Market Movement Archives | Page 11 of 21

Are We in a Recession? Here Are the Indicators You Should Be Watching

Reports last week indicated that gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by -0.9% for the second quarter of the year, the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth after the first-quarter decline of -1.6%. As a reminder, GDP is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders during a specific time period, adjusted for inflation.

Many investors and economists accept that a recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. However, negative GDP growth alone may be insufficient to describe a recession. Typically, we see rising defaults from companies and individuals as well as higher unemployment during a recession. As we have often written before, the National Bureau of Economic Research — a private research organization and the official arbiter of identifying recessions in the U.S. — describes a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity, spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” This definition leaves a lot of room for interpretation.

The following are other observable and measurable economic conditions that could be recession indicators:

• Decline in real GDP: As stated above, we have seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Expectations for GDP growth have continued to decrease. Annual GDP growth rates remain positive, but estimates continue to be lowered as the year progresses.
• Decline in real income: Real median household income takes time to calculate due to revisions in inflation data. Data from May shows that personal income increased by .5%, disposable personal income increased by .5% and personal consumption expenditures increased by .2%. However, real disposal personal income decreased by .1%. Why the difference? Inflation. Remember, real income — also known as real wage — is how much money one makes after adjusting for inflation.
• Decline in employment: The unemployment rate has remained steady at 3.6% for five months in a row and arguably represents near full employment for the economy. The low unemployment rate combined with the rise in wages may suggest that consumers are somewhat resilient to a potential recession and economic slowdown.
• Decline in industrial production: The industrial production index measures levels of production and capacity in the manufacturing, mining, electric and gas industries. Industrial production for June declined .2%, and prior months also were revised lower. The average monthly gain so far this year, however, remains positive at .4%. Industrial production increased at an annual rate of 6.1% for the second quarter. In a recession, we typically would see strong negative levels in the industrial production index.
• Decline in wholesale/retail sales: The consumer has remained strong and resilient for the first half of the year. The most recent wholesale report showed an increase of .5% and an increase in 20.9% from the May 2021 level. The most recent retail sales report exceeded expectations and showed an increase of 1% from the previous month and 8.4% above June 2021.

If a recession were to occur, remember that not all recessions are the same. Recessions generally fall into three categories:

• Asset bubble recession: Think of the recession from the technology bubble in 2000 or the great financial crisis of 2008, caused by the housing crisis. This typically leads to a larger financial crisis and results in steep market declines.
• Geopolitically driven recession: These are based on events such as the oil embargo of 1973-1974 or the COVID recession of 2020. They are typically the shortest in duration because they are event-driven.
• Cyclical slowdown recession: This type of recession is usually the least extreme and occurs when there is a shift in supply and demand. As the chart below shows, cyclical slowdown recessions going back to 1947 decline 19.2% on average and have a very strong return the following year.

Average Equity Drawdown and Recovery During Recessions since 1947

While the probability of a recession has increased, recessions in and of themselves are unavoidable. The economic indicators listed above will continue to provide us measurable data about the U.S. economy.

In spite of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the labor market remains strong, consumers seem resilient today, and output shows that supply-chain issues may be resolving themselves, especially with automobiles. Remember, recessions don’t last forever, and neither do bear markets.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading. We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy and the stock market.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: AssetMark, Investopedia, Lord Abbett

Promo for article titled The Portfolio Changes We're Making as the Third Quarter Begins

This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

The Portfolio Changes We’re Making as the Third Quarter Begins

This is a big week for the stock market: Earnings season is under way with many of the large-cap names reporting this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates another 75 basis points (.75%), and second-quarter GDP estimates are set to be released. Many economists predict that this will be the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth, signaling to many that we are in a recession.

However, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. The bureau does not define it as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Nonetheless, the stock market — which is a leading indicator — has been signaling for most of this year that the economy is slowing and a recession is possible.

The chart below is a stark reminder of how the market performed the first half of 2022. There are many reasons for the broad-based declines in all asset classes – the ongoing war in Ukraine, China’s zero-COVID policy, fears of economic slowdown and — lest we forget — inflation. Stock markets look forward, pricing in what investors think will happen, not what is happening right now. As such, current stock and bond prices already reflect the significant economic slowdown, if not a full recession. Bear markets do end, and when they do, a bull market will ensue.

Q2 2022 Index Returns

Chart showing index returns for the first half of 2022 by sector — ***Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and not subject to fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.*** Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective. Source: Kestra Investment Management with data from FactSet. Index proxies: Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, Bloomberg US AGG Bond Index, S&P US TIPS, ICE BofA US High Yield, S&P 500, MSCI World ex USA, MSCI EM, Dow Jones US Select REIT, Dow Jones Global X US & Bloomberg Commodity Index. Data as of July 15, 2022.

