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Fourth-Quarter Outlook: Midterms, More Volatility and the Fed

Time slows down for no one. It is hard to believe we are already in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The third quarter of the year saw financial assets continue their decline, as all asset classes — other than cash — delivered negative returns. The Fed’s third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points (.75%) put further pressure on stocks and bonds. The summer rally we saw in July and early August was erased during the second half of the quarter as inflation continued to rear its ugly head.

The strong correlation of returns between stocks and bonds remained, as bonds were down almost 5% for the quarter. Credit quality in bonds has remained stable this year. However, slower growth, persistent inflation and higher rates could increase credit risk in the coming months. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both had their worst months since 2008, and the Dow had its worst month since 2002.

International stocks remain challenged by higher energy costs and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Developed markets were down over 9%, and emerging markets were the worst performing in the third quarter, down over 11%. The United Kingdom took strong action last week to step in and purchase bonds to help their markets with additional liquidity.

Chart showing returns for the third quarter of 2022 by asset class

As we head into the fourth quarter, the main drivers of the market continue to be inflation, China’s path to reopening from the pandemic and war in Ukraine. At the end of the third quarter, we saw a big bounce in short-term interest rates, with the 2-year Treasury trading close to 4.3%. As rates rise, bond prices fall. We are currently seeing high-quality fixed income valuations sitting near 10-year lows.

At the same time, S&P 500 forward Price to Earnings (PE) multiples are almost 10% below their long-term averages. These attractive valuations in stocks and bonds historically have led to significant long-term investment opportunities. The chart below shows how the market has responded following a bad month of September — and as we previously wrote, this September was one for the record books. The only instance of a continued slide occurred during the Great Financial Crisis, and we do not believe that this market is similar.

Chart showing October market performance after poor September results

What do we expect for the fourth quarter?

As earnings season starts in a few weeks, most companies are in the process of reducing their earnings forecast based on continued inflationary pressures and higher borrowing costs from rising rates. Only 7% of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving average. A month ago, that number was more than 90%. Leading economic indicators continue to show weakness in the global economy, and more economists think a recession may occur in 2023. As we have written many times, the stock market is a leading indicator. By the time the recession arrives, the stock market will be looking ahead and ramping up for the recovery phase.

Here’s what are we watching:

The Federal Reserve: The Fed has forecasted that the Fed Funds rate may move closer to 4.5% by the end of the year. Short-term rates have risen along with the higher Fed Funds Rate. If the Fed indicates it may ease interest rate hikes, we could see a market rally.

International banks: Over the weekend, rumors of potential liquidity issues at Credit Suisse spread through the markets. Questions about risk management and the firm’s ability to compete against larger Wall Street banks sent the stock plunging. Investors fear another “Lehman Brothers moment,” but since the Great Financial Crisis, we have seen a complete overhaul of the banking system to minimize another Lehman scenario.

Market volatility: Market volatility is always unsettling, but historically it is not unusual. We view volatility as an opportunity to purchase more of what you own when we have larger movements in the market.

Midterm elections: As we recently wrote, the S&P 500 has historically outperformed the market in the 12-month period after the election, with an average return of 16.3%. Since 1962, the S&P 500 has not experienced a negative return either six or 12 months following the election. The stock market has historically preferred when one party is in the White House and the other party controls Congress, even if no major legislation is passed.

Bear markets do not last forever. We are in a bear market for the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Going back to 1929, the average bear market lasts 20 months and has an average loss of 41%, as seen in the chart below on the right. However, the average bull market lasts 51 months and has an average return of 161%. The chart on the left shows how long it may take to get back to the all-time market highs seen in January, depending on the average annual return achieved. Staying invested during these times allows you to participate on the upside when the market recovers – which, historically, it always has.

Equity scenarios: Bull, bear and in between

Source: FactSet, NBER, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Left) The current peak of 4797 was observed on January 3, 2022. (Right) *A bear market is defined as a 20% or more decline from the previous market high. The related market return is the peak to trough return over the cycle. Bear and bull returns are price returns. **The bear market beginning in January 2022 is currently ongoing. The “bear return” for this period is from the January 2022 market peak through the current rough. Averages for the bear market return and duration do not include figures from the current cycle. Guide to the Markets — U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2022.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading. We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy — and in the stock market.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: JP Morgan, Carson Investment Research, CNBC, Schwab

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This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Here’s How the Fed Hopes to Get Inflation Pressures Under Control

Last week, the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate by another 75 basis points (.75%) for the third consecutive meeting. The current range is 3.00% to 3.25%. The Fed expects the Federal Funds Rate to reach 4.50%, implying another 125 basis points (1.25%) of tightening through interest rate hikes. Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the goal of taming inflation is likely to induce a recession: “Reducing inflation will likely require a sustained period of below-trend economic growth. No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or, if so, how significant the recession will be.”

