Market Movement Archives | Page 12 of 20

The Fed is raising interest rates. What happens next?

The S&P 500 saw its biggest weekly gain since 2020 last week. The Federal Reserve announced the first interest rate hike since 2018, a 25-basis point increase in its target range for the federal funds rate, to a range of .25% to .50%. The fed-funds rate is an overnight rate on lending between banks that influences other consumer and business borrowing costs through the economy, including rates on mortgages, credit cards, savings accounts, car loans and corporate debt. Raising rates typically restrains spending, while cutting rates encourages borrowing.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell had signaled that a rate hike was coming, and the market was focused on the Fed’s guidance on the outlook for the economy, inflation and the future path of policy rates. In an effort to slow inflation, the Fed has penciled in six more increases by year end, the most aggressive pace in more than 15 years. The committee also sees three more rate hikes in 2023, with short-term rates ultimately between 2.5% and 3%.

The Fed’s economic projections are painting a scenario of a soft landing for the economy: inflation retreating while unemployment stays low and economic growth slows to a more long-term sustainable growth rate of 2% to 2.5%. The Fed is normalizing its policy as the economy no longer needs the pandemic-induced stimulus, and it also signaled that it would start reducing its balance sheet, marking the start of quantitative tightening.

“The committee is determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The U.S. economy is very strong and well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.” — Jerome Powell

Fed officials face three important questions as they consider their next moves:
• How quickly will it need to raise rates to a “neutral” level?
• Has the “neutral” level increased as rising inflation sends down borrowing costs?
• When will the Fed need to raise rates above neutral to deliberately slow growth?

Powell signaled greater concern that higher inflation might persist due to a hot job market with record job openings and wages increasing at their fastest pace in years. The central bank ended a long-running asset purchase stimulus program last week. Fed officials are facing the prospect of even higher inflation due to escalating sanctions by the West against Russia risking higher energy and commodity prices, combined with the new pandemic lockdowns in China further harming global supply chains.

Here are some of the effects we anticipate as the Fed embarks on raising rates:

Mortgages: While the federal funds rate doesn’t directly impact mortgage rates, they often move in the same manner. Despite mortgage rates moving higher, the current environment is still attractive if you’re looking to get a new mortgage or refinance your existing one.

Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC): Typically linked to prime rate, the costs of a HELOC will move higher as the Fed raises rates. Those with HELOCs should expect to see their payments continue to rise in the near term.

Savings accounts and CDs: Rising interest rates mean that banks will offer higher returns on their savings and money market rates. It may take time for banks to raise rates to the level of current fed funds rates; banks normally act quicker in cutting rates.

Equity markets: The stock market has been a big beneficiary of the Fed’s willingness to keep rates low. In the last few months, the market has been pricing in higher interest rates. The S&P 500 has historically delivered positive returns over the past six Fed hiking cycles, averaging a 9.5% annualized return, as seen in the chart below.

S&P 500 Annualized Total Return During Previous Fed Hiking Cycles (%)

So, what can we learn from all this? While the Fed has finally announced that it will raise rates to combat inflation, rates remain low by historical standards. The key message from the Fed is that it is focused on fighting inflation and is prepared to hike short-term interest rates steadily while reducing the balance sheet to attain its goals.

From a portfolio perspective, we continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. As we say each week, it is important to stay the course and focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Remember, first and foremost, that panic is not an investing strategy. Neither are “get in” or “get out” — those are just gambling on moments in time. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions, and remember that over a longer time horizon, markets tend to rise. Market corrections are normal, as nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: CNBC, Goldman Sachs

Promo for article titled It's Tax Time: What You Should Know Before You File Your Return

This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

It’s tax time: What you should know before you file your return

The April 15 deadline to file federal tax returns is approaching quickly, but the practice of tax planning shouldn’t be limited to once a year. Whether you are preparing your own returns or working with a CPA, staying informed about policy changes and regularly assessing your financial situation can help you build strategies that align with your goals.

What tax documents might you need?

• W-2: If you work for an employer, this form tells you how much you earned and how much was deducted for taxes and other withholdings.
• 1099-NEC (MISC): If you are a contract employee, this form tells you how much you earned.
• 1099-INT and 1099-DIV: If you earned interest from savings or investments, you may receive this form. The 1099-DIV reports dividends and distributions from investments.
• Consolidated 1099: This brokerage tax form will show income from dividends, both qualified and non-qualified, as well as any capital gains and losses that occurred during the year.
• 1099-R: If you take a distribution from your retirement account, this form shows the amount of distribution and amount of taxes withheld.
• 5498: This form reports your total annual contributions to an IRA account and identifies the type of retirement account you have.
• 1098: If you own a home and pay mortgage interest, you will receive this form, which shows how much interest you paid and can deduct.
• 1098-T: If you have a dependent in college, you will receive this form, which reports how much qualified tuition and expense was paid during the year.
• K-1: If you have any limited partner investments, you will receive this form, which shows each partner’s share of the earnings, losses, deductions and credits.