Knowing that bear markets will end and that they do not last as long as bull markets, we are in the process of reallocating and rebalancing our client portfolios to account for where we think the market is heading, not where it has been. We are making the following changes:

1. Earlier this year, we took additional profits in technology and healthcare and transitioned into broader value-based equities as well as mid-cap stocks for further diversification. From a long-term perspective, we believe strongly in both the technology and healthcare sectors and maintain broad exposure to both. Typically, in the late business cycle and entering a recession, we see growth moderating, credit tightening up, earnings coming under pressure and inventories growing as sales fall. With earnings season under way, we already have seen many Wall Street analysts and companies reduce earnings forecasts based on the strong dollar and the weakening economy. This must happen for the market to reach a bottom.

2. As we have written in the past, one of the positives of a down market is the ability to tax-loss harvest. Tax-loss harvesting does not always have to occur at year end. As a reminder, under current tax law, it’s possible to offset current capital gains with capital losses you’ve incurred during the year or carried over from a prior tax return. Capital gains are the profits you realize when you sell an investment for more than paid for it, while capital losses are the losses you realize when you sell an investment for less than you paid for it.

Short-term capital gains are taxed as ordinary income rates, whereas long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower capital gains rate. Being able to reduce the tax on both short- and long-term capital gains by harvesting losses can help offset the gains one incurs from taking profits. Harvesting the loss has no effect on the portfolio value, since one can use the proceeds from the sale to buy a similar investment. This allows the investor to maintain similar asset allocation and reduce federal income taxes. We want to take advantage now of several holdings trading at a loss and swap out those holdings to capture the loss while maintaining similar asset class exposure. We swapped out our small- and mid-cap funds, as well as the international fund, to harvest the current losses.

3. From a fixed-income perspective, we shortened the duration of the portfolio late last year as we anticipated higher interest rates in 2022. This has played out as we envisioned. While the fixed-income markets have not been spared the downdraft of the overall markets, we feel that most of the interest-rate change is accounted for in the bond market. Therefore, we are increasing the overall maturity of the portfolio to capture the higher yields that the market offers. At the same time, we are substituting a tax-free municipal bond position instead of a taxable bond fund, as municipal bonds offer great value in this market.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading.

We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. We strategically have new cash on the sidelines and buy in for clients on down days or dips in the market – as one does with a 401K.

In the short term, the sentiment and the outlook for the global economy remain negative. Economists are debating whether the United States is in a recession, and if so, what this means. Regardless, we continually speak with our clients about staying the course and not listening to the noise. Even if we entera recession, every recession ultimately ends and expansion ensues, with an accompanying bull market.

We will continue to drive home the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and in having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Source: Kestra Investment Management

Promo for article titled Midterm Elections Are Around the Corner. What Does This Mean for the Market?

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Midterm Elections are Right Around the Corner. What Does This Mean for the Market?

We are more than halfway through 2022, and the midterm elections are right around the corner. Midterm elections for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives have the potential to shift control of Congress, and they can also have a significant impact on taxes, laws, and foreign policy. If Republicans gain control of either the Senate or the House, we can expect to see a legislative gridlock. If Republicans gain control of both bodies of Congress, President Biden’s agenda will face strong headwinds. If Democrats were to retain control of both the House and Senate, we would likely see significant changes to spending and taxation.

What does this mean for the market? While we can’t predict future results, we can examine how previous midterm cycles have affected it. Let’s take a look at past performance during midterm cycles:

The S&P 500 has historically underperformed in the 12 months leading up to the midterm elections. Since 1962, in the 12 months prior to a midterm election, the average annual return of the S&P 500 is 0.3%, well below the historical average of 8.1% . ¹

The post-midterm election period is very different. The S&P 500 has historically outperformed the market in the 12-month period after the election, with an average return of 16.3%. This is also true for the one-month and three-month periods following midterm elections. Since 1962, there has not been one instance in which the S&P 500 has experienced a negative return either six months or 12 months following the midterm elections, as shown in the chart below.

chart of market performance before and after midterm election cycles — *Source: U.S. Bank*

Midterm election years are historically more volatile than the rest of the presidential cycle. As seen in the chart below, the second and third quarters have historically been the most volatile. The average S&P 500 intra-year decline in midterm election years is 19%. In the other three years of the presidential cycle, the average decline is just 13%.