At the same time, the Bank of England, Sweden’s central bank, Bank of Canada and European Central Bank have all raised rates by a minimum of 50 basis points (.50%) in the last few weeks. The global outlook is driven by the impact of central bank actions, as well as war in the Ukraine and lockdowns in China.

Powell’s comments pushed stocks sharply lower and sent the U.S. dollar to a 20-year high. (See our previous article: What Does a Stronger U.S. Dollar Mean for You?) Last Friday, stocks closed at their lowest levels since the pandemic in 2020. Stocks have struggled since an unexpectedly hot inflation report in August shocked investors who were looking for price relief. On top of the recent inflation report and the Fed raising rates again, September historically has been the worst month in the stock market, dating back to 1897. Since 1944, only two months have averaged negative returns, with September averaging down .56%, as shown in the chart below.

Theories abound as to why this is the case. It is generally believed that investors come back from summer vacation and want to sell holdings to lock in gains for the year, while others speculate that September marks the beginning of the period when mutual fund companies start to pay distributions, which triggers tax-loss selling. October has seen the largest decline in terms of percentage — think of the crash of 1987 — but historically has been a strong month on average, returning almost 1%.

Chart showing that since 1944, only two months have averaged negative returns, with September averaging down .56%, — *Source: CFRA BMO*

Historically, when stocks have decreased in value, the bond market has been there to offer a “buffer” or help mitigate downside risk. As the chart shows below, in each instance that the S&P 500 has decreased, going back to 1977, bonds have increased. However, that has not been the case this year. Through the end of August, the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index are down double digits. Over the last many years, the stock market has been the primary source of returns as money market and bond yields have been close to 0%. These conditions are sometimes called “TINA,” an acronym for “There Is No Alternative.”

We are moving from TINA to TARA — There Are Reasonable Alternatives. With the Fed Funds rate at 3% and the 2-year Treasury bond over 4%, savers can earn more money on their cash alternatives, and investors do not have to reach for excess yield either in the stock market or through lower credit risk in the bond market.

Chart showing that in each instance that the S&P 500 has decreased, going back to 1977, bonds have increased — Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd., Standard & Poor’s. Returns above reflect annual total returns for all years except 2022, which reflects the year-to-date total return for both indexes. As of August 31, 2022.

The Fed has made it abundantly clear that it is willing to sacrifice growth for lower inflation. Growth expectations were revised lower for this year and next. The Fed’s new forecast for 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 1.2%, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The Fed needs both GDP to decline and the unemployment rate to increase for inflation to return to its 2% target level. This is because if the overall output of the economy is increasing, price increases may follow as demand outpaces supply. If GDP is declining, corporate profits are less, and demand is decreasing — which in turn may lead to price decreases.

Much of the most recent inflation increase has been attributed to wage growth. If unemployment increases, then the upward pressure on wages may subside, bringing inflationary pressures down. The economy will be better off the sooner the unemployment rate reaches the “natural rate of employment,” which is the rate that is neither too low and inflationary nor too high and recessionary. At the same time, for the economy to turn the corner, demand and growth need to subside to help with inflationary pressure.

Should inflation begin to recede through a soft labor market and slowing GDP, markets may rebound on prospects for an end to the aggressive rate hikes of 2022. We will need to see several months of evidence that services inflation and wage inflation are trending down. It is critical to remain forward-looking and invested. The fourth quarter is historically the strongest quarter of the year. Missing out on the market rebound, when the largest up days typically occur in a bear market, can be detrimental to the long-term plan that has been constructed for both the good and bad times.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: American Funds, CFRA BMO, Schwab

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Are Alternative Investments Too Good to Be True? Here’s What You Should Know

We have all been there before. You’re at a social event or party where you hear of a great opportunity to invest in some “private” deal or alternative investment. Maybe it is someone starting a business or an inventor with the next great idea — or even a new technology that may change the world. Some people may think these opportunities are like being invited to join an exclusive club for the rich and famous. Others may be searching for different ways to invest money outside of the liquid, public markets.

Historically, these types of investments have been more accessible for the super-wealthy and made popular by Harvard or Yale endowments. They tend not to be correlated with the stock market and may offer the potential for high returns, but typically with much higher risk.

Opportunities such as these are called private investments or alternative investments — financial assets or investments outside the stock and bond market. Examples include private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, real estate, commodities and cryptocurrencies. Here’s a brief description of several alternative investments:

• Private equity funds are invested directly into companies rather than into publicly traded stocks or bonds. Private equity firms raise money from investors and institutions and invest those monies directly into non-traded companies. There are several different types of private equity investments, such as distressed funds, leveraged buyouts and “fund of funds,” for example.