Do you know your tax bracket?

No one wants to pay more taxes than they must. Although the tax code has been simplified over the years, it remains incredibly complex. The number of tax brackets has been reduced significantly; knowing your bracket can help you determine the most tax-efficient investments to make. As shown in the chart below, investors in a high tax bracket may choose to own municipal bonds to reduce taxable income. If you are in a low tax bracket, you may be able to take advantage of lower capital gains rates and pay less on investments sold for a gain. As always, we recommend speaking with your CPA or accountant to review your options.

Did you know that not all investments are taxed the same?

TIP: Where your returns come from matters

Chart showing tax rates for types of investments

If you are in a higher tax bracket, the following strategies may make sense:
• If over age 70, using IRA monies to make charitable distributions to help reduce taxable income
• Delaying taking Social Security income to age 70
• Lumping charitable contributions together in one year to take advantage of itemizing on taxes

If you are in a lower tax bracket, the following strategies may make sense:
• Increasing withdrawals from IRAs up to the level of the current tax bracket
• Converting an IRA to a Roth IRA in a year of lower income taxes
• Deferring income and sale of capital gain property to postpone taxable income
• Bunching medical expenses in the current year to meet the percentage of your adjusted gross income to claim those deductions

How can you maximize your savings?

Regardless of your tax bracket, tax loss harvesting is a strategy worth understanding. With current market volatility, certain investments may have unrealized losses. Tax loss harvesting is the strategy of selling securities at a loss to offset a capital gain tax liability. You do not have to wait until year-end to deploy this strategy, and harvesting losses now allows you to offset taxable gains when the market rebounds.

Another common strategy is to maximize IRA contributions before April 15. If you currently contribute pre-tax money to a 401K and are not maximizing, consider increasing your contribution to reduce taxable income and help you long term for retirement planning.

You also may contribute to an IRA for your spouse if he or she is not working. The contributions may not be tax-deductible if you are both working — but this could be a good long-term strategy nonetheless. If you do not have a 401K, contributing to an IRA, Roth IRA or SEP IRA may help reduce taxable income. You may be able to deduct annual contributions of up to $6,000 to your traditional IRA and $6,000 to your spouse’s IRA ($7,000 if over age 50).

Here are some steps you and your advisor can consider before the end of the year:

Chart outlining financial planning steps such as 1. Review last two years of Form 1040 to better understand impact/source of investment taxes, 2. Do you know your possible los/gain situation heading into year end? 3. Do you know your marginal and average tax rates? Don't forget state taxes. Any circumstances that might cause these to materially change> 4. Do you know when your investments distribute gains? Year end? Mid-year? 5. Do you have out of favor investments and been reluctant to sell because of the possible tax hit? Make sure your advisor analyzes all of your investment accounts to see the full picture and a complete analysis.

Tax planning is not just a once-a-year event. The chart above is a good illustration of how we are constantly evaluating current circumstances to help guide our clients with potential tax saving strategies as part of the wealth planning process. We want to ensure you that along with your CPA, we are evaluating the landscape for tax changes and strategies that may help save future dollars and keep money in your pocket.

So, what can we learn from all this? As you prepare to file your taxes before April 15, it is a perfect time to review your financial and wealth planning needs. This includes reviewing the investment portfolio, assessing ongoing tax-planning opportunities, reviewing retirement goals and managing your wealth transfer and legacy plans. The information above represents just some of the items that may apply to you and your family. We are happy to meet to discuss any of the above to ensure that you remain on track with your financial profile.

In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan.

Panic is not an investing strategy. Neither are “get in” or “get out” — those sentiments are just gambling on moments. Investing is a disciplined process, done over time. At the end of the day, investors will be well served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and to remember that over the long term, markets tend to rise. Market corrections are normal, as nothing goes up in a straight line.

The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

Sources: IRS, Russell Investments, U.S. News

Promo for an article titled What Does Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Mean for Investors?

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean for investors?

Though the immediate economic impact of Russia invading Ukraine has been in the energy markets, sanctions placed on Russian banking and payment systems are causing increased volatility in global currency markets as well. As the war enters its third week, the Russian stock market was down more than 63% year-to-date before being closed this week, and the ruble hit a record low against the dollar. Global markets are suggesting that Russian debt is at a very high level of default.

