $8,850 (family) — and an additional $1,000 catch-up if over the age of 55.

— Double-check your beneficiary designations for retirement plans, IRAs, Roth IRAs, annuities, and life insurance policies.

— If you do not already have identity theft protection, consider purchasing a service to help protect you and your family.

The end of the year is a perfect time to review your financial planning needs. This includes reviewing the investment portfolio, assessing year-end tax planning opportunities, reviewing retirement goals, and managing your legacy plans. The list above includes some of the items that may apply to you and your family. 

We are happy to meet to discuss any of the above to ensure you remain on track with your financial goals.

Promo for an article titled Here's Why the Stock Market Remains the Best Place to Build Wealth.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client. 

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading. We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy — and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: Fidelity

Here’s Why the Stock Market Remains the Best Place To Build Wealth

At CD Wealth Management, we believe the stock market remains the best place to invest money, both today and for the long term. Stocks represent ownership in the most innovative, productive and forward-looking companies across every industry and region — and the market is the world’s greatest engine for growth and wealth creation.

As the global economy expands and technology connects more people, investing is no longer just for the wealthy. As the Internet has opened access to information and fostered transparency, markets have become more democratic and resilient. With billions now taking part and a steady flow of capital, innovation, efficiency and long-term growth can thrive.

We believe that trend will only deepen over the next several decades. Innovation compounds — it doesn’t go backwards. We will not return to a world without smartphones or instant access to information. Advances in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, clean energy and global connectivity will continue to reshape how we live, how businesses grow and how people invest.

The stock market captures that progress in one place. It reflects human ingenuity, enterprise and adaptability, the very forces that have driven wealth creation for more than a century.

Yes, the market moves up and down in the short term — and it can be volatile, as we have seen repeatedly, especially in the last five years. But over time, it has rewarded investors who stay disciplined and participate in the growth of the global economy. The market remains liquid, transparent, and resilient.

We are never going to claim to know what will happen tomorrow. What we do know, however, is that history has consistently rewarded patience, discipline and time in the market. Our process is built on those principles, not on predictions.

That is why we remain committed to staying invested through every cycle, whether we are at an all-time high or a major low.

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History has shown the longer the period, the greater the chance of a positive outcome.

Graphs showing the performance of investments over different time periods.
Source: S&P 500 Index. S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks. The index is unmanaged and, therefore, has no expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

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After such a strong run in the markets, it’s natural for investors to wonder: What matters most right now?

It is easy to feel confident when markets are rising, but confidence can fade quickly when volatility returns. Even if markets were to drop 30% next week, however, we would maintain the same steady long-term view that the stock market is the best place to generate wealth and value.

The market goes up and down, but over time it has always rewarded those who stay invested. The chart below shows two hypothetical investments in the S&P 500 over a 20-year period. Each investor contributed $10,000 per year, but one investor picked the best day to invest each year, and the other investor picked the worst day each year. Even with the worst market timing each year, the average annual return would have been 10.54%, compared to the best return of 12.25%.

The takeaway: Even selecting the worst day to invest, if you continue investing, you would have come out ahead.

Timing Isn’t Critical to Long-Term Success

Table showing the value of investments on different trading days.
Source: S&P 500 Index

This is why we believe the stock market is the place to be. We are not basing this opinion on speculation, but rather we are participating in the ongoing story of growth, innovation and progress.

We are not trying to outguess the market. We are following evidence that shows that long-term investors who stay the course come out ahead. Our strength is in discipline and consistency, not in forecasting. That is why we keep investing, why we add during periods of opportunity, and why we trust the strategy that has worked over decades, not days.

We are not here to shy away from where we are in the market at any given moment. We are here to follow our process, remain long-term focused and trust the history that has rewarded investors for generations.

Promo for an article titled The Case for Staying Invested: The Market High Is Not a Warning Sign.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client. 

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading. We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy — and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: Capital Group, S&P 500