• Hedge funds are investment structures that pool monies together to invest in many different asset classes, and they are typically unconcerned with market direction. In its simplest form, a hedge fund is known as Long-Short. They go “long” by buying one stock in an industry, such as Ford, and “short” by selling another stock in the same industry, such as GM. Therefore, they are what is called market neutral. Hedge funds, like private equity, take on many different types, such as macro, equity, value and distressed.

• Venture capital investment typically involves financing startup companies and businesses. This is similar to how private equity works, but venture capital invests more in startup and early-stage businesses, whereas private equity investments are usually in more developed companies. There are different forms of venture capital investments such as seed, early-stage and expansion investments.

• Real estate investments such as investment properties, office buildings, apartments or vacation homes also are considered alternative investments, as they are purchased outside of the publicly traded markets. There are many other types of alternative investments within real estate such as hard money loans, private notes, real estate partnerships and opportunity zone investments.

• Commodities are investments that typically are available to investors of all experience levels and easier to purchase than other alternatives, such as gold, silver, oil or natural gas.

• Cryptocurrency has become a more recent phenomenon among alternative investments. Investors are putting money into Bitcoin or Ethereum or in the network blockchain, which is a digital ledger to track cryptocurrency movement and ownership.

Graphic illustrating different investment types

The pros and cons of alternative investments

PROS:

• They are not correlated to the stock market. This means that they add diversification to your portfolio while attempting to minimize risk. As we briefly outlined above, there are many different types of alternative investments, and the more investments one owns, the more one can potentially further reduce volatility in the portfolio.

• There is a potential for increased returns. As with any risky investment, there are no guarantees or guaranteed returns. Proponents of alternative investments maintain that higher returns can be achieved through these types of investments — but with the potential for higher returns comes higher risk.

CONS:

• They lack liquidity. Alternative investments tend to be private, i.e., not publicly traded, and therefore, they are less liquid. This means that they may be difficult to exit, and your monies could be tied up for many years, giving you no access to those funds. During the Great Recession, for example, many alternative investments stopped any redemptions of their funds, and clients who needed the money had no access to those monies.

• They have high investment minimums. For many people, higher minimums may make such investments unavailable. If an investment requires a high minimum to participate and that investment makes up a large percentage of your net worth, then it may not be prudent to have that much of your nest egg in one, potentially illiquid investment.

• They have higher fees. Most alternative investments carry higher investment fees than publicly traded funds do. At the same time, alternative investment fees are not always transparent, nor are they regulated by the SEC. Fees vary based on the type of investment, so it is important to understand the fee structure and how the fund manager gets paid.

• They lack regulation. Alternative investments are not regulated by the SEC and are not subject to reporting requirements. In addition, the underlying assets are often difficult to value, which can be deceptive for pricing and price transparency. Because of the lack of regulation and transparency, this can lead to risk of fraudulent investments. When you buy a stock, index fund, mutual fund or bond, you know that what you are buying is a real asset.

• They are complex. Alternative investments are often complex instruments and may require a high level of due diligence. If you are considering an alternative investment, it is imperative to do the research and understand all tax implications as well. For example, you may be a limited partner requiring a K-1, which in turn may delay filing your taxes. If you have several private investments, you may receive several K-1s, and this could lead to increased fees for filing taxes.

In recent years, alternative investments have grown in popularity. During down markets, alternative investments seem to become more popular as investors look to invest in something other than stocks.

Since alternative investments don’t have the same liquidity, transparency and valuation requirements of publicly traded stocks and bonds, investors may think that alternatives offer more security.

As seen in the pyramid below, alternative investments are higher on the risk scale, and therefore need to be well thought out and researched before investing capital. Please remember: If it sounds too good to be true, it normally is!

Pyramid chart ranking investment types according to risk

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Forbes, Investopedia

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Are We in a Recession? Here Are the Indicators You Should Be Watching

Reports last week indicated that gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by -0.9% for the second quarter of the year, the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth after the first-quarter decline of -1.6%. As a reminder, GDP is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders during a specific time period, adjusted for inflation.

Many investors and economists accept that a recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. However, negative GDP growth alone may be insufficient to describe a recession. Typically, we see rising defaults from companies and individuals as well as higher unemployment during a recession. As we have often written before, the National Bureau of Economic Research — a private research organization and the official arbiter of identifying recessions in the U.S. — describes a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity, spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” This definition leaves a lot of room for interpretation.