You may recall that Russia previously defaulted on its debt in 1998, when it was reeling from the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 and oil prices trading in the low $20s per barrel. This sent shockwaves through the global markets, culminating with the collapse and liquidation of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Market. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stepped in with a rescue package at a time when no government or company was sanctioning the Russian economy. It is difficult to imagine the IMF or other governments (outside of China) stepping in to rescue Russia if it were to default today.

What does the war mean for U.S. investors?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine adds to the uncertainty that has weighed on stocks since the start of the year. History tells us stocks tend to be more volatile during periods of uncertainty, and while volatility is elevated at the moment, the VIX index remains well below levels seen during the height of the global pandemic or global financial crisis.

____________________

VIX Index, a measure of volatility in the equity market

Chart showing volatility index from 1992 to modern day — *Index VIX; Source: Factset*

Russia is the world’s second-largest producer of natural gas and third-largest producer of oil, accounting for 11% of global oil supply in 2021. The risk of a significant cut to the global oil supply has sent oil prices sharply higher. Russia and Ukraine also account for more than a quarter of the world’s wheat exports; we recently have seen higher food and commodity prices as well.

Higher energy and food prices complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to handle inflation and rising rates. Higher oil and commodity prices may dampen consumer spending on discretionary items, and therefore, may help to cool economic activity — which takes pressure off the central bank to raise rates quickly.

As the chart below shows, stocks have largely shrugged off past geopolitical conflicts. As we often say, the most important factors in stock performance are market fundamentals and the fundamentals of underlying companies.

Chart showing geopolitical events and stock market reactions

“Over the last few years, markets have been conditioned not to overact to political and geopolitical shocks,” said Mohamed Aly El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz. For a longer-term perspective, notice the chart below that outlines global conflict and crises going back to World War II. If the red dots and lines outlining the geopolitical events were not visible, one analyzing the chart would not make a rational conclusion to sell based on a war. The chart shows a clear trend of positive returns over the long term.

Chart showing market levels during major geopolitical events

We know that in the context of geopolitical risks, equity markets always have been resilient. The ups and downs triggered by the Russian invasion suggest that we will continue to have increased volatility, but no one knows for sure how long that volatility may last. We expect that the markets will work this out and reach new heights over time. We also expect that along the way, markets will experience sharp declines — much like we are seeing today.

So, what can we learn from all this? Regardless of how the Russia-Ukraine war unfolds, the stock market is driven primarily by U.S. business activity. Although inflation in prices for oil, food and commodities is cause for concern, it remains important to make investment decisions based on logic, not emotions.

Promo for article titled News: CD Wealth Management Joins Bluespring Wealth Partners

In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan.

The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

Sources: FactSet, Forbes, LPL Financial, Kestra Financial, Ritholtz, Schwab

Promo for article titled An Introduction to NFTs: What You Should Know About Digital Art

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

The case for staying invested, even when the market declines

In recent weeks, the markets have reacted to a myriad of economic data and geopolitical events. On the economic front, recent reports show weaker consumer spending with inflation levels last seen in 1982. On the other hand, the reports show strong job numbers with low unemployment rates. The Fed’s firm stance on controlling inflation has contributed to market volatility, and the picture is further clouded by uncertainty about the Fed’s plans to raise rates this year.

Over the last week, the markets also have reacted strongly to the buildup of forces along the Ukraine border. As seen in the chart below, previous incidents involving Russia have had little impact on the global financial markets. We do not believe that diversified investors need to take stock market actions related to the potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

Historical geopolitical events involving Russia

Chart showing historical events in Russia and the effect on the markets, dating to 2008 — *Turkey is a member of NATO, now and at the time of the event.
Source: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. and FactSet. Data retrieved 1/28/2022. All price performance is in USD. **Past performance is no guarantee of future results.**

Loss Aversion Theory demonstrates that the pain people feel when losing money is greater than the joy they feel from making money. The market’s decline to start the year tests this theory for many investors. The instinct to flee stocks when the market starts to fall can have a major negative impact on the long-term health of the portfolio. Stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing, but over long periods of time, stocks have tended to move higher. The S&P 500 has typically dropped at least 10% about once per year — and 20% or more about every six years — according to data from 1952 to 2021. Each historical downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.

Chart detailing declines in the S&P 500's composite index since March 2020

Investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of market appreciation that follow the downturns. From 1929 through 2020, every decline of 15% or more in the S&P 500 has been followed by a strong recovery. The chart below shows how just missing a few of the market’s best days can hurt long-term investment return. The takeaway for investors is to remain invested during volatile times so that when the market starts to recover, one does not miss out on the returns to recover the unrealized losses.

Missing just a few of the market’s best days can hurt investment returns

Chart showing the value of a $1,000 investment based on missing periods of time when the market performed best — *Sources: RIMES, Standard & Poor’s. As of 12/31/21. Values in USD.*

As we write each week, we believe in sticking with the plan to avoid making decisions based on emotions — particularly when the market goes lower. We regularly practice dollar-cost averaging, investing an amount of money into the portfolio at regular intervals, regardless of whether the market moves up or down. Most people do this every two weeks with their 401(k) plans without even realizing that they are dollar-cost averaging. People who follow this strategy purchase additional shares at lower prices and fewer shares at higher prices. Over time, though, investors pay less per share.

As seen in the chart below, the dark blue line represents stock price, and the lighter blue is number of shares owned. As the price drops in months 7 through 10, the number of shares purchased each month increases. This does not necessarily ensure a profit or protect against losses, but it keeps investors in the market and helps to take advantage of market downturns.

When stock prices fall, you can get more shares for the same amount of money and lower your average cost per share

Source: Capital Group. Over the 12-month period, the total amount invested was $6,000, and the total number of shares purchased was 439.94. The average price at which the shares traded was $15, and the average cost of the shares was $13.64 ($6,000/439.94). Hypothetical results are for illustrative purposes only and in no way represent the actual results of a specific investment. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.

Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry a larger influence on our perceptions and decisions. It is always important to maintain a long-term perspective, as markets tend to reward those who invest over longer periods of time. Those who can ignore the short-term worries and the noise — and focus instead on long-term goals — are better positioned to be rewarded for the future.

So, what can we learn from all this? Investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and remember that over the long-term, markets tend to rise. Market corrections are normal; nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It’s important to remember that panic is not an investing strategy. Neither are “get in” or “get out” — those sentiments are just gambling on moments. Investing is a disciplined process, done over time.

From a portfolio perspective, we continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. As we say each week, it is important to stay the course and focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

Sources: American Funds, JP Morgan, Schwab

Promo for an article titled Understanding the Importance of Market Liquidity

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. Kestra IS and Kestra AS are not affiliated with CD Wealth Management. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

Understanding the importance of market liquidity

Over the last few years, liquidity has been a major driver in the stock market. In a liquid market — one that is not dominated by selling — the bid price and ask price are close to each other. As a market becomes more illiquid, such as during a sell-off like we saw last month, the spread between the bid and ask prices grows — meaning prices become less stable and transparent.

As we have previously written, the Federal Reserve has been buying bonds in an effort to inject liquidity into the market. When the Fed buys bonds, it increases its balance sheet — a list of its assets (such as government securities and loans) and liabilities (including currency in circulation). As seen in the chart below, the balance sheet has reached an all-time high.

The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to more than $8 trillion

Chart showing the growth of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet — Source: Bloomberg. Reserve Balance Wednesday Close for Treasury Bills, Treasury Notes, Treasury Bonds, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), and Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Weekly data as of 1/26/2022.

The Fed’s goals include setting monetary policy that stabilizes the nation’s financial system, especially during times of high volatility, and allowing the economy to grow without generating inflation. After a challenging January in which volatility surged, stocks and bonds sold off and major indexes exceeded 10% drawdowns, the Fed now is reducing its bond purchases and soon will begin raising rates.

The Fed’s balance-sheet reduction should not be a near-term issue, as interest rates remain low and servicing the debt remains manageable. However, the speed at which the Fed raises rates will have an impact on the equity markets. (The Fed has not yet outlined a clear plan for how many times it plans to raise rates and how it plans to reduce its balance sheet over time.)

As the Fed injects less money into the economy to slow down inflation, liquidity is being reduced, which can lead to outsized market moves. In the last few weeks, the huge swings in U.S. stocks like Meta (Facebook), PayPal, Netflix and Snap have illustrated what can happen when liquidity dries up. As seen in the chart below, liquidity in U.S. stocks has fallen to levels last seen during the COVID-19 sell-off two years ago.

Lower levels of liquidity exacerbate market swings and make it harder for investors to execute buy and sell orders at a desired price. One measure of equity market liquidity is the market depth of S&P 500 E-mini futures, which investors use to gain exposure to the U.S. stock market. The E-mini S&P 500 is a futures contract that represents one-fifth of the value of a standard S&P 500 contract. The value of the full-sized S&P 500 contract is too large for most small traders, so the E-mini is used instead for speculation and hedging.

Typically, the volume traded in E-mini contracts is many times larger than the full contract — in other words, it is very liquid. Normal volume is roughly $50 million of value at any given time in the E-mini contracts, while today that number stands closer to $5 million, or 1/10th the size of normal liquidity.

Chart illustrating that liquidity has dried up in the U.S. stock market

So, what can we learn from all this? As we continue to gain clarity from the Federal Reserve on inflation and interest rates, volatility will reduce — and liquidity will return to the markets. Many market dynamics and economic indicators suggest that a strong economy remains possible. Strength in corporate earnings, productivity and innovation continue to drive profit margins higher for most companies in the S&P 500. Market corrections are normal, as nothing goes up in a straight line.

Investing is a disciplined process, done over time. It’s important to remember that panic is not an investing strategy. Neither are “get in” or “get out” — those sentiments are just gambling on moments in time.

From a portfolio perspective, we continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value. As we say each week, it is important to stay the course and focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Investopedia, Goldman Sachs

Promo for an article titled After January's Market Volatility, What Can Investors Expect?

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. Kestra IS and Kestra AS are not affiliated with CD Wealth Management. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

After January’s market volatility, what can investors expect?

Persistent worries about inflation and tightening monetary policy led to January’s market sell-off and NASDAQ’s worst month since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. The average stock in the NASDAQ composite has experienced a decline of about 47% from its peak, according to a JP Morgan Report. Renewed geopolitical tensions, ranging from the Russia-Ukraine crisis to U.S.-China relations, also are fueling market volatility. And though market volatility is likely to persist, this does not mean that the stock markets will continue to experience similar downward pressure for the remainder of the year.

Volatility in growth companies is to be expected in any market environment. Over the past 15 years, some well-known, fast-growing companies experienced multiple corrections that were similar to the ones we encountered in January. Those who remained invested and weathered the market turbulence have realized attractive returns over the long term.

Chart showing drawdowns and returns for Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Netflix — *Sources: Capital Group, Morningstar Direct. As of Dec. 31, 2021. Corrections defined by share price decline of 10% or greater. Based on daily returns from 2007 to 2021.*

Many positives remain for the current economy. GDP, which was reported last week for 2021, grew at an annualized rate of 5.7% — the fastest growth since 1984. Most economists expect the GDP to grow at a much lower rate for 2022 as fiscal stimulus wanes and monetary policy tightens. The first-quarter GDP is expected to be .1% and around 2% to 3% for the year. While this prediction would mean slower growth this year — thanks to economic drag from COVID and supply-chain tightness — it does not mean a recession is likely. By definition, a recession happens when there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Based on economists’ predictions that GDP will be positive and growing, we do not see the economy headed into a recession.

As we wrote last week, the market has tended to rise in periods following initial increases in interest rates. The Fed is intent on normalizing interest rates. The current levels of inflation are driven mainly by supply constraints following a huge shift in demand during the pandemic, not by an overheated economy.

We continue to believe that the path toward monetary policy normalization will be bumpy as the Fed raises rates and tapers bond purchases, and we predict that volatility will continue to exist in the markets. Questions remain as to how many interest rate hikes the Fed will implement in 2022. As the chart below shows, even the change from one week differs on expectations for rate hikes in 2022.

Chart showing Fed fund futures implied number of rate hikes as of January 24 and January 31, 2022.

The uncertainty around Fed policy in a highly fluid environment has been the main driver of recent market volatility. Until there is greater clarity from the Fed on inflation, we expect these choppy market conditions to continue.

So, what can we learn from all this? In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan and not to panic. It’s important to remember that panic is not an investing strategy. Neither are “get in” or “get out” — those sentiments are just gambling on moments in time. Investing is a disciplined process, done over time.

From a portfolio perspective, we continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value. As we say each week, it is important to stay the course and focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

Sources: American Funds, JP Morgan, Schwab

Promo for an article titled When Will the Fed Raise Rates? Here's What We Know Today

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. Kestra IS and Kestra AS are not affiliated with CD Wealth Management. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

When will the Fed raise rates? Here’s what we know today

In financial circles, “inflation hawks” is a term used to describe policymakers who are willing to let interest rates rise to keep inflation under control. As the Federal Reserve transitions from a dovish stance to a hawkish one in 2022, the market has continued its selloff. Investors appear to be pricing in an even more hawkish stance as they brace for possible action on interest rates from the Fed and keep a watchful eye on tensions between Russia and Ukraine. So far, the Fed has not taken action regarding rate hikes, but it has increased the pace of balance sheet tapering, hoping to slow economic growth so that inflation does not overheat.

The Fed has signaled that it is ready to act on inflation as the data supports it. There is much speculation (but no real knowledge) about how much and how often the Fed may raise rates this year and next to stem inflation. The 10-Year Treasury bond — a benchmark for other debt assets such as corporate bonds, auto loans and home mortgage rates — has started to advance in anticipation of higher rates. Once the 10-Year Treasury starts moving higher, other assets tend to follow, creating a natural slowing of the economy.

Consider home prices as an example. When interest rates are as low as they have been over the last several years, home prices tend to rise as demand increases and inexpensive mortgage rates allow people to have access to monies at lower rates. As the 10-Year Treasury begins to rise, mortgage rates will rise as well, thus slowing down the rate of home appreciation as monthly payments rise and the demand for mortgages decreases.

So how do higher rates affect stock market valuations — and why is the NASDAQ selling off more than other major U.S. indexes? As we previously have written, the 10-Year Treasury acts as the risk-free rate, used to discount future cash flows and earnings for stocks. Fundamental stock market analysis estimates future earnings and cash flows of corporations. These future earnings must be discounted back to today’s dollars to estimate the realistic stock price and the value of a company. As the risk-free or discount rates rise, this reduces the value of future cash flows. This is why we are seeing the more growth-oriented stocks of the NASDAQ selling off more than traditional, brick-and-mortar stocks.

The S&P 500 crossed the 10% correction threshold this week, and while drawdowns in the market never feel good, the chart below shows us this is not the first time we have seen a month like this. (It won’t be the last month like this in our investing lifetime, either.)

Chart showing how the current market drawdown compares with previous ones

How does the market typically perform when the Fed raises rates?

As seen in the chart below, during the last 10 cycles of rising rates since 1969, the forward performance of the market has been positive 80% of the time, with an average 12-month return of almost 7% and a return of almost 20% two years later. We don’t know how many times the Fed will raise rates this year or next, nor do we know where inflation will be in 12 months. But the stock market is the most well-known leading indicator, and we believe a lot of the selling we are seeing now is in advance of the Fed beginning to raise rates.

Chart showing Fed rate hikes and forward performance since 1969

So, what can we learn from all this? So far, 2022 has shown a propensity for avoiding the dips, whereas 2020 and 2021 were about buying the dips. We are experiencing larger market selloffs as the volatility index (VIX) has almost doubled this year. We also have experienced the first market correction in the S&P 500 in more than 400 days. Investing is a disciplined process, done over time. It’s important to remember that panic is not an investing strategy. Neither are “get in” or “get out” — those sentiments are just gambling on moments in time.

From a portfolio perspective, we continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value. As we say each week, it is important to stay the course and focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

Sources: FactSet, Blackrock

Promo for article titled What You Need to Know About Web 3.0 and the Metaverse

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. Kestra IS and Kestra AS are not affiliated with CD Wealth Management. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

What you need to know about Web 3.0 and the metaverse

Last year, Facebook changed its company name to Meta, reflecting its ambition to grow beyond social media and describing its vision for a virtual world, known in sci-fi circles as the metaverse. You may have heard people talking about the metaverse — or the new buzzword, Web 3.0 — and wondered what it all means.

What is the metaverse — and what is Web 3.0?

In the most simplistic terms, the metaverse is the next evolution of the internet in which users are immersed and virtually present thanks to technologies like virtual reality and augmented reality. And as Wired magazine describes, the metaverse also can translate to a digital economy in which users can create, buy and sell goods.

During its early days in the 1990s, the internet (Web 1.0) was designed as a way to democratize access to information. Because there was no great way to navigate the vast amounts of data, it became overwhelming and unorganized. Then came Web 2.0 in the 2000s. Google, Amazon, Facebook and Twitter emerged to bring order to the Internet, making it easier to interact, connect and transact online. Social media applications took off, and the larger companies became even more powerful.

Web 3.0 is anticipated to be a decentralized version of the internet in which people — not companies — have control over data. Web 3.0 is being built on blockchain technology. As we have written before, blockchain is an electronic ledger that provides a digital record without a central authority. Blockchain is the technology behind many cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Using blockchain provides the possibility of peer-to-peer services with no single authority, which gives users control over the data.

Where did this idea come from?

Sci-fi author Neal Stephenson first described the metaverse in his 1992 novel Snow Crush. In this work of fiction, he envisions people using lifelike avatars to meet in an online world, often in realistic-looking buildings and other virtual-reality environments. Since then, various innovations have paved a path toward an actual metaverse, an online virtual world that incorporates augmented reality, virtual reality, 3D holographic avatars, video and other means of communication.

A person in a futuristic setting wearing a virtual reality helmet

In the future, experts believe, the metaverse will feature a decentralized, open architecture platform to be accessed by virtual reality headsets and powered by blockchain. One will be able to work, play video games, buy digital items, socialize with friends, consume media and even attend events in the metaverse. Mark Zuckerberg describes it as “a virtual environment where you can be present with other people in digital spaces.” Early versions exist today; in fact, rap artist Travis Scott held a concert in the metaverse after the pandemic began.

Online game platforms like Fortnite (owned by Epic Games), Minecraft (owned by Microsoft) and Roblox provide insight into this new virtual universe. Facebook, Microsoft, Roblox and Nvidia are staking early claims to this new digital world. This week, Microsoft announced the massive acquisition of Activision Blizzard, an attempt to build out Web 3.0. While no one company owns the metaverse — just like no one owns the internet — there will be many important players in the space, putting billions of dollars to work over the next several years.

A promo featuring Fortnite Metaverse vs Roblox, Meta and Microsoft

So, what can we learn from all this? The metaverse is still in its very early days, but the infrastructure is being built. Social attitudes and norms are changing and adapting to the new era of the internet.

It will take many years for the metaverse to be fully formed and for the experiences to become part of the daily world. However, it appears the train has left the station, with social media and video game companies leveraging their large user bases to build the foundation of the metaverse.

From a portfolio perspective, we continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value. As we say each week, it is important to stay the course and focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and in having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Fortune, Seeking Alpha, USA Today, Wired

Promo for an article titled If You're Leaving Your Job, Don't Forget About Your 401(k)

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. Kestra IS and Kestra AS are not affiliated with CD Wealth Management. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

What kind of growth can investors expect in 2022?

In all, 2021 was a solid year for the financial markets. The economy’s ability to adapt to the pandemic, the vaccine rollout, additional financial stimulus and easy monetary policy all supported strong performance. Growth in large-cap U.S. equities was primarily driven by gains among the S&P 500’s largest tech holdings. Severe supply-chain bottlenecks and a surge in energy prices supported a strong commodity performance. Small-cap U.S. equities trailed their large-cap counterparts but still produced returns greater than their 20-year average of 11%.

Outside the U.S., equities in developed markets had another strong year. Emerging markets, on the other hand, were hurt after a correction in the Chinese stock market and continued lockdown measures. Finally, U.S. fixed income decreased as long-term interest rates ended the year higher than where they started.

Chart showing 2021 returns by asset class

The Chinese stock market had a correction in 2021, and questions remain about the Chinese economy. The property market downturn, triggered by the collapse of Evergrande, is a large drag on China’s economic growth. In the past, downside growth risks in China have been quickly countered by monetary and fiscal stimulus. This time may be different as signals point toward Chinese leaders being worried about excessive leverage in the property sector. With China’s 2022 growth projections being around 5%, this may take some pressure off global inflation.

In 2022, the central narrative will be how markets react to the Federal Reserve and other major central banks transitioning away from an extraordinary 18-month period of stimulus. Return and income-seekers will need to navigate a backdrop of favorable but moderating growth, high valuations, low and rising yields, and ongoing COVID-related question marks — in particular, an uncertain path for inflation.

The U.S. economy is poised for a year of moderating but above-trend economic growth. Robust household income and accumulated savings leave the consumer in a strong position heading into the year. Businesses have record levels of cash on hand, which may lead to record levels of investment. Unemployment is at 4.2%, and wages are up. Excess cash has been moving into the equity markets, and in 2021, inflows into equities were more than the past 19 years combined.

Inflation remains the primary focus for most investors. Moderating demand, rebalancing demand from goods to services and healing the supply side should allow inflation to rates to reduce in the second half of the year. Wage inflation and strong labor demand are the key risks to this scenario. At the same time, we are keeping a close watch on fiscal policy. For now, President Biden’s Build Back Better plan is on ice. If this plan were to be resurrected, we would watch closely and keep you informed every step of the way.

So, what can we learn from all this? We are hopeful that 2022 will be a turning point in the global pandemic and that policy makers will wean economies and markets off fiscal and monetary stimulus. Vaccine manufacturing continues to ramp up, and new therapeutics to fight COVID continue to be available in the U.S. and abroad. Inflationary pressures should ease but still settle at an elevated level than the recent past. We believe that diversification and the discipline to stay invested over the long-term are more important than ever. We are optimistic for a successful 2022!

The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value. As we say each week, it is important to stay the course. and focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

Sources: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Blackrock, Bloomberg, JP Morgan, Russell Investments

Promo for article on the formula for wealth

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. Kestra IS and Kestra AS are not affiliated with CD Wealth Management. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

Investment outlook: What will move the markets in 2022?