The past three midterm election corrections (2002, 2010 and 2018) were definitely painful, and this year is proving no different. The timing of this year’s decline has been faster than usual, largely due to the issues that we continue to discuss: heightened inflation, geopolitical risk from the Ukraine war, and China’s restrictions due to the ongoing global pandemic. Additionally, the market has been trending very similar to 1982, a year in which we were also dealing with high inflation, Russia and a midterm election all at the same time.

graph showing spikes in market volatility in midterm election years

The chart below also shows how the market has pulled back in each of the midterm election years dating back to 1962 — and rebounded the one year following the correction low. In each instance, the S&P 500 had a strong bounce back. The second chart below shows that, the earlier the decline in the midterm election year, the stronger the recovery. For example, corrections that began before September had a negative return of 21% on average, while their subsequent rebound was 34% on average for the following one year. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, analyzing historical data does offer insight into how midterm elections might affect the market in the coming year and beyond.

charts showing market corrections and rebounds during midterm election years — *Source: Baird*

Depending on which party controls Congress, U.S. fiscal policy may change after the election. However, economic fundamentals — and not election results — play the greatest role in stock market performance. How the Fed steers the economy amid ongoing inflation concerns will continue to be the dominant market driver. The last time the S&P 500 produced negative returns during the 12 months after a midterm election was 1939 – a time of terrible uncertainty. The U.S. was still battling the Great Depression, and World War II was beginning in Europe.

So, what can we learn from all this? Past results do not guarantee future returns. However, if the past gives us any insight, the 12 months following the midterm elections may see a strong market rebound. That said, it is important to be mindful that every individual year is different, and it follows its own path. U.S. midterm elections, and politics as a whole, come with a lot of noise and uncertainty. Investors should not let that be a distraction from the fact that long-term equity returns are generated by solid investment fundamentals over time. It is imperative to look past the short-term volatility that elections may bring and maintain a long-term focus.

We will continue to harp on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip to take advantage of potential market upturns. We adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and remember that over time, markets tend to rise. During volatile markets, it is important to remember that the fear of losing money is stronger than the joy of making money. Investor emotions can have a big impact on retirement outcomes. Market corrections and bear markets are normal; nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Baird, Bloomberg, Forbes Advisor, U.S. Bank

1. Looking at 12-month periods when the price return is closing price on Oct 31.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

What Does a Stronger U.S. Dollar Mean for You?

For the first time in nearly two decades, the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar is roughly the same. The parity in the two currencies comes after the euro has plunged almost 20% in value over the last 14 months compared to the dollar. This year, the U.S. dollar has gained against most major currencies, as the Fed’s interest rate hikes have made the dollar a safe haven for investors worldwide who are seeking protection against surging global inflation.

The chart below shows the value of the euro compared to the dollar since 1999 and the wild swings that may occur in the currency markets.

When the Federal Reserve raises rates, as it has done several times this year, Treasury yields also tend to move higher. This attracts more money into the U.S. from international investors, who in turn buy dollar-denominated bonds in hopes of obtaining higher yields than they can obtain in their own countries. The higher the yield, the better the return. The Federal Reserve has raised rates more aggressively in 2022 than many other central banks around the globe.

Another potential dynamic causing the strength of the U.S. dollar is the idea that the U.S. is a safe haven for investments, compared to many other countries. Russia’s war with Ukraine has caused considerable geopolitical and economic uncertainty in Europe. At the same time, China’s zero-COVID policy has been another drag on the global economy. While there is uncertainty in the U.S. regarding a potential recession, the bond market (i.e., U.S. Treasuries) remains a safe investment compared to other countries, boosting the dollar’s attractiveness.

Why does the strength of the U.S. dollar matter? For those traveling overseas, a strong dollar is quite advantageous. A stronger American dollar goes much farther abroad and provides more buying power. Everything is cheaper for Americans traveling out of the country.

From an investment standpoint, the implications may be different. U.S.-based companies that have large international businesses are likely to suffer from a stronger dollar, primarily because converting overseas profits earned in weaker currencies into U.S. dollars can weigh on sales as well as earnings. Income from foreign sales will decrease in value on balance sheets because the foreign currency value has lost value. At the same time, domestically produced goods become more expensive abroad as the dollar increases compared to the currency where the goods are being shipped and then sold, driving down earnings.

On the other hand, goods produced abroad and imported to the United States will be cheaper with a stronger dollar. For example, a luxury car made in Italy will fall in price in dollars with the current parity between the dollar and the euro. If a car costs 70,000 euros and the exchange rate is 1.35, then it costs $94,500. However, if the exchange rate falls to 1.12, it would cost just $78,400.

Many companies will employ hedging techniques that may help improve gross profit margins and recover some of the lost revenue from the strong dollar. Some companies may sell their products overseas, and that may help them recover lost revenue from lower production costs. It also is important to note that currency swings of this magnitude tend to be short-lived.

Promo for an article titled How Will the Economy Fare in the Second Half of 2022?

So, what can we learn from all this? While the U.S. dollar is at parity with the euro for the first time in over 20 years, it is critical to remember that the overarching approach to investing in stocks and bonds is based on long-term fundamentals. There will be quarter-to-quarter fluctuations, currency headwinds and currency tailwinds with every company that performs business in multiple countries. The primary focus is to look at the underlying fundamentals of the businesses and not become consumed with shorter-term currency moves that may affect business for a quarter or two. In the meantime, if you have a trip planned overseas, enjoy the benefits of a stronger dollar.

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and in having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: CNBC, Fortune, Investopedia, MSN

Promo for an article titled Understanding the Importance of Market Liquidity

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

How Will the Economy Fare in the Second Half of 2022?

The U.S. economy and the stock market struggled mightily in the first half of 2022, and the S&P 500 had its worst start in 52 years. Inflation levels not seen since the 1980s — combined with aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, the effects of the Russia/Ukraine war and continued COVID lockdowns in China — sent the S&P 500 into a bear market. While the S&P 500 officially crossed into a bear market in mid-June, many of the underlying stock holdings had been in a bear market for a while, which is similar with the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ as well.

The market attempted several rallies during the first half of the year, but aggressive Fed policy and the removal of liquidity from the stock market kept pressure on stocks. As a result of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve and Congress added trillions of dollars to the economy in the last few years. The Fed began aggressive interest rate hikes and stopped bond purchases to remove excess liquidity from the economy and slow down inflation. Fears of a recession have intensified, and more companies are lowering earnings guidance for the second half of the year.

The bond market also had a difficult six months. Inflation spiked higher than anticipated, and rates rose more rapidly than the market expected. Bonds were down almost 10% for the first half of the year. As the economy continues to show signs of slowing down, with a potential recession on the horizon, the 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to under 3%. The bond market is showing signs that the Federal Reserve may have to slow down the rate of increase and potentially even reduce interest rates in 2023.

We do not know when the bear market will come to an end, but we do know that it will come to an end.

As we recently wrote, the average bear market since 1929 has lasted 9½ months. Going back to World War II, the average bear market has lasted 12 months, and it has taken 21 months on average to break even after a bear market. The chart below shows the peaks and troughs of every bear market since WWII. On average, it has taken much longer to reach 20% losses than it takes to reach a bottom. Seven out of the last 12 bear markets have bottomed in 46 days or less, once the 20% barrier was breached.

Chart showing peaks and troughs of previews bear markets — *Source: Ben Carlson, A Wealth of Common Sense.*

The chart below shows how the S&P 500 bounced back after first-half falls of 15% or more. The sample size is small, however, with only five instances going back to 1932. The S&P 500 did rise in each of these instances, with an average return of 23.66% and a median rise of 15.25%.

S&P 500 second-half performance after a first-half fall of 15% or more

Chart showing S&P 500 second-half performance after 15% fall in the first half — *Source: Dow Jones Market Data, MarketWatch.*

Looking at the Dow Jones Index provides a larger sample size. The Dow Jones has had 15 instances of first-half declines of greater than 10%. The Dow was down almost 15% for the first half of the year, its largest decline since 2008. More than two-thirds of the time, the Dow rallied in the second half of the year for an average return of 4.45% and a median return of almost 7%.

DJIA second-half performance after 10% fall in first half

Chart showing Dow Jones second-half performance after 10% fall in the first half — *Source: Dow Jones Market Data, MarketWatch.*

Please remember that past results do not guarantee future returns. Time will tell how the market responds to the current bear market. The charts above provide some great context for staying invested and hope that positive market returns may be around the corner.

So, what can we learn from all this? For the second half of 2022, we anticipate volatility to remain in both the equity and fixed-income markets. Our plan is to remain invested, take advantage of the markets being down by tax loss harvesting, and as always, to make the necessary tweaks to the portfolio as the economy continues to change. It appears more evident that the U.S. is headed towards a recession. GDP is likely to show two straight quarters of negative growth, a traditional sign that the economy is in a recession. Remember, though, that the stock market is a leading indicator and is already projecting that the economy is softening. Once the economy is in an official recession, the market is forward-looking and heading towards a recovery.

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Ben Carlson, Dow Jones Data, Schwab

Promo for article titled Here's Why Today's Housing Market is Different From 2008

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Here’s Why Today’s Housing Market Is Different from 2008

For homeowners, the increase in home prices over the last 16 months has been impressive. Nationally, home prices increased more than 20% year over year through April, with Florida leading the pack at more than 30%. It’s not a surprise for those of us who live in Texas to see that home prices have surged more than 20% during the last year.

Map showing price changes in the U.S. housing market — *Source: CoreLogic*

Rising interest rates have led to a drastic increase in the 30-year fixed mortgage loan rate. Last week, that rate hit 5.8%. By comparison, the rate at the start of 2022 was slightly higher than 3%. The low mortgage rates that we experienced over the last several years had been a real boon to the housing market and a big cause of the increase in home prices.

With the drastic increase in home prices, many are starting to wonder if this is setting up to be a repeat of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) that we witnessed in 2008. The underlying drivers for this housing market appear dramatically different. Here are several reasons that we feel the housing market today will not experience a repeat of 2008:

• The housing market today is in better health thanks to new lending regulations that resulted from the GFC. The chart below shows the credit quality of loans today compared with the time leading up to the GFC. Today, more than 70% of home loans go to those with credit scores over 720. The average borrower’s FICO score today is 751, a record high.

The higher score wins

Graphic showing credit scores of borrowers in today's housing market — *Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg as of 3/31/2022*

• Home prices soared during the last two years as demand rocketed during the pandemic. Homeowners today have record levels of home equity due to the increase in prices. The amount of equity that homeowners can access is over $11 trillion, a 34% increase compared to last year.

• The amount of leverage — how much debt the homeowner has against the home’s value — has fallen dramatically. Total mortgage debt is less than 43% of total home values, the lowest on record. Negative equity is basically non-existent. (In 2011, one in four borrowers were underwater.) Today, mortgage payments as a percentage of consumer’s disposable income are just 3.8%, about half of what it was before 2008.

Mortgage Debt Service Payments as % of Disposable Income

• There are 2.5 million adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), accounting for about 8% of all active mortgages and the lowest volume on record. In 2007, there were 13.1 million ARMS, representing 36% of all mortgages. More than 80% of today’s ARMs operate under a fixed rate for the first seven to 10 years.

• Mortgage delinquencies are at a record low, with about 3% of mortgages past due. There are fewer past-due mortgages than there were before the pandemic.

• Following the Great Financial Crisis, a decade of underbuilding of homes ensued. As the millennial population is reaching peak home-buying age, there are millions of first-time home buyers waiting for the opportunity to purchase their first home.

Higher mortgage rates are already having the intended effect of slowing down housing prices. Existing home sales fell for the fourth straight month in May, and “further sales declines should be expected in the upcoming months given housing affordability challenges from the sharp rise in mortgage rates this year,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Existing buyers are still competing for a low supply of houses as builders face issues with supply chain, labor shortages and a decade of underbuilding. Higher rates taking some of the momentum from the housing market is not necessarily a bad thing for the economy and may help the Federal Reserve soft-land the economy (instead of a feared crash landing).

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So, what can we learn from all this? We understand the concern that investors have comparing today’s housing market to that of the pre–GFC market crash. We take comfort in the fact that the amount of leverage and types of loans today are nowhere near what we witnessed during the GFC bubble. Lending has been in favor of those with much higher credit scores. Household balance sheets are in much better shape, and the percentage of one’s disposable income spent on mortgages is at an all-time low. We do not believe that the housing market will see a similar relapse to what we experienced in 2008. We will continue to closely monitor the housing market and its effect on the economy.

We will continue to harp on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: CoreLogic, Federal Reserve Board, Kestra Investment Management, Schwab

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

How Has the Market Performed After Its Worst Years?

Last week was another tough week for the stock market. Major U.S. market indexes have now traded down 10 out of the last 11 weeks. Stock market losses occur for various reasons: Sometimes they are driven by excessive market valuations, like the tech bubble of 2000, and sometimes they are driven by external market events, such as a war or a global pandemic.

If the year were to end today, 2022 would be the sixth worst year in stock market history, as the S&P 500 is currently down 22.3% year to date. During times like these it is important to maintain perspective and know that even the worst market years will come to an end. Here are some points to keep in mind:

•The S&P 500 had 25 negative years between 1928 to 2021, meaning that 27% of the time, the market experienced a down year, while 73% of the time the market had positive returns.

•Of the 25 negative years, 11 of those were double-digit losses as seen in the chart below.

a chart of the S&P 500's worst years and its returns after 1, 3, and 5 years

• The market has experienced two consecutive years of negative returns eight times since 1928. It has experienced three consecutive years of negative returns three times in this same period, however, this has only happened once since the Great Depression.

• The longer-term returns following the worst performing stock markets have been strong. The average three-year return is +35% while the average five-year return is +80%.

• The results for the year that follows a worst performing year are mixed, however, there has only been one three-year period with negative returns, which was during the Great Depression.

• Every five-year period following one of the worst years in the stock market saw positive returns.

• Since 1929, there have been 26 bear markets, 15 of which were tied to recessions. The average length of a bear market in the S&P 500 index has been 9 ½ months. For bear markets that have been tied to a recession, the average decline is 35%, while those without a recession have experienced an average loss of 25%.

• The chart below is a history of bull and bear markets since 1942. During that time, the average cumulative return of a bull market has been 155%, while the average bear market has a loss of 32%. It is important to note the length of time of a bull market compared to a bear market: The bull market has lasted, on average, 4.4 years, while the bear market has only lasted 11 months on average.

graph depicting the duration of bull and bear markets and their returns

Even after the worst years in the stock market, the markets have always bounced back. Those who remain disciplined in a down market, like we are in today, have the potential to enjoy better times ahead. Historically, the longer you stay invested, the greater the possibility you will have to reach your long-term goals.

So, what can we learn from all this? Today’s markets are certainly a challenging environment; however, when focused on long-term investing, there is no reason to panic. Since 1929, markets have experienced numerous challenges including multiple wars, asset bubbles, recessions, and a global pandemic. In each of these challenging times, companies and people have adapted and responded to get back on track. Investing will always be uncertain but sticking to the financial plan is critical to avoid short-sighted decisions. As Warren Buffet famously said, “The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.”

What really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people. — Warren Buffet

link to related content about the importance of staying invested

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Assetmark, Ben Carlson, Fact-Set, First Trust, PGIM

What Should Investors Consider in a Bear Market?

Markets are good at reminding investors that stock prices don’t always go up. U.S. stocks continued their sharp drop on Monday after Friday’s inflation report, which showed that consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in 41 years. Although economists were already seeing signs of peak inflation with home, used car and lumber prices decreasing, the war in Ukraine’s effect on oil and gas prices led to a much stronger increase in the month-over-month consumer price index (CPI). As the markets braced for the Federal Reserve’s announcement on interest rate hikes, stocks in the S&P 500 again entered bear market territory, closing more than 20% below their all-time highs (which were set earlier this year). As we’ve written recently, bear markets, last an average of 15 months, while the average bull market lasts about six years. The chart below is a great reminder that on average, stocks have performed well three, six and 12 months after falling into a bear market.

Down markets provide investors with opportunities that may help with returns, reduce risk and provide tax advantages over time. What should you consider in a down market like the one we have today?

First, and foremost, do not panic

Panic is not an investing strategy. Selling and going into cash when the market is down can do irreparable harm to your long-term financial outlook. There is a reason you have a financial plan, and now more than ever is the time to stick with it.

Rebalancing portfolios

Investment portfolio construction, when done properly, is made up of various securities and asset classes that each perform differently. You may have often heard the term “asset allocation,” which references how a portfolio is constructed of stocks, bonds, cash, etc. Within each of these categories, there are different investment exposures. For stocks, the exposures might be small-cap, mid-cap, large-cap and international, while bond exposure may have investment-grade bonds, high-yield bonds, floating-rate bonds, treasuries, etc. By combining each of the different asset classes together, the overall risk of the portfolio may be reduced.

Over time, the portfolio may need to be rebalanced. Think of it like taking your car in for a tune-up after hitting a big pothole or speed bump. After large market moves, either up or down, a portfolio may benefit from tweaks or adjustments. The graph below displays how a portfolio needs a tune-up. Following the pandemic, a portfolio that had a 50-50 stock/bond allocation has grown to 65% stocks and 35% bonds a year and a half later, due to the run up in the market. Rebalancing helps investors ensure that they’re taking an acceptable level of portfolio risk and adhering to their set financial plan. It also helps with the adage of “buy low and sell high.”

Without Rebalancing, Large Market Moves Can Add Risk to a Portfolio

Tax-Loss Harvesting

When markets are rising and stocks or funds are sold for a profit, taxable gains occur. While taxable gains are not necessarily fun, they are a necessary part of investing. Selling holdings when the values are down may generate losses, which can be used to offset capital gains and potentially lower your future tax bill. Investment losses may also be used to reduce taxes on ordinary income. For further details, please see our past client letter on tax-loss harvesting.

Dollar-Cost Averaging*

Who doesn’t like shopping when their favorite items are 20% off or even more? With Monday’s losses, the S&P 500 is down nearly 22% from its high in January. The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are down almost 30% from their recent highs. Investing in stocks when prices are down can be a powerful way to generate wealth over time. We recognize that it may be hard to invest more cash into the market when it is falling, but that is where dollar-cost averaging comes into play. For those in a 401K plan, this is exactly what you are doing – every two weeks you are investing money into the portfolio, whether the market is up or down.

There are very few free lunches in the investment world. As the saying goes, if it is too good to be true, then more than likely it is. However, asset allocation, diversification and periodic rebalancing are as close as it gets to a free lunch for investors. We are fully aware that down markets can be painful. At the same time, they can create opportunities for those who have excess cash. The chart below is a great reminder that historically, bull markets last much longer than bear markets, and the total return of a bull market far outweighs the negative return during a bear market.

So, what can we learn from all this? Sticking with the financial plan during times like these can be a real challenge – but that is why you have the plan. If we use our heads and don’t act on emotion, we can expect a more successful investing future — and maybe even get a free lunch along the way, thanks to rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting and dollar-cost averaging.

During these challenging times, it is important to keep the following in mind:

• Ignore the noise and sensationalist headlines.
• Remember that selling into a panic is not an investment strategy.
• Market declines are a part of economic cycles.
• Don’t try to time the market. Instead invest regularly, even when the market is falling.

It is likely that this recent market drop may be a mere blip in the long-term investment plan. We do not try to time the market. What really matters is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sticking with the financial plan during times like these can be a real challenge – but that is why you have the plan.

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and remember that over time, markets tend to rise. During volatile markets, it is it is important to remember that the fear of losing money is stronger than the joy of making money. Investor emotions can have a big impact on retirement outcomes. Market corrections are normal; nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Kestra Investment Management, LPL, Schwab

*Dollar cost averaging does not assure a profit and does not protect against a loss in declining markets. This strategy involves continuous investing; you should consider your financial ability to continue purchases no matter how prices fluctuate.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Don’t Let the Word ‘Recession’ Scare You: Here’s What History Has to Say

There have been 13 recessions since World War II — and three of them were in this century. Some say a fourth may be on the way. But what, exactly is a recession?

According to economists, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Last month, the S&P 500 briefly plunged into a bear market as investors digested inflation, rising rates, the war in Ukraine and increased lockdowns in China. On average, recessions since World War II have lasted 11.1 months. The longest was the Great Recession, which lasted 18 months, from December 2007 to June 2009. Conversely, the shortest recession, caused by the global pandemic, lasted two months. Since World War II, we have gone an average of 58 months — nearly five years — between recessions.

Knowing this, it is important to keep the following in perspective:

A recession is not the same as a down stock market.

The stock market is based on expectations for the economy looking forward; stocks can move up during a recession or down when the economy is expanding. Economic recessions may not be identified until months after they begin. The chart below shows market returns during the year of the recession, as well as the year following the recession. In all but three of the 13 recession years, the following year posted strong, positive returns.

a list of the stock market's returns in recession years

Recessions can be started by imbalances in the economy, i.e. financial crises.

Recessions can also occur from external shocks, such as a global pandemic or war. For the recession to end, the imbalances must stabilize.

Stocks can grow in a contracting economy.

Although down markets sometimes coincide with recessions, the stock market produced positive returns during seven of the 13 recessions since World War II, and the S&P 500 gained an average of 3.68% during these recessions (see chart below).

graph of the S&P 500's returns since 1945

Recessions and expansions are normal phases of the economic cycle.

As seen in the chart below, the business cycle flows from expansion in economic activity to a peak, and from that peak to a recession (an economic slowdown), before reaching bottom. The bottom leads to economic recovery, and the cycle repeats itself. Each cycle is different. The period within each phase may also be different, but ultimately, expansions and recessions are normal occurrences.

The U.S. economy grows more than it contracts.

Recessions in the United States have lasted about 11 months on average. The Great Recession, which followed the financial crisis, lasted 18 months. However, the expansion that followed the recession lasted more than 10 years. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that the worse a recession, the stronger the expansion that followed it.

Not all stocks are created equal.

Recessions impact various sectors of the economy differently. Cyclical sectors, such as travel and consumer discretionary spending, are more impacted during downtimes, while other sectors, such as utilities, are necessities regardless of where we are in the business cycle.

Individual countries can enter recessions without involving the rest of the world.

According to the World Bank, there have been six global recessions since 1950, compared to the 13 in the U.S. during the same time frame.

Not all downturns and recoveries are the same.

Recoveries can also take different forms, as shown in the chart below. The recession of 2020 was a strong V-shape, with a quick drop, followed by a quick recovery. This is best case scenario. The U-shaped recession signals a decline that takes a year or two to recover. The W-shape is the dreaded double-dip recession that we witnessed in the early 1980s, while The Great Depression was similar to an L-shaped or hockey stick recession.

diagrams showing the different shapes of recessions

So, what can we learn from all this? Recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. Just because the U.S. economy may have a recession does not mean it will be 2008 all over again and the stock market will experience similar pain. The stock market is a leading economic indicator, but most often it has already started to recover by the time the economy is officially in recession.

During these challenging times, it is important to keep the following in mind:

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and remember that over time, markets tend to rise. During volatile markets, it is it is important to remember that the fear of losing money is stronger than the joy of making money. Investor emotions can have a big impact on retirement outcomes. Market corrections are normal; nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Forbes, Hartford, Kiplinger, NBER, World Economic Forum

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

What You Should Know About Stagflation

Many economists were predicting a return to the Roaring Twenties at the start of 2022: Businesses would resume full operations and consumers would spend their accumulated savings, much like what happened after the 1918 influenza pandemic.

Yet the first six months of 2022 have been anything but “roaring.” COVID-related supply chain shutdowns in China, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and higher-than-expected inflation rates have caused economic growth forecasts to deteriorate. The Federal Reserve is in the process of raising rates to combat inflation, but if it is unable to soft-land the economy, it may force the country into a recession. We could see elevated prices, and at the same time, a slowed economy. This is known as stagflation.

What is stagflation?

Stagflation occurs when high inflation and slow economic growth (the decline in gross domestic product or GDP) occur at the same time. High unemployment is often a factor with stagflation, as well. Businesses respond to decreasing growth by cutting costs and laying off employees, which in turn pushes unemployment rates to higher levels. The possible loss of income increases with rising unemployment, and those households that manage to keep their jobs see their purchasing power eroded by higher inflation. This is what we experienced in the 1970s.

promo for article on bonds in today's market

What happened in the 1970s?

The 1970s was a time of unprecedented poor policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. These policy decisions exacerbated rising inflation and geopolitical events, causing a major shock for oil and economic growth. For example, the oil embargo by OPEC in 1973 caused the global price of oil to rise dramatically, leading the cost of goods to increase and unemployment to rise as well. The 1970s also saw increased regulation of markets, goods and labor. Union membership was significantly higher in the 1970s, contributing to increased labor costs. Inflation hit double digits and interest rates climbed rapidly, rising to nearly 20% in the early ’80s.

How does this differ from today?

Over the past two years, the government has spent huge sums of money through multiple rounds of stimulus payments while the Fed has kept interest rates low to jumpstart the economy. The economy is still doing well: Corporate earnings are strong; unemployment is near record lows; and signs that inflation is peaking are starting to show. While GDP did contract 1.5% in the first quarter of 2022, the weakness was not the result of a fundamental slowdown in economic activity. Rather, we saw businesses stockpile inventory due to supply chain shortages in the fourth quarter of 2021, and in the first quarter of 2022 we saw a reversal as consumers ate away at inventory levels. Today, we are significantly less dependent on foreign oil compared to 50 years ago. Higher oil prices overseas do not play as significant a role as they did in the ’70s and ’80s. Also, we have a growing number of electric vehicles and cars are much more fuel efficient, getting three times more miles to the gallon than in the ’70s.

promo for blog post on how to help investors worry less about the markets

While mortgage rates in the ’80s hit 15%, the average home price was $73,000. The mortgage payment, adjusted for inflation, would have been $3,400 per month today. With current mortgage rates at 5% (up from 3% at the start of the year) and the average home price at $400,000, the average mortgage payment today is $2,400. This is still $1,000 less per month compared to rates in 1970s, when adjusted for inflation.

A large degree of uncertainty remains, and the potential threat of stagflation is real. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China threaten to further disrupt the global supply chain, negatively impact energy prices and interfere with economies around the world. While inflation has shown some signs of waning, it is still not under control in the U.S. and overseas. Yet slower economic growth is still a more likely scenario than stagflation. Hopefully, the Federal Reserve’s leadership has learned much from the policy mistakes in the 1970s.

How can you combat stagflation?

First and foremost, as we repeat each week, it is not wise to panic and sell out of the market. Instead, continue to focus on the fundamentals of savings and diversification. During times of recession or stagflation, prioritize your spending and saving to align with your financial goals. It also may make sense to delay expensive purchases. Consider using excess money to pay down debt, build up an emergency fund or dollar-cost average into your portfolio. Few economists agree on how to stop stagflation once it has started, meaning it may cause long-term pain to businesses and middle-class and lower-wage households.

promo for blog post on market volatility

So, what can we learn from all this? History tends to repeat itself, but the story may be a bit different each time. There are several differences between the 1970s and today, and even though stagflation is a possibility, that doesn’t mean it will result in a 10-year period of double recessions and super-high inflation. It is always difficult to see the value of your investments fall.

During these challenging times, it is important to keep the following in mind:

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan.

Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and remember that over time, markets tend to rise. During volatile markets, it’s important to remember that the fear of losing money is stronger than the joy of making money. Investor emotions can have a big impact on retirement outcomes. Market corrections are normal; nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Financial Times, Investopedia, Kestra Investment Management, Time

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.