The following are other observable and measurable economic conditions that could be recession indicators:

• Decline in real GDP: As stated above, we have seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Expectations for GDP growth have continued to decrease. Annual GDP growth rates remain positive, but estimates continue to be lowered as the year progresses.
• Decline in real income: Real median household income takes time to calculate due to revisions in inflation data. Data from May shows that personal income increased by .5%, disposable personal income increased by .5% and personal consumption expenditures increased by .2%. However, real disposal personal income decreased by .1%. Why the difference? Inflation. Remember, real income — also known as real wage — is how much money one makes after adjusting for inflation.
• Decline in employment: The unemployment rate has remained steady at 3.6% for five months in a row and arguably represents near full employment for the economy. The low unemployment rate combined with the rise in wages may suggest that consumers are somewhat resilient to a potential recession and economic slowdown.
• Decline in industrial production: The industrial production index measures levels of production and capacity in the manufacturing, mining, electric and gas industries. Industrial production for June declined .2%, and prior months also were revised lower. The average monthly gain so far this year, however, remains positive at .4%. Industrial production increased at an annual rate of 6.1% for the second quarter. In a recession, we typically would see strong negative levels in the industrial production index.
• Decline in wholesale/retail sales: The consumer has remained strong and resilient for the first half of the year. The most recent wholesale report showed an increase of .5% and an increase in 20.9% from the May 2021 level. The most recent retail sales report exceeded expectations and showed an increase of 1% from the previous month and 8.4% above June 2021.

If a recession were to occur, remember that not all recessions are the same. Recessions generally fall into three categories:

• Asset bubble recession: Think of the recession from the technology bubble in 2000 or the great financial crisis of 2008, caused by the housing crisis. This typically leads to a larger financial crisis and results in steep market declines.
• Geopolitically driven recession: These are based on events such as the oil embargo of 1973-1974 or the COVID recession of 2020. They are typically the shortest in duration because they are event-driven.
• Cyclical slowdown recession: This type of recession is usually the least extreme and occurs when there is a shift in supply and demand. As the chart below shows, cyclical slowdown recessions going back to 1947 decline 19.2% on average and have a very strong return the following year.

Average Equity Drawdown and Recovery During Recessions since 1947

While the probability of a recession has increased, recessions in and of themselves are unavoidable. The economic indicators listed above will continue to provide us measurable data about the U.S. economy.

In spite of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the labor market remains strong, consumers seem resilient today, and output shows that supply-chain issues may be resolving themselves, especially with automobiles. Remember, recessions don’t last forever, and neither do bear markets.

Sources: AssetMark, Investopedia, Lord Abbett

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

The Portfolio Changes We’re Making as the Third Quarter Begins

This is a big week for the stock market: Earnings season is under way with many of the large-cap names reporting this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates another 75 basis points (.75%), and second-quarter GDP estimates are set to be released. Many economists predict that this will be the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth, signaling to many that we are in a recession.

However, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. The bureau does not define it as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Nonetheless, the stock market — which is a leading indicator — has been signaling for most of this year that the economy is slowing and a recession is possible.

The chart below is a stark reminder of how the market performed the first half of 2022. There are many reasons for the broad-based declines in all asset classes – the ongoing war in Ukraine, China’s zero-COVID policy, fears of economic slowdown and — lest we forget — inflation. Stock markets look forward, pricing in what investors think will happen, not what is happening right now. As such, current stock and bond prices already reflect the significant economic slowdown, if not a full recession. Bear markets do end, and when they do, a bull market will ensue.

Q2 2022 Index Returns

Chart showing index returns for the first half of 2022 by sector — ***Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and not subject to fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.*** Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective. Source: Kestra Investment Management with data from FactSet. Index proxies: Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, Bloomberg US AGG Bond Index, S&P US TIPS, ICE BofA US High Yield, S&P 500, MSCI World ex USA, MSCI EM, Dow Jones US Select REIT, Dow Jones Global X US & Bloomberg Commodity Index. Data as of July 15, 2022.

Knowing that bear markets will end and that they do not last as long as bull markets, we are in the process of reallocating and rebalancing our client portfolios to account for where we think the market is heading, not where it has been. We are making the following changes:

1. Earlier this year, we took additional profits in technology and healthcare and transitioned into broader value-based equities as well as mid-cap stocks for further diversification. From a long-term perspective, we believe strongly in both the technology and healthcare sectors and maintain broad exposure to both. Typically, in the late business cycle and entering a recession, we see growth moderating, credit tightening up, earnings coming under pressure and inventories growing as sales fall. With earnings season under way, we already have seen many Wall Street analysts and companies reduce earnings forecasts based on the strong dollar and the weakening economy. This must happen for the market to reach a bottom.

2. As we have written in the past, one of the positives of a down market is the ability to tax-loss harvest. Tax-loss harvesting does not always have to occur at year end. As a reminder, under current tax law, it’s possible to offset current capital gains with capital losses you’ve incurred during the year or carried over from a prior tax return. Capital gains are the profits you realize when you sell an investment for more than paid for it, while capital losses are the losses you realize when you sell an investment for less than you paid for it.

Short-term capital gains are taxed as ordinary income rates, whereas long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower capital gains rate. Being able to reduce the tax on both short- and long-term capital gains by harvesting losses can help offset the gains one incurs from taking profits. Harvesting the loss has no effect on the portfolio value, since one can use the proceeds from the sale to buy a similar investment. This allows the investor to maintain similar asset allocation and reduce federal income taxes. We want to take advantage now of several holdings trading at a loss and swap out those holdings to capture the loss while maintaining similar asset class exposure. We swapped out our small- and mid-cap funds, as well as the international fund, to harvest the current losses.

3. From a fixed-income perspective, we shortened the duration of the portfolio late last year as we anticipated higher interest rates in 2022. This has played out as we envisioned. While the fixed-income markets have not been spared the downdraft of the overall markets, we feel that most of the interest-rate change is accounted for in the bond market. Therefore, we are increasing the overall maturity of the portfolio to capture the higher yields that the market offers. At the same time, we are substituting a tax-free municipal bond position instead of a taxable bond fund, as municipal bonds offer great value in this market.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading.

We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. We strategically have new cash on the sidelines and buy in for clients on down days or dips in the market – as one does with a 401K.

In the short term, the sentiment and the outlook for the global economy remain negative. Economists are debating whether the United States is in a recession, and if so, what this means. Regardless, we continually speak with our clients about staying the course and not listening to the noise. Even if we entera recession, every recession ultimately ends and expansion ensues, with an accompanying bull market.

We will continue to drive home the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and in having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Source: Kestra Investment Management

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Midterm Elections are Right Around the Corner. What Does This Mean for the Market?

We are more than halfway through 2022, and the midterm elections are right around the corner. Midterm elections for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives have the potential to shift control of Congress, and they can also have a significant impact on taxes, laws, and foreign policy. If Republicans gain control of either the Senate or the House, we can expect to see a legislative gridlock. If Republicans gain control of both bodies of Congress, President Biden’s agenda will face strong headwinds. If Democrats were to retain control of both the House and Senate, we would likely see significant changes to spending and taxation.

What does this mean for the market? While we can’t predict future results, we can examine how previous midterm cycles have affected it. Let’s take a look at past performance during midterm cycles:

The S&P 500 has historically underperformed in the 12 months leading up to the midterm elections. Since 1962, in the 12 months prior to a midterm election, the average annual return of the S&P 500 is 0.3%, well below the historical average of 8.1% . ¹

The post-midterm election period is very different. The S&P 500 has historically outperformed the market in the 12-month period after the election, with an average return of 16.3%. This is also true for the one-month and three-month periods following midterm elections. Since 1962, there has not been one instance in which the S&P 500 has experienced a negative return either six months or 12 months following the midterm elections, as shown in the chart below.

chart of market performance before and after midterm election cycles — *Source: U.S. Bank*

Midterm election years are historically more volatile than the rest of the presidential cycle. As seen in the chart below, the second and third quarters have historically been the most volatile. The average S&P 500 intra-year decline in midterm election years is 19%. In the other three years of the presidential cycle, the average decline is just 13%.

The past three midterm election corrections (2002, 2010 and 2018) were definitely painful, and this year is proving no different. The timing of this year’s decline has been faster than usual, largely due to the issues that we continue to discuss: heightened inflation, geopolitical risk from the Ukraine war, and China’s restrictions due to the ongoing global pandemic. Additionally, the market has been trending very similar to 1982, a year in which we were also dealing with high inflation, Russia and a midterm election all at the same time.

graph showing spikes in market volatility in midterm election years

The chart below also shows how the market has pulled back in each of the midterm election years dating back to 1962 — and rebounded the one year following the correction low. In each instance, the S&P 500 had a strong bounce back. The second chart below shows that, the earlier the decline in the midterm election year, the stronger the recovery. For example, corrections that began before September had a negative return of 21% on average, while their subsequent rebound was 34% on average for the following one year. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, analyzing historical data does offer insight into how midterm elections might affect the market in the coming year and beyond.

charts showing market corrections and rebounds during midterm election years — *Source: Baird*

Depending on which party controls Congress, U.S. fiscal policy may change after the election. However, economic fundamentals — and not election results — play the greatest role in stock market performance. How the Fed steers the economy amid ongoing inflation concerns will continue to be the dominant market driver. The last time the S&P 500 produced negative returns during the 12 months after a midterm election was 1939 – a time of terrible uncertainty. The U.S. was still battling the Great Depression, and World War II was beginning in Europe.

So, what can we learn from all this? Past results do not guarantee future returns. However, if the past gives us any insight, the 12 months following the midterm elections may see a strong market rebound. That said, it is important to be mindful that every individual year is different, and it follows its own path. U.S. midterm elections, and politics as a whole, come with a lot of noise and uncertainty. Investors should not let that be a distraction from the fact that long-term equity returns are generated by solid investment fundamentals over time. It is imperative to look past the short-term volatility that elections may bring and maintain a long-term focus.

We will continue to harp on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip to take advantage of potential market upturns. We adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and remember that over time, markets tend to rise. During volatile markets, it is important to remember that the fear of losing money is stronger than the joy of making money. Investor emotions can have a big impact on retirement outcomes. Market corrections and bear markets are normal; nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Baird, Bloomberg, Forbes Advisor, U.S. Bank

1. Looking at 12-month periods when the price return is closing price on Oct 31.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

What Does a Stronger U.S. Dollar Mean for You?

For the first time in nearly two decades, the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar is roughly the same. The parity in the two currencies comes after the euro has plunged almost 20% in value over the last 14 months compared to the dollar. This year, the U.S. dollar has gained against most major currencies, as the Fed’s interest rate hikes have made the dollar a safe haven for investors worldwide who are seeking protection against surging global inflation.

The chart below shows the value of the euro compared to the dollar since 1999 and the wild swings that may occur in the currency markets.

When the Federal Reserve raises rates, as it has done several times this year, Treasury yields also tend to move higher. This attracts more money into the U.S. from international investors, who in turn buy dollar-denominated bonds in hopes of obtaining higher yields than they can obtain in their own countries. The higher the yield, the better the return. The Federal Reserve has raised rates more aggressively in 2022 than many other central banks around the globe.

Another potential dynamic causing the strength of the U.S. dollar is the idea that the U.S. is a safe haven for investments, compared to many other countries. Russia’s war with Ukraine has caused considerable geopolitical and economic uncertainty in Europe. At the same time, China’s zero-COVID policy has been another drag on the global economy. While there is uncertainty in the U.S. regarding a potential recession, the bond market (i.e., U.S. Treasuries) remains a safe investment compared to other countries, boosting the dollar’s attractiveness.

Why does the strength of the U.S. dollar matter? For those traveling overseas, a strong dollar is quite advantageous. A stronger American dollar goes much farther abroad and provides more buying power. Everything is cheaper for Americans traveling out of the country.

From an investment standpoint, the implications may be different. U.S.-based companies that have large international businesses are likely to suffer from a stronger dollar, primarily because converting overseas profits earned in weaker currencies into U.S. dollars can weigh on sales as well as earnings. Income from foreign sales will decrease in value on balance sheets because the foreign currency value has lost value. At the same time, domestically produced goods become more expensive abroad as the dollar increases compared to the currency where the goods are being shipped and then sold, driving down earnings.

On the other hand, goods produced abroad and imported to the United States will be cheaper with a stronger dollar. For example, a luxury car made in Italy will fall in price in dollars with the current parity between the dollar and the euro. If a car costs 70,000 euros and the exchange rate is 1.35, then it costs $94,500. However, if the exchange rate falls to 1.12, it would cost just $78,400.

Many companies will employ hedging techniques that may help improve gross profit margins and recover some of the lost revenue from the strong dollar. Some companies may sell their products overseas, and that may help them recover lost revenue from lower production costs. It also is important to note that currency swings of this magnitude tend to be short-lived.

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So, what can we learn from all this? While the U.S. dollar is at parity with the euro for the first time in over 20 years, it is critical to remember that the overarching approach to investing in stocks and bonds is based on long-term fundamentals. There will be quarter-to-quarter fluctuations, currency headwinds and currency tailwinds with every company that performs business in multiple countries. The primary focus is to look at the underlying fundamentals of the businesses and not become consumed with shorter-term currency moves that may affect business for a quarter or two. In the meantime, if you have a trip planned overseas, enjoy the benefits of a stronger dollar.

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and in having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: CNBC, Fortune, Investopedia, MSN

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

How Will the Economy Fare in the Second Half of 2022?

The U.S. economy and the stock market struggled mightily in the first half of 2022, and the S&P 500 had its worst start in 52 years. Inflation levels not seen since the 1980s — combined with aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, the effects of the Russia/Ukraine war and continued COVID lockdowns in China — sent the S&P 500 into a bear market. While the S&P 500 officially crossed into a bear market in mid-June, many of the underlying stock holdings had been in a bear market for a while, which is similar with the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ as well.

The market attempted several rallies during the first half of the year, but aggressive Fed policy and the removal of liquidity from the stock market kept pressure on stocks. As a result of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve and Congress added trillions of dollars to the economy in the last few years. The Fed began aggressive interest rate hikes and stopped bond purchases to remove excess liquidity from the economy and slow down inflation. Fears of a recession have intensified, and more companies are lowering earnings guidance for the second half of the year.

The bond market also had a difficult six months. Inflation spiked higher than anticipated, and rates rose more rapidly than the market expected. Bonds were down almost 10% for the first half of the year. As the economy continues to show signs of slowing down, with a potential recession on the horizon, the 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to under 3%. The bond market is showing signs that the Federal Reserve may have to slow down the rate of increase and potentially even reduce interest rates in 2023.

We do not know when the bear market will come to an end, but we do know that it will come to an end.

As we recently wrote, the average bear market since 1929 has lasted 9½ months. Going back to World War II, the average bear market has lasted 12 months, and it has taken 21 months on average to break even after a bear market. The chart below shows the peaks and troughs of every bear market since WWII. On average, it has taken much longer to reach 20% losses than it takes to reach a bottom. Seven out of the last 12 bear markets have bottomed in 46 days or less, once the 20% barrier was breached.

Chart showing peaks and troughs of previews bear markets — *Source: Ben Carlson, A Wealth of Common Sense.*

The chart below shows how the S&P 500 bounced back after first-half falls of 15% or more. The sample size is small, however, with only five instances going back to 1932. The S&P 500 did rise in each of these instances, with an average return of 23.66% and a median rise of 15.25%.

S&P 500 second-half performance after a first-half fall of 15% or more

Chart showing S&P 500 second-half performance after 15% fall in the first half — *Source: Dow Jones Market Data, MarketWatch.*

Looking at the Dow Jones Index provides a larger sample size. The Dow Jones has had 15 instances of first-half declines of greater than 10%. The Dow was down almost 15% for the first half of the year, its largest decline since 2008. More than two-thirds of the time, the Dow rallied in the second half of the year for an average return of 4.45% and a median return of almost 7%.

DJIA second-half performance after 10% fall in first half

Chart showing Dow Jones second-half performance after 10% fall in the first half — *Source: Dow Jones Market Data, MarketWatch.*

Please remember that past results do not guarantee future returns. Time will tell how the market responds to the current bear market. The charts above provide some great context for staying invested and hope that positive market returns may be around the corner.

So, what can we learn from all this? For the second half of 2022, we anticipate volatility to remain in both the equity and fixed-income markets. Our plan is to remain invested, take advantage of the markets being down by tax loss harvesting, and as always, to make the necessary tweaks to the portfolio as the economy continues to change. It appears more evident that the U.S. is headed towards a recession. GDP is likely to show two straight quarters of negative growth, a traditional sign that the economy is in a recession. Remember, though, that the stock market is a leading indicator and is already projecting that the economy is softening. Once the economy is in an official recession, the market is forward-looking and heading towards a recovery.

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Ben Carlson, Dow Jones Data, Schwab

Promo for article titled Here's Why Today's Housing Market is Different From 2008

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Here’s Why Today’s Housing Market Is Different from 2008

For homeowners, the increase in home prices over the last 16 months has been impressive. Nationally, home prices increased more than 20% year over year through April, with Florida leading the pack at more than 30%. It’s not a surprise for those of us who live in Texas to see that home prices have surged more than 20% during the last year.

Map showing price changes in the U.S. housing market — *Source: CoreLogic*

Rising interest rates have led to a drastic increase in the 30-year fixed mortgage loan rate. Last week, that rate hit 5.8%. By comparison, the rate at the start of 2022 was slightly higher than 3%. The low mortgage rates that we experienced over the last several years had been a real boon to the housing market and a big cause of the increase in home prices.

With the drastic increase in home prices, many are starting to wonder if this is setting up to be a repeat of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) that we witnessed in 2008. The underlying drivers for this housing market appear dramatically different. Here are several reasons that we feel the housing market today will not experience a repeat of 2008:

• The housing market today is in better health thanks to new lending regulations that resulted from the GFC. The chart below shows the credit quality of loans today compared with the time leading up to the GFC. Today, more than 70% of home loans go to those with credit scores over 720. The average borrower’s FICO score today is 751, a record high.

The higher score wins

Graphic showing credit scores of borrowers in today's housing market — *Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg as of 3/31/2022*

• Home prices soared during the last two years as demand rocketed during the pandemic. Homeowners today have record levels of home equity due to the increase in prices. The amount of equity that homeowners can access is over $11 trillion, a 34% increase compared to last year.

• The amount of leverage — how much debt the homeowner has against the home’s value — has fallen dramatically. Total mortgage debt is less than 43% of total home values, the lowest on record. Negative equity is basically non-existent. (In 2011, one in four borrowers were underwater.) Today, mortgage payments as a percentage of consumer’s disposable income are just 3.8%, about half of what it was before 2008.

Mortgage Debt Service Payments as % of Disposable Income

• There are 2.5 million adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), accounting for about 8% of all active mortgages and the lowest volume on record. In 2007, there were 13.1 million ARMS, representing 36% of all mortgages. More than 80% of today’s ARMs operate under a fixed rate for the first seven to 10 years.

• Mortgage delinquencies are at a record low, with about 3% of mortgages past due. There are fewer past-due mortgages than there were before the pandemic.

• Following the Great Financial Crisis, a decade of underbuilding of homes ensued. As the millennial population is reaching peak home-buying age, there are millions of first-time home buyers waiting for the opportunity to purchase their first home.

Higher mortgage rates are already having the intended effect of slowing down housing prices. Existing home sales fell for the fourth straight month in May, and “further sales declines should be expected in the upcoming months given housing affordability challenges from the sharp rise in mortgage rates this year,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Existing buyers are still competing for a low supply of houses as builders face issues with supply chain, labor shortages and a decade of underbuilding. Higher rates taking some of the momentum from the housing market is not necessarily a bad thing for the economy and may help the Federal Reserve soft-land the economy (instead of a feared crash landing).

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So, what can we learn from all this? We understand the concern that investors have comparing today’s housing market to that of the pre–GFC market crash. We take comfort in the fact that the amount of leverage and types of loans today are nowhere near what we witnessed during the GFC bubble. Lending has been in favor of those with much higher credit scores. Household balance sheets are in much better shape, and the percentage of one’s disposable income spent on mortgages is at an all-time low. We do not believe that the housing market will see a similar relapse to what we experienced in 2008. We will continue to closely monitor the housing market and its effect on the economy.

We will continue to harp on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: CoreLogic, Federal Reserve Board, Kestra Investment Management, Schwab

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

How Has the Market Performed After Its Worst Years?

Last week was another tough week for the stock market. Major U.S. market indexes have now traded down 10 out of the last 11 weeks. Stock market losses occur for various reasons: Sometimes they are driven by excessive market valuations, like the tech bubble of 2000, and sometimes they are driven by external market events, such as a war or a global pandemic.

If the year were to end today, 2022 would be the sixth worst year in stock market history, as the S&P 500 is currently down 22.3% year to date. During times like these it is important to maintain perspective and know that even the worst market years will come to an end. Here are some points to keep in mind:

•The S&P 500 had 25 negative years between 1928 to 2021, meaning that 27% of the time, the market experienced a down year, while 73% of the time the market had positive returns.

•Of the 25 negative years, 11 of those were double-digit losses as seen in the chart below.

a chart of the S&P 500's worst years and its returns after 1, 3, and 5 years

• The market has experienced two consecutive years of negative returns eight times since 1928. It has experienced three consecutive years of negative returns three times in this same period, however, this has only happened once since the Great Depression.

• The longer-term returns following the worst performing stock markets have been strong. The average three-year return is +35% while the average five-year return is +80%.

• The results for the year that follows a worst performing year are mixed, however, there has only been one three-year period with negative returns, which was during the Great Depression.

• Every five-year period following one of the worst years in the stock market saw positive returns.

• Since 1929, there have been 26 bear markets, 15 of which were tied to recessions. The average length of a bear market in the S&P 500 index has been 9 ½ months. For bear markets that have been tied to a recession, the average decline is 35%, while those without a recession have experienced an average loss of 25%.

• The chart below is a history of bull and bear markets since 1942. During that time, the average cumulative return of a bull market has been 155%, while the average bear market has a loss of 32%. It is important to note the length of time of a bull market compared to a bear market: The bull market has lasted, on average, 4.4 years, while the bear market has only lasted 11 months on average.

graph depicting the duration of bull and bear markets and their returns

Even after the worst years in the stock market, the markets have always bounced back. Those who remain disciplined in a down market, like we are in today, have the potential to enjoy better times ahead. Historically, the longer you stay invested, the greater the possibility you will have to reach your long-term goals.

So, what can we learn from all this? Today’s markets are certainly a challenging environment; however, when focused on long-term investing, there is no reason to panic. Since 1929, markets have experienced numerous challenges including multiple wars, asset bubbles, recessions, and a global pandemic. In each of these challenging times, companies and people have adapted and responded to get back on track. Investing will always be uncertain but sticking to the financial plan is critical to avoid short-sighted decisions. As Warren Buffet famously said, “The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.”

What really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people. — Warren Buffet

link to related content about the importance of staying invested

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Assetmark, Ben Carlson, Fact-Set, First Trust, PGIM