We are excited for 2022 and are looking forward to a great year ahead. It’s hard to believe we are nearly two years into the pandemic. It has been a balancing act on a global scale as governments and central banks gauged how much fiscal and monetary stimulus was needed to boost economies without creating runaway inflation.

We see many positives for the financial markets heading into 2022:

1. Global growth continues to be positive.
2. Monetary and fiscal policy are still supportive of growth, even in the face of tapering and possible interest rate hikes in 2022.
3. Congress recently passed legislation to raise the debt ceiling for all of 2022.
4. There is potential for peak inflation and lower inflation for the second half of 2022.
5. The easing of supply chain issues should help both emerging and developed international markets.
6. Consumer spending is strong, and balance sheet savings rates are higher.

The S&P 500 has traded above the 200-day moving average for all of 2021. The chart below suggests that when the S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average, forward returns are often favorable.

Chart showing the longest streaks for S&P 5-00 above the 200-day moving average

Clearly, inflation and its effect on the stock market are on the top of everyone’s mind. Remember that some inflation can be healthy for companies because it allows them to raise prices and increase profitability. Also, as seen in the chart below, stocks and bonds have generally provided solid returns, even during times of higher inflation. It is during the extremes that the markets often tend to struggle, but as inflation moderates, stocks and bonds can have strong years.

Chart showing average annual returns at different inflation rates from 1970 to 2021

Political uncertainty often has a noticeable short-term effect on the markets. An analysis of more than 90 years of equity returns reveals that stocks tend to have lower average returns and higher volatility for the first several months of midterm election years. The trend often reverses, and markets have tended to return to their normal trajectory. Remember, the numbers below are just averages; it is important not to try to time the market. Elections generally create a lot of noise, so it is important to look past the short-term highs and lows and focus on the long-term picture instead.

S&P 500 Index average returns since 1931

The markets and the global economy are not without risks. History shows us that the biggest risks in a typical year are hiding in plain sight, not suddenly appearing out of nowhere. Risk appears when there is a high degree of confidence among market participants expecting a specific outcome that doesn’t pan out. If we look to identify the unexpected, we see the following as potential risks to the global markets in 2022:

1. Supply chain shortages turn into gluts: Whether it’s semiconductors, used cars or a variety of products, any potential supply glut in 2022 may lead to a fall in inflation. Excess inventory would promote price cuts and pose risks to industries that have thrived on pricing boosts from shortages.
2. Rate hikes slower than expected: Surging inflation has led the Fed to anticipate three rate hikes in 2022. If inflation eases, the expectations for the number of rate hikes may change as well.
3. China: The World Bank cut its forecasts for China’s economy in 2022 after the nation’s continued attempts to restrict business, break up large technology companies and remove bitcoin mining.
4. COVID outbreaks and new strains: Investors may have grown confident in trading rotation in and out of stocks depending on the seasonality and COVID flare-ups. If the current and future waves have less impact on the overall economy, the stocks that have led us out of the economic doldrums may not have the same effect going forward.
5. Geopolitical surprises: The biggest worry could be a military conflict, whether that is China and Taiwan, an invasion of Ukraine by Russia or even a regional conflict in the Middle East.

History doesn’t always repeat itself, but similarities often exist. While inflation on a year-over-year basis is high, this is not the runaway inflation of the 1970s. Today’s inflation is more akin to the 1920s and 1950s, when we witnessed booms in productivity and innovation and the rebuilding of an economy boosted by a new generation of household spending, along with new infrastructure spending. The markets may experience elevated volatility in the coming year as the above risks test the markets. We will continue to keep you informed and invested through the ups and downs of 2022.

Promo for an article titled 2021 in the Rear-view Mirror: COVID, meme stocks and more

So, what can we learn from all this? We are hopeful that 2022 will be a turning point in the global pandemic and that policymakers will wean economies and markets off fiscal and monetary stimulus. Vaccine manufacturing continues to ramp up, and new therapeutics to fight COVID continue to be available in the U.S. and abroad. Inflationary pressures should ease but still settle at a level higher than the recent past. We believe that diversification and the discipline to stay invested over the long term are more important than ever. We are optimistic for a successful 2022!

From a portfolio perspective, we continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value. As we say each week, it is important to stay the course, focusing on the long-term goal and not on one specific data point or indicator.

Sources: Capital Group, Charles Schwab, BNY Mellon

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. Kestra IS and Kestra AS are not affiliated with CD Wealth Management. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures