Are Alternative Investments Too Good to Be True? Here’s What You Should Know

We have all been there before. You’re at a social event or party where you hear of a great opportunity to invest in some “private” deal or alternative investment. Maybe it is someone starting a business or an inventor with the next great idea — or even a new technology that may change the world. Some people may think these opportunities are like being invited to join an exclusive club for the rich and famous. Others may be searching for different ways to invest money outside of the liquid, public markets. 

Historically, these types of investments have been more accessible for the super-wealthy and made popular by Harvard or Yale endowments. They tend not to be correlated with the stock market and may offer the potential for high returns, but typically with much higher risk.

Opportunities such as these are called private investments or alternative investments — financial assets or investments outside the stock and bond market. Examples include private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, real estate, commodities and cryptocurrencies. Here’s a brief description of several alternative investments:

Private equity funds are invested directly into companies rather than into publicly traded stocks or bonds. Private equity firms raise money from investors and institutions and invest those monies directly into non-traded companies. There are several different types of private equity investments, such as distressed funds, leveraged buyouts and “fund of funds,” for example. 

Hedge funds are investment structures that pool monies together to invest in many different asset classes, and they are typically unconcerned with market direction. In its simplest form, a hedge fund is known as Long-Short. They go “long” by buying one stock in an industry, such as Ford, and “short” by selling another stock in the same industry, such as GM. Therefore, they are what is called market neutral.  Hedge funds, like private equity, take on many different types, such as macro, equity, value and distressed.

Venture capital investment typically involves financing startup companies and businesses. This is similar to how private equity works, but venture capital invests more in startup and early-stage businesses, whereas private equity investments are usually in more developed companies. There are different forms of venture capital investments such as seed, early-stage and expansion investments.

Real estate investments such as investment properties, office buildings, apartments or vacation homes also are considered alternative investments, as they are purchased outside of the publicly traded markets. There are many other types of alternative investments within real estate such as hard money loans, private notes, real estate partnerships and opportunity zone investments.  

Commodities are investments that typically are available to investors of all experience levels and easier to purchase than other alternatives, such as gold, silver, oil or natural gas.

Cryptocurrency has become a more recent phenomenon among alternative investments. Investors are putting money into Bitcoin or Ethereum or in the network blockchain, which is a digital ledger to track cryptocurrency movement and ownership. 

Graphic illustrating different investment types

The pros and cons of alternative investments

PROS:

They are not correlated to the stock market. This means that they add diversification to your portfolio while attempting to minimize risk. As we briefly outlined above, there are many different types of alternative investments, and the more investments one owns, the more one can potentially further reduce volatility in the portfolio.

There is a potential for increased returns. As with any risky investment, there are no guarantees or guaranteed returns. Proponents of alternative investments maintain that higher returns can be achieved through these types of investments — but with the potential for higher returns comes higher risk.

CONS:

They lack liquidity. Alternative investments tend to be private, i.e., not publicly traded, and therefore, they are less liquid. This means that they may be difficult to exit, and your monies could be tied up for many years, giving you no access to those funds. During the Great Recession, for example, many alternative investments stopped any redemptions of their funds, and clients who needed the money had no access to those monies.

They have high investment minimums. For many people, higher minimums may make such investments unavailable. If an investment requires a high minimum to participate and that investment makes up a large percentage of your net worth, then it may not be prudent to have that much of your nest egg in one, potentially illiquid investment.

They have higher fees. Most alternative investments carry higher investment fees than publicly traded funds do. At the same time, alternative investment fees are not always transparent, nor are they regulated by the SEC. Fees vary based on the type of investment, so it is important to understand the fee structure and how the fund manager gets paid.

They lack regulation. Alternative investments are not regulated by the SEC and are not subject to reporting requirements. In addition, the underlying assets are often difficult to value, which can be deceptive for pricing and price transparency. Because of the lack of regulation and transparency, this can lead to risk of fraudulent investments. When you buy a stock, index fund, mutual fund or bond, you know that what you are buying is a real asset.

They are complex. Alternative investments are often complex instruments and may require a high level of due diligence. If you are considering an alternative investment, it is imperative to do the research and understand all tax implications as well. For example, you may be a limited partner requiring a K-1, which in turn may delay filing your taxes. If you have several private investments, you may receive several K-1s, and this could lead to increased fees for filing taxes.

In recent years, alternative investments have grown in popularity. During down markets, alternative investments seem to become more popular as investors look to invest in something other than stocks.

Since alternative investments don’t have the same liquidity, transparency and valuation requirements of publicly traded stocks and bonds, investors may think that alternatives offer more security. 

As seen in the pyramid below, alternative investments are higher on the risk scale, and therefore need to be well thought out and researched before investing capital. Please remember: If it sounds too good to be true, it normally is!

Pyramid chart ranking investment types according to risk

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client. 

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading. We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy — and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: Forbes, Investopedia

Promo for article titled Unpacking the Inflation Reduction Act: How Will it Affect You?

This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Unpacking the Inflation Reduction Act: How Will It Affect You?

The Build Back Better Act that was so widely discussed at the beginning of the year has come to fruition in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which President Biden signed into law Tuesday. Its objective is to reduce inflation and the deficit, lower drug costs and increase investment in domestic energy production. The outcome of the Inflation Reduction Act will not be known for years to come, of course, but we want to discuss how some important parts of it may affect you.

What’s in the Inflation Reduction Act?

1. The bill introduces a 15% minimum corporate tax that applies to companies generating more than $1 billion in annual profit (based on a three-year average). Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that fewer than 150 companies will be subject to the new rate. At the same time, there is a new 1% tax on stock buybacks. A stock buyback, or share repurchase, occurs when a company buys outstanding shares of its own stock to reduce the number of shares available on the open market. One reason companies may do this is to increase the value of the remaining shares available. It is an investment a company makes in itself when it believes its shares are trading too cheaply in the open market. The new 1% tax goes into effect in 2023, which could cause some companies to speed up buying shares this year and “tilt future capital deployment toward dividends,” Wells Fargo says.  

2. The act has the potential to save retirees a significant sum of money on healthcare costs. It allows Medicare to negotiate prices for certain drugs for the first time in 2026 — starting with 10 drugs, then expanding the list to 15 drugs in 2027 and 20 in 2029. The act caps out-of-pocket drug costs at $2,000 a year for Medicare beneficiaries, starting in 2025. Today, there is no cap on what people may spend. The act also caps insulin costs at $35 per month for those on Medicare. Additionally, all vaccines will be covered under Medicare part D. According to a recent study by the Center for Retirement Research, retirees spend about 25% of their Social Security on medical expenses, including Medicare premiums and out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs.  

3. The Inflation Reduction Act allocates $80 billion over 10 years to increase IRS enforcement on taxpayers with more than $400,000 in income, with the goal to catch more tax cheaters. It is widely believed that this will dramatically increase the need for labor in our country, but with the unemployment rate at 3.5%, the question is: Where will the IRS find the new auditors needed?

Expected Results from the Inflation Reduction Act

REVENUE
15% corporate minimum tax: $313 billion*
Prescription drug pricing reform: $288 billion**
Enhanced IRS tax enforcement: $124 billion**
Total revenue raised: $725 billion

INVESTMENTS
Energy security & climate change investment: $369 billion***
Affordable Care Act extension: $64 billion**
Total investments: $433 billion

TOTAL DEFICIT REDUCTION: $292+ billion

* Joint Committee on Taxation, ** Congressional Budget Office, *** Both

4. The largest investment made by the Act relates to energy security and climate change, with billions of dollars going to expand wind and solar power production. Additional subsidies will be available for purchases of electric vehicles as well as funding for people to install energy-efficient heating and cooling systems in their homes. However, new rules make the EV tax credit harder to get, as there are limits as to the percentage of production that must occur in North America for the cars as well as for batteries. The credit is unavailable if the taxpayer’s adjusted gross income exceeds a threshold amount ($300,000 for taxpayers filing a joint return, $150,000 for single filers). There also is money available to oil companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and penalties for those that fail to do so.  

No one can predict the long-term results of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The good news is that inflation appears to be easing on its own as global supply chain disruptions ease and the Federal Reserve’s tightening of money supply is working. There is little debate, though, that this bill will help reduce the deficit. Retirees stand to benefit heavily from the future reduction in drug costs. The legislation stands to create the single largest investment in climate and energy in the U.S. to date: roughly $369 billion, with estimates of cutting emissions by as much as 40% by 2030. At the end of the day, though, we won’t know for many years how the Inflation Reduction Act affects inflation or corporate profitability.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client. 

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading. We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy — and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: CNBC, Investopedia, Financial Planning Magazine, Kestra Investment Management

Promo for an article titled Valuable Financial Advice for the Recent College Graduates in Your Life

This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS.  Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Valuable Financial Advice for the Recent College Graduates in Your Life

It’s hard to believe that summer is almost over and it’s time for the kids to go back to school. For many who just graduated from college, it’s time to begin their first real job! As our adult children move from college to the real world, it’s a good time to make sure they are ready to succeed and to be responsible for their own financial lives.

For those who are planning to rent an apartment rather than moving back home after graduation, start-up costs can accumