Portfolio Management Archives | Page 10 of 23

A Wild Week: As the Market Rallied, Cryptocurrencies Crashed

Last week, we saw the biggest one-day rally in the stock market in more than two years as Wall Street reacted to better-than-expected inflation data for the month of October. Loosening restrictions in China also contributed to market confidence that inflation may have peaked in the world’s largest economy. The market is hopeful that the Fed will react to the most recent data with smaller interest rate hikes in December. (While the inflation data that was reported in October is backward-looking, the stock market is looking ahead.) The Fed needs to see continued confirmation that inflation has cooled and will not decide on interest rates based on a single data point. Instead, it needs to see a trend of several months of data that shows inflation slowing down.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency investors have had a year to forget, capped off with the seismic disruption from FTX, the fourth-largest crypto exchange in the world. In a week’s time, the company went from operating as one of the biggest players in the industry to filing for bankruptcy. The unraveling of FTX is sending shockwaves through the industry. We have seen this story play out before with Enron, Madoff, Stanford Financial and more recently, Theranos. Many smart investors, analysts and auditors were duped by FTX, as it seems billions of dollars was stolen from traders and investors.

What was FTX?

FTX was a centralized cryptocurrency exchange that specialized in derivatives and leveraged products, options and leveraged tokens. It also provided a spot market (immediate exchange versus a futures market that would be delivered in the future) in more than 300 cryptocurrency trading pairs. This exchange allowed traders to speculate and make bets on various forms of cryptocurrency.

FTX promoted the ability for liquidity and transacting in coins and tokens. FTX allowed users to connect their “wallets,” place trades, exchange currencies, and buy and sell NFTs. U.S. residents were not permitted to trade on its platform due to regulations. FTX represented itself as being protected from hackers and as a safe place to store cryptocurrency.

What went wrong?

In recent months, as inflation has soared and interest rates have been lifted, the easy money cash from the days of the pandemic has dried up. That is bad news for digital assets, which are considered sponges for excess money. Less money in the money supply means more risk aversion in the market. When money is easy, investors are willing to take on more risk, such as speculating in cryptocurrency. As the year progressed, investors have continued to sell speculative assets, including crypto.

Sam Bankman-Fried was the founder of FTX and the quantitative trading firm Alameda Research. FTX created its own in-house cryptocurrency, FTT, and used customer funds from FTX in a way that flew under the radar of auditors, employees and investors. FTX used customers’ funds without their knowledge and drastically underestimated the amount of currency it needed to keep on hand if investors wanted to cash out on the trading platform.

Read: Are Cryptocurrencies as Good as Gold? What You Need to Know

Bankman-Fried’s trading firm, Alameda, was borrowing from FTX, using FTT tokens (their own cryptocurrency) to back the loans. In early November, rumors spread about liquidity concerns and allegations of misused funds, and investors began withdrawing funds rapidly. The price of FTT fell 75% in one day, making the collateral insufficient to cover the trade. Early last week, rival Binance had agreed to purchase FTX, but the deal fell through after Binance reviewed FTX’s balance sheet. FTX crashed from a $32 billion powerhouse into bankruptcy in less than one week. At the same time, there was a suspected hack of $477 million of cryptocurrency from the exchange hours after FTX declared bankruptcy.

The damage was not isolated to FTT cryptocurrency. Bitcoin, Ethereum and many other cryptocurrencies experienced sharp declines. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index fell 23% last week, and as shown below, it has fallen 79% from its all-time high a year ago.

Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 11/11/2022. Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index is designed to measure the performance of the largest cryptocurrencies traded in USD. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. **Past performance does not guarantee future results.**

What is the potential fallout?

Crypto investors are questioning if their bitcoin or Ethereum is safe. FTX and other exchanges are a type of “crypto-casino gambling websites,” said Cory Klippsten, CEO of the financial services firm Swan Bitcoin. “Any exchange is a security risk. With bitcoin, you have the option to take self-custody and take your coins off that exchange.” If investors keep their cryptocurrency off an exchange, it should mitigate the risk of hacking.

While the financial impact is yet to be determined from the FTX collapse, the effect appears to be isolated to the world of cryptocurrency and does not appear on the larger global markets. It is more than likely that big banks will continue to be wary of letting customers trade crypto through margin or loans. We should expect a continued emphasis on regulation in the cryptocurrency world and continued volatility in the price of cryptocurrencies.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading. We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy — and in the stock market.

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: CNBC, Investopedia, Schwab, Yahoo Finance

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This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

The Year-End RMD Deadline Is Almost Here. Are You Ready?

If you are 72 or older, you should have recently received a letter that outlines the required minimum distribution (RMD) you must take from your retirement accounts. This is happening because when you reach age 72, IRS rules require you to make annual withdrawals from the following types of tax-deferred retirement accounts: 401(k), 403(b), 457(b), Traditional IRAs, SEP IRAs and SIMPLE IRAs.

Why do RMDs exist?

If you have been saving part of your income in any of the tax-advantaged retirement accounts listed above, you have not paid income tax on those dollars. The government lets you delay paying taxes, but RMDs are how the government ensures it will eventually get its tax dollars on that income. For investors, the benefit of tax deferral is that while we know we’ll pay income tax eventually, we can pay less in retirement than we would during our working years.

Still, it is not unusual for people to find themselves in the same tax bracket — or even a higher one — in retirement. Income from investments outside of retirement accounts, combined with Social Security and RMDs, can add up quickly. At the end of the day though, the difference in tax brackets may not be as big as once projected when comparing retirement and non-retirement income.

When do I need to start taking withdrawals?

You must start taking RMDs when you turn 72 — or continue to take RMDs if you reached age 70 ½ before Jan. 1, 2020. Your first required withdrawal doesn’t have to be made until April 1 of the year after you turn 72. After your first withdrawal, the IRS requires you take RMDs by Dec. 31 each year.

The first time you take an RMD, if you were to wait until April 1 of the following year, then you would have to take a second distribution that same year. Doing so could affect Social Security and Medicare benefits and could lead to a higher-than-anticipated tax bracket.

There is one exception: People still working after age 72 usually may delay taking RMDs from their employer-sponsored plan until they retire. (If you are in that situation, please double-check with the IRS and your company.) However, if you own 5% or more of the business sponsoring the retirement plan, RMDs must begin once you turn 72, regardless of your retirement status.

How much am I required to withdraw?

Your required minimum distribution is based on your account value on Dec. 31 of the previous year. The IRS calculates RMDs by taking the sum of your tax-deferred retirement accounts and dividing it by a number based on life expectancy. The chart below illustrates how your RMD is calculated. As you age, the denominator gets smaller each year, so as you grow older, you are required to take out more money the following year. The cost of miscalculating or failing to withdraw the full amount is steep: The IRS charges a 50% penalty on any withdrawals not taken!

Chart detailing how an RMD is calculated

How can I minimize the tax impact of RMDs?

If you are 70 ½ or older, you can contribute up to $100,000 per year in a qualified charitable donation (QCD). For married couples, each spouse can make a QCD up to $100,000 — for a potential total of $200,000. QCDs can be made only to certain charitable organizations, and they cannot be made to donor advised funds. If you make a donation that exceeds the RMD, the extra distribution can’t be carried over to meet the distribution the following year.

The RMD is the smallest amount you must withdraw from your retirement account after you reach a certain age. If you have multiple retirement accounts, you may withdraw money from each account or from one account, as long as you ensure that the required minimum amount is withdrawn. Each dollar withdrawn is taxed as ordinary income.

Depending on your tax bracket, it may make sense to take money out of your retirement accounts before age 72. Once you reach age 59 ½, you can take money out of your retirement accounts without a 10% penalty, but you will still owe taxes on the money taken out. It is very important to spend time with your financial team so you understand your options to maximize your income and avoid a costly tax mistake.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Fidelity, Schwab, Securian

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

What Investors Should Know About the Midterm Elections

October saw the best month on record for the Dow since 1976 — a nice reversal after a tough September. The market continues to focus on inflation as the Federal Reserve meets this week to announce a fourth consecutive increase of 75 basis points.

We also have been receiving questions about what next week’s midterm elections may mean for the market — and for your portfolios. The United States is undergoing probably the greatest bout of political volatility since the Civil War. In six of the seven federal elections since the Financial Crisis of 2008, voters have removed the party in power over either the Senate, the House or the presidency.

It is difficult to predict who will win an election, but it is even more challenging to predict how the market will react. The market does not care who wins, but which policies are eventually enacted — and how they may affect the economic landscape. Changing a portfolio based on potential election outcomes is not a prudent decision. The chart below provides some perspective; no matter which party is in the White House and which party controls Congress, the markets have performed well over the long term.

Average Annual S&P Performance Based on Partisan Control

1933-2019 (excluding 2001-02, when Sen. Jeffords changed parties)

Here are a few potential implications from the upcoming midterm election:

1. Stocks have done well under every possible party configuration. Through peace and war, high taxes and low taxes, the market has persevered. Most partisan combinations saw double-digit returns, except for one, and that may have been due to bad luck.

2. The stock market is influenced by many factors, of which only a few are attributable to a president or Congress. Political actions are a small piece of the pie. For example, the 1973-1974 oil shock and the 2008 recession accompanied two of the worst markets in recent history. They both happened to occur when there was a Republican president and Democratic Congress. While certain policy decisions may have impacted these outcomes, a tremendous amount of geopolitical and financial complexity led to the ultimate result.

3. A Democratic House and Democratic Senate is the least probable outcome — but the clearest with regard to policy implications. If the Democrats were to win both the House and Senate, President Biden would be able to focus on remaining portions of the Build Back Better program, including additional spending, tax increases and opposition to fossil fuel infrastructure. The market may like this outcome the least.

4. A Republican House and Democratic Senate would probably bring gridlock after Jan. 3, along with a lame-duck session in Congress in November and December. Such a split in Congress would make it difficult for any real legislative policy changes to occur. As the chart above shows, the market has performed well with this political mix.

5. Republican control of the House and Senate would give them the most leverage. There could still be action during the lame-duck session, but it would require more compromise. The big issue between Congress and White House would be the debt ceiling that must be raised at some point in 2023. When one party controls Congress and the other party controls the White House, the market historically has seen positive results.

Simply getting to the election has acted as a catalyst for the stock market. The chart below shows the S&P 500 performance for the six months following midterm elections going back to 1950, and in each case, we have seen positive returns. The S&P 500 has not declined in the 12 months following a midterm election since 1942. Volatility in the market tends to be higher during midterm election years, and this year has been no different — with inflation, rapidly rising interest rates and geopolitical turmoil overseas.

Politics is an emotional game. and some of our worst biases and behavioral mistakes show up when we let our emotions influence our decision making. Investing is no different. We are here to work with you through the political noise and election-year volatility, regardless of the political winds.

Here Comes the Best 6 Months of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle

S&P 500 performance, November-April during midterm years

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: American Funds, Baird, Carson

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Here’s What You Should Know About Asset Allocations and Volatility

Last Friday, stocks capped off a volatile week of trading after the previous day’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September came in hotter than expected. Initially, this weighed on the markets as investors braced for the Federal Reserve to continue aggressively raising rates. After the release of the CPI report on Thursday, the S&P 500 opened down more than 2.4%, but by the end of the day, we had witnessed the fifth-largest intraday reversal from a low. The S&P 500 ended up 2.6% Thursday, reinforcing just how volatile this market is – much like previous bear markets. Then on Friday, the S&P gave back the gains from the day before, ending down 1.55% for the week.

The increase in volatility is not just in the stock market. Volatility has spiked in a range of markets from currencies to bonds, raising concern about the ability of the global economy to cope with higher U.S. rates. If these trends continue, the Fed may moderate its pace of tightening and slow the pace of reducing its balance sheet. The dollar has surged to new all-time highs on a trade-weighted basis, driven by a combination of relatively high U.S. yields and demand for safe-haven assets during global political turmoil. Fed officials have made it clear that financial market volatility alone will not affect their rate decisions.

As seen in the bar chart below, the only positive asset class other than cash through the first three quarters of the year has been commodities. (And gold, the most well-known commodity, is down almost 10% year to date.) In some instances, bonds are down as much as stocks this year. This begs the question: Is asset allocation dead? Does the old-style box chart investing —allocating money into growth and value, small cap, mid cap, large cap and international stocks as well as in bonds, as seen in the second chart below — not work anymore?

U.S. Markets YTD % Returns

Chart showing U.S. Markets year to date returns — Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and not subject to fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective. Source: Kestra Investment Management with data from FactSet. Index proxies: Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, Bloomberg US Aggregate, Bloomberg US Treasury Inflation Protected Notes (TIPS), Bloomberg US High Yield-Corporate, S&P 500, MSCI World ex USA, MSCI EM, Dow Jones US Select REIT, Dow Jones Global X US, and Bloomberg Commodity Index. Data as of September 29, 2022.

U.S. Equity Style Box Performance

For investors whose experience this year has them questioning asset allocation, the following may provide perspective on why we believe it remains effective.

• What we have seen in 2022 is unusual. The aggregate bond index (AGG) has been around since 1976. Since that time, the index has been negative four times, the worst being a decline of 2.9% in 1994. In each of those years, the S&P 500 has been higher by an average of more than 20%. This year appears to be an anomaly.

• The picture is more complicated on a quarterly basis. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has had 50 negative quarters, and the AGG has been lower in 16 of them. During the worst quarter of 2008, when stocks were down the most, the AGG was up. The third quarter of 1981 had been the worst quarter for the AGG until the second quarter of this year. The chart below shows the AGG’s total return each year. The red dots show the largest peak-to-trough decline each year. The average intra-year decline has been 3.2% versus an average decline of 14% for stocks. Historically, after bad years of performance, bonds tend to deliver strong returns in the years that follow.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Annual Returns and Intra-Year Declines

Chart showing U.S. Aggregate intra-year declines — Sources: Bloomberg, FactSet, JP Morgan Asset Management. Returns are based on total return. Intra-year drops refers to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough during the year. For illustrative purposes only. Returns shown are calendar year returns from 1976 to 2021, over which time period the average annual return was 7.1%. Returns from 1076 to 1989 are calculated on a monthly basis; daily data are used afterwards. Guide to the Markets — U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2022.

• Bonds can go down as well as stocks. The historical correlation between the S&P 500 and the AGG is close to zero. Stocks and bonds tend to each go their own ways relative to performance, rather than moving in decidedly opposite directions. It is also important to remember that bonds, like stocks, can and will go down, especially in an environment of rising interest rates.

• Dislocations can create opportunities. We do not think that traditional asset allocation is dead. While all but cash and commodities are negative this year, stock and bond valuations have improved. Diversification within stocks and bonds will continue to add value to a portfolio. Vanguard’s chief economist for the Americas, Roger Aliaga-Diaz, recently commented that “market volatility means diversified portfolio returns will always remain uneven, comprising periods of higher or lower – and, yes, even negative returns.” He went on to add:

“The broader, more important issue is the effectiveness of a diversified portfolio, balanced across asset classes, in keeping with the investor’s risk tolerance and time horizon.”

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Kestra Investment Management, Morningstar, CNBC, Vanguard, JP Morgan

Promo for article titled Worried About Retirement in a Down Market? Consider These Strategies

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Worried About Retirement in a Down Market? Consider These Strategies

The S&P 500 reached a new low last week, closing 25% down from its January peak. Markets may fall even more from here: Since 1961, the average peak-to-trough decline during drawdowns of 25% or more has been 38%. However, historical drawdowns of 25% or more have delivered a forward one-year return of 27% on average, with longer investment time frames proving even more compelling.

Timing the bottom of this market is difficult, if not impossible, for those considering going to the sideline and waiting to get back in after the market falls further. History suggests that those who stay the course have been rewarded.

Chart showing S&P 500 market performance during and after drawdowns of 25% or more since 1961 — *Source: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of October 6, 2022*

We read a lot about market returns averaging 8% to 10% per year, but as the chart shows below, such returns are not common at all. The 8% to 10% average comes from many years of outsized returns, followed by weak or negative returns and a few years of average returns. If you are not invested in the market or decide to move to the sidelines, it becomes much harder to obtain average returns. We cannot control the sequence of returns – i.e., what the market does on a yearly basis. It’s no secret that investing is not predictable; the market can be up 10% one year and down 10% the next year.

Chart showing S&P 500 Annual Returns from 2000 to 2002

When you are in the accumulation phase, the sequencing of returns does not have a significant impact on your ending balance. However, when you are entering retirement or taking annual distributions from the portfolio, the sequence of returns can make a big difference. A down market early in retirement — on top of taking distributions from the portfolio — can eat into your wealth through no fault of your own, other than bad timing.

While we can’t control bear markets, we can control how we respond to them. The key to overcoming sequence-of-return risk is to draw down as little as possible during that down period. Here are some strategies for the newly or nearly retired to consider:

Revisit your need for distributions:

Take another look at how you are planning to fund your expenses and consider alternate strategies to minimize how much you take out. For example:

• Healthcare expenses: If you funded an HSA account, make sure you use those funds for qualified health expenses before withdrawing from the portfolio.

• Charitable giving: Consider making a large gift to a donor-advised fund during an up year in the market. That fund will become your charitable checkbook so that you do not have to tap into the portfolio during down years in the market.

• Flexible withdrawals: Consider taking out more during up markets and pulling back when the market is struggling. This could help you ride out the down market by withdrawing as little as possible.

Build up cash accounts

One way to limit how much you need from retirement accounts is to build up liquidity in your cash accounts. By maintaining short-term cash and cash equivalents — such as CDs, fixed income, and money market accounts — you can keep from having to draw down your retirement funds prematurely. For the first time in many years, money market rates and short term bond rates offer attractive yields, and you can get paid to be in cash with those monies.

Be wary of debt

It makes sense to enter retirement with as little debt as possible. Excessive debt in retirement can affect not only your financial health, but also your physical and mental health as well, due to the strain of paying off debt without income from work.

Know your retirement account options

Once you reach a certain age (72) or older and have a traditional IRA or 401K, the IRS requires you to take an annual required minimum distribution (RMD). Roth IRAs do not have RMDs, allowing you to withdraw funds without penalty or tax. It may make sense before retirement to convert some or all of a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. This does require that you pay tax on the conversion amount at the time of the conversion. During a down market, doing a Roth conversion can reduce the taxes that you will pay since the value of the IRA is down, and it allows a future market recovery to happen in a tax-free account.

We fully recognize that bear markets are painful and challenging for all investors. Planning for retirement is a long road trip. On most long road trips, you are bound to run into some trouble — unexpected pit stops, flat tires or even a cracked windshield. But these bumps don’t last for the whole trip, and they do not ruin the overall journey. It is more important than ever to keep perspective and realize that these down markets don’t last forever, and good times have historically lasted much longer than the bad.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Goldman Sachs, Kestra Asset Management, Robert Baird, NYU

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Fourth-Quarter Outlook: Midterms, More Volatility and the Fed

Time slows down for no one. It is hard to believe we are already in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The third quarter of the year saw financial assets continue their decline, as all asset classes — other than cash — delivered negative returns. The Fed’s third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points (.75%) put further pressure on stocks and bonds. The summer rally we saw in July and early August was erased during the second half of the quarter as inflation continued to rear its ugly head.

The strong correlation of returns between stocks and bonds remained, as bonds were down almost 5% for the quarter. Credit quality in bonds has remained stable this year. However, slower growth, persistent inflation and higher rates could increase credit risk in the coming months. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both had their worst months since 2008, and the Dow had its worst month since 2002.

International stocks remain challenged by higher energy costs and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Developed markets were down over 9%, and emerging markets were the worst performing in the third quarter, down over 11%. The United Kingdom took strong action last week to step in and purchase bonds to help their markets with additional liquidity.

Chart showing returns for the third quarter of 2022 by asset class

As we head into the fourth quarter, the main drivers of the market continue to be inflation, China’s path to reopening from the pandemic and war in Ukraine. At the end of the third quarter, we saw a big bounce in short-term interest rates, with the 2-year Treasury trading close to 4.3%. As rates rise, bond prices fall. We are currently seeing high-quality fixed income valuations sitting near 10-year lows.

At the same time, S&P 500 forward Price to Earnings (PE) multiples are almost 10% below their long-term averages. These attractive valuations in stocks and bonds historically have led to significant long-term investment opportunities. The chart below shows how the market has responded following a bad month of September — and as we previously wrote, this September was one for the record books. The only instance of a continued slide occurred during the Great Financial Crisis, and we do not believe that this market is similar.

Chart showing October market performance after poor September results

What do we expect for the fourth quarter?

As earnings season starts in a few weeks, most companies are in the process of reducing their earnings forecast based on continued inflationary pressures and higher borrowing costs from rising rates. Only 7% of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving average. A month ago, that number was more than 90%. Leading economic indicators continue to show weakness in the global economy, and more economists think a recession may occur in 2023. As we have written many times, the stock market is a leading indicator. By the time the recession arrives, the stock market will be looking ahead and ramping up for the recovery phase.

Here’s what are we watching:

The Federal Reserve: The Fed has forecasted that the Fed Funds rate may move closer to 4.5% by the end of the year. Short-term rates have risen along with the higher Fed Funds Rate. If the Fed indicates it may ease interest rate hikes, we could see a market rally.

International banks: Over the weekend, rumors of potential liquidity issues at Credit Suisse spread through the markets. Questions about risk management and the firm’s ability to compete against larger Wall Street banks sent the stock plunging. Investors fear another “Lehman Brothers moment,” but since the Great Financial Crisis, we have seen a complete overhaul of the banking system to minimize another Lehman scenario.

Market volatility: Market volatility is always unsettling, but historically it is not unusual. We view volatility as an opportunity to purchase more of what you own when we have larger movements in the market.

Midterm elections: As we recently wrote, the S&P 500 has historically outperformed the market in the 12-month period after the election, with an average return of 16.3%. Since 1962, the S&P 500 has not experienced a negative return either six or 12 months following the election. The stock market has historically preferred when one party is in the White House and the other party controls Congress, even if no major legislation is passed.

Bear markets do not last forever. We are in a bear market for the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Going back to 1929, the average bear market lasts 20 months and has an average loss of 41%, as seen in the chart below on the right. However, the average bull market lasts 51 months and has an average return of 161%. The chart on the left shows how long it may take to get back to the all-time market highs seen in January, depending on the average annual return achieved. Staying invested during these times allows you to participate on the upside when the market recovers – which, historically, it always has.

Equity scenarios: Bull, bear and in between

Source: FactSet, NBER, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Left) The current peak of 4797 was observed on January 3, 2022. (Right) *A bear market is defined as a 20% or more decline from the previous market high. The related market return is the peak to trough return over the cycle. Bear and bull returns are price returns. **The bear market beginning in January 2022 is currently ongoing. The “bear return” for this period is from the January 2022 market peak through the current rough. Averages for the bear market return and duration do not include figures from the current cycle. Guide to the Markets — U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2022.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: JP Morgan, Carson Investment Research, CNBC, Schwab

Promo for an article titled Here's How the Fed Hopes to Get Inflation Pressures Under Control

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Here’s How the Fed Hopes to Get Inflation Pressures Under Control

Last week, the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate by another 75 basis points (.75%) for the third consecutive meeting. The current range is 3.00% to 3.25%. The Fed expects the Federal Funds Rate to reach 4.50%, implying another 125 basis points (1.25%) of tightening through interest rate hikes. Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the goal of taming inflation is likely to induce a recession: “Reducing inflation will likely require a sustained period of below-trend economic growth. No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or, if so, how significant the recession will be.”

At the same time, the Bank of England, Sweden’s central bank, Bank of Canada and European Central Bank have all raised rates by a minimum of 50 basis points (.50%) in the last few weeks. The global outlook is driven by the impact of central bank actions, as well as war in the Ukraine and lockdowns in China.

Powell’s comments pushed stocks sharply lower and sent the U.S. dollar to a 20-year high. (See our previous article: What Does a Stronger U.S. Dollar Mean for You?) Last Friday, stocks closed at their lowest levels since the pandemic in 2020. Stocks have struggled since an unexpectedly hot inflation report in August shocked investors who were looking for price relief. On top of the recent inflation report and the Fed raising rates again, September historically has been the worst month in the stock market, dating back to 1897. Since 1944, only two months have averaged negative returns, with September averaging down .56%, as shown in the chart below.

Theories abound as to why this is the case. It is generally believed that investors come back from summer vacation and want to sell holdings to lock in gains for the year, while others speculate that September marks the beginning of the period when mutual fund companies start to pay distributions, which triggers tax-loss selling. October has seen the largest decline in terms of percentage — think of the crash of 1987 — but historically has been a strong month on average, returning almost 1%.

Chart showing that since 1944, only two months have averaged negative returns, with September averaging down .56%, — *Source: CFRA BMO*

Historically, when stocks have decreased in value, the bond market has been there to offer a “buffer” or help mitigate downside risk. As the chart shows below, in each instance that the S&P 500 has decreased, going back to 1977, bonds have increased. However, that has not been the case this year. Through the end of August, the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index are down double digits. Over the last many years, the stock market has been the primary source of returns as money market and bond yields have been close to 0%. These conditions are sometimes called “TINA,” an acronym for “There Is No Alternative.”

We are moving from TINA to TARA — There Are Reasonable Alternatives. With the Fed Funds rate at 3% and the 2-year Treasury bond over 4%, savers can earn more money on their cash alternatives, and investors do not have to reach for excess yield either in the stock market or through lower credit risk in the bond market.

Chart showing that in each instance that the S&P 500 has decreased, going back to 1977, bonds have increased — Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd., Standard & Poor’s. Returns above reflect annual total returns for all years except 2022, which reflects the year-to-date total return for both indexes. As of August 31, 2022.

The Fed has made it abundantly clear that it is willing to sacrifice growth for lower inflation. Growth expectations were revised lower for this year and next. The Fed’s new forecast for 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 1.2%, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The Fed needs both GDP to decline and the unemployment rate to increase for inflation to return to its 2% target level. This is because if the overall output of the economy is increasing, price increases may follow as demand outpaces supply. If GDP is declining, corporate profits are less, and demand is decreasing — which in turn may lead to price decreases.

Much of the most recent inflation increase has been attributed to wage growth. If unemployment increases, then the upward pressure on wages may subside, bringing inflationary pressures down. The economy will be better off the sooner the unemployment rate reaches the “natural rate of employment,” which is the rate that is neither too low and inflationary nor too high and recessionary. At the same time, for the economy to turn the corner, demand and growth need to subside to help with inflationary pressure.

Should inflation begin to recede through a soft labor market and slowing GDP, markets may rebound on prospects for an end to the aggressive rate hikes of 2022. We will need to see several months of evidence that services inflation and wage inflation are trending down. It is critical to remain forward-looking and invested. The fourth quarter is historically the strongest quarter of the year. Missing out on the market rebound, when the largest up days typically occur in a bear market, can be detrimental to the long-term plan that has been constructed for both the good and bad times.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: American Funds, CFRA BMO, Schwab

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Is a Roth IRA the Right Choice for You? Here’s What You Should Consider

In the financial planning process, clients often ask us if it makes sense to open a Roth IRA or convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. As a refresher: With a Roth IRA, you contribute after-tax dollars, your money grows tax-free, and you can generally make tax- and penalty-free withdrawals after age 59½. With a traditional IRA, you contribute pre- or after-tax dollars, your money grows tax-deferred, and withdrawals are taxed as current income after age 59½. Roth IRAs are best suited for individuals in a lower tax bracket who expect to be in a higher tax bracket when they start taking withdrawals later in life. A traditional IRA may be best suited for those who expect to be in the same or lower tax bracket when they start taking withdrawals in retirement.

There are three main distinctions between a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA: eligibility, tax treatment and withdrawal requirements. The chart below provides a good summary on the differences.

• Eligibility – With both types of IRAs, the owner must have earned income to be eligible to contribute. For a Roth IRA, you must remain under a total income threshold to be eligible to contribute (income limits can be found here). There are no such limits with a traditional IRA; anyone at any income level can contribute.

• Tax treatments – Contributions to a Roth IRA won’t provide any immediate tax benefit because they are not deductible. Contributions to a traditional IRA may be deductible if you are not a participant in an employee-sponsored plan. Withdrawals from a Roth IRA can be tax-free if requirements are met. Withdrawals from a traditional IRA are typically fully taxable as ordinary income.

• Withdrawal requirements – Both traditional and Roth IRAs allow for withdrawals of any amount once you reach age 59½. Once the owner reaches age 72, traditional IRAs are subject to the required minimum distribution (RMD) rules, forcing money out of the IRA and triggering ordinary income. There are no RMD rules related to Roth IRAs; owners can leave the money in the Roth IRA to grow tax-free as long as they want. A Roth IRA’s beneficiaries generally will need to take RMDs to avoid penalties, although there is an exception for spouses.

Chart showing the differences between traditional and Roth IRAs

For those who are not eligible to contribute to a Roth IRA, there still is a way to take advantage of the tax-free growth. The Roth conversion, also known as a “back door Roth IRA,” allows a taxpayer to withdraw funds from a traditional IRA in a taxable distribution and then roll those monies into a Roth IRA. There are no income thresholds for a Roth conversion. If your tax bracket in retirement may be higher than your current tax rate, it may make sense to convert to a Roth IRA from a traditional IRA. This could happen if you accumulate significant savings in your retirement accounts or achieve top earnings later in your career. Here are five potential reasons to convert to a Roth IRA:

1. Portfolio losses: By converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, the tax will be assessed on the value on the date of the conversion. If you convert to a Roth IRA while the value is lower, the amount of tax owed will be less, and the rebound in value can grow tax free.

2. Anticipating higher tax brackets: If you expect your tax bracket to be higher in retirement, then you may prefer to pay tax on savings now, while you are in a lower tax bracket, and then access those funds tax-free in retirement.

3. Longer growth horizon: Roth IRAs have no RMD obligations, whereas traditional IRAs have RMD after the age of 72. Money in a Roth IRA can stay invested in the stock market longer, giving additional opportunities for growth.

4. Helping your heirs: If your traditional IRA is passed on to your heirs, they will also owe taxes on their withdrawals — and they must be completely withdrawn after 10 years. The Roth IRA withdrawals will be tax free, so you are effectively gifting tax savings to your heirs.

5. Paying for Medicare: If you are enrolled in Medicare Part B or D and your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is above a certain threshold, you pay a surcharge on top of your Medicare premium. Withdrawals from a traditional IRA are included in MAGI, while withdrawals from a Roth IRA are not.

Keep in mind the two biggest drawbacks to a Roth IRA conversion are that you must pay income taxes on any pre-tax funds you convert in the year you make it, and you cannot change your mind once you convert. It generally makes sense to use taxable assets rather than proceeds from the converted IRA to pay the tax cost of the Roth IRA conversion. This is because — all things being equal — the rate of return is generally higher for a Roth IRA because no taxes are due for any gains inside the Roth IRA.

Please remember that CD Wealth Management does not offer tax advice, but we work closely with your CPA and attorneys to ensure the right strategy is in place for you and your situation.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Fidelity, Schwab

Promo for an article titled The Importance of Compound Interest and Tax Planning on Your Portfolio

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

The Importance of Compound Interest and Tax Planning on Your Portfolio

Benjamin Franklin famously once said that “Money makes money. And the money that money makes, makes more money.” He was referring to compound interest. When interest you earn on a balance in a savings or investment account is reinvested, you earn even more money. You aren’t just earning interest on your principal balance; you are earning interest on your interest as well.

For example, if you make a one-time investment of $10,000, then earn 9% per year, the chart below shows the power of compounding your money. After 10 years. the initial $10,000 investment would be worth more than $24,000 — and after 30 years, it would be worth more than $133,000.

Chart showing returns on compound interest versus simple interest over time — Source: Investor.gov, as of November 4, 2021. This hypothetical example assumes the following: (1) starting investment of $10,000; (2) no additional pre-tax contributions; (3) an annual rate of return of 9%; (4) the ending values do not reflect taxes, fees or inflation. If they did, amounts would be lower. Earnings and pre-tax contributions are subject to taxes when withdrawn. Distributions before age 59 1/2 may also be subject to a 10% penalty. Contribution amounts are subject to IRS and Plan limits. Systematic investing does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss in a declining market. This example is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any security. Consider your current and anticipated investment horizon when making an investment decision, as the illustration may not reflect this. The assumed rate of return used in this example is not guaranteed. Investments that have potential for 9% annual rate of return also come with risk of loss

There is a shortcut to help you estimate the value of a future investment, called the Rule of 72. It’s a quick way to estimate approximately the number of years it will take to double your money using compound interest. As seen in the chart below, if you earn a 6% compounded return per year on your investment, then in about 12 years your money would be worth double. If you annualize 12% a year for 48 years, $10,000 could turn into over $2,500,000! To use the Rule of 72, simply divide 72 by the expected annual rate of return and that will provide you the number of years it would take to double your investment.

Chart explaining the Rule of 72 as it regards compound interest

Simple interest is interest that is earned based solely on the principal amount and is not reinvested. For example, if you have $1,000 and earn a 5% annual interest rate, you will get $50 a year in simple interest. In the second year, you would earn another $50. To calculate how long it would take to double your money with simple interest, the formula would be 1 divided by the rate of return. For example, if you made the same investment of $1,000 earning 5% simple interest, it would take you 20 years to double your money. Note that if you were able to reinvest the money and have it compounding, then it would take approximately 14.4 years to double.

It is important to consider tax implications prior to making any investment. If an investment is going to pay 10% interest on your principal and is in a taxable account, your actual return may be only 6% if you are in a top tax bracket and the income is taxed as ordinary income. If you are not able to reinvest the income, then the income becomes simple interest, and your money can take even longer to double. Suddenly, the 10% investment return that sounded great may not be nearly as good.

Taxes can dramatically impact your investment portfolio, both in the short and long term. There are different types of taxes on investments, and each one is taxed differently:

• Capital gains are profits from the sale of an asset. If you own the asset for more than one year and you sell for a gain, then you will pay long-term capital gains tax. The rate depends on your income level and can either be 0%, 10% or 20%. If you own the asset less than a year and sell it for a gain, then the gain will be taxed as ordinary income.

• Dividends usually are taxable income in the year that they are received. Even if you reinvest the dividend income, you pay tax on that income that year. There are two types of dividend income – qualified and non-qualified. Non-qualified dividends are taxed as ordinary income. Qualified dividends are taxed at either 0%, 15% or 20%, based on income level.

• Investments in 401Ks or IRAs allow you to defer taxes while the money is inside the account. Taxes are paid when you make a withdrawal, and that money is then considered ordinary income and is taxed at your income level.

Portfolio design and allocation are very important in order to minimize the tax impact on your returns. Structuring the portfolio to have the least tax-efficient assets in retirement accounts helps ensure that those assets are being taxed at ordinary income levels. The chart below shows the difference that tax management can have in a portfolio over time. If your portfolio is managed inefficiently — if it is heavily traded and focused on short-term gains — a $1 million portfolio could miss out on as much as $500,000 of returns over a 10-year period. Compound interest is an extremely powerful tool — whether it is in a retirement account, such as a 401K or IRA, or a taxable account, earning qualified dividends that are reinvested.

Chart showing the impact of taxes on investments over 10 years

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Fidelity, Forbes, Investopedia, Russell Investments

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Student Debt, Loan Forgiveness and the Crazy Cost of College

Those of us with kids or grandkids are well aware of the crazy cost of college today. Between 1980 and 2020, the average price of tuition, fees and room and board for an undergraduate degree increased 169%. In 1980, the price to attend a four-year college full time was roughly $10,000, adjusted for inflation. By 2020, the total price had increased to roughly $29,000!

Why have the costs of college gone up over time? There are many reasons: growing demand, pressure to go to college, rising financial aid, lower state funding, cost of administration and increasing student amenity packages to keep up. Aside from tuition payments, public colleges depend on funding from state and local governments. Typically, state and local funding make up about 44% of public four-year college revenues. However, economic downturns like we saw in 2008 and 2020 can lead to funding cuts. To make up for the lost dollars, universities must turn to other sources to raise monies, with the most direct source being higher tuition.

For most people, the cost of college may not be manageable – let alone the cost of graduate school or medical school.

More than half of bachelor’s degree recipients from public or private four-year colleges graduated with debt in 2020, with the average debt load being $28,400.

For college graduates with $50,000 or more of debt, the idea of one day owning a home and being debt-free feels like it’s a world away.

Even before President Biden was elected, one of his objectives was to provide student debt relief. Last week, he announced that the government will provide $20,000 in debt relief to Pell grant recipients and $10,000 for many other borrowers. Roughly 43 million Americans hold federal student loan debt, estimated at $1.75 trillion.

Chart showing the growth of student debt for college tuition from 2006 to 2022

Borrowers eligible for loan forgiveness must make less than $125,000 per year individually or $250,000 if married for the 2020 or 2021 tax year. Private loans will not be forgiven as part of the debt relief act. At the same time, the president also announced an extension of the pandemic pause on student loan payments through the end of the year, with payments resuming in January 2023. The Education Department said nearly 8 million borrowers are likely to have their loans forgiven automatically, and the remaining borrowers will have to apply for loan forgiveness. Current students also are eligible for loan cancellation, provided their loans were obtained before July 1, 2022.

There also is a new income-based repayment plan. For undergraduate loans, the relief act caps monthly payments at 5% of a borrower’s discretionary income; currently, borrowers must pay 10%. For borrowers with original loan balances of $12,000 or less, the balance will be forgiven after 10 years of payments; currently, they have to repay their loans for 20 years.

The plan will provide relief for borrowers at a time when the cost of education continues to surge. Critics question the fairness of the plan and warn about the potential impact on inflation should students with forgiven loans increase their spending. The debt forgiveness plan will not be like the $1,200 relief checks that the government sent out during the global pandemic, however they will be relieved of making loan payments over many years. Critics also believe that this relief bill penalizes those who scrimped and saved for college and worked jobs while in college to pay off their loans.

The elephant in the room remains the exorbitant cost of college, and many fear that government debt relief might encourage future students to take on even more debt, allowing colleges and universities to raise prices even further.

Chart showing the highlight's of Joe Biden's student loan debt plan for college costs, including tuition

Regardless of political beliefs, the affordability of higher education remains a larger issue. Between 2000 and 2021, the cost of college tuition increased at more than twice the pace of overall inflation, despite a slowdown in tuition hikes during the pandemic. As is most often the case with many bills passing Congress, only time will tell the full economic impact of the Student Relief Act.

While the form for forgiveness is not available yet, federal student loan borrower updates can be received by subscribing via the Department of Education’s website here.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Forbes, CNBC, Newsweek, USA Today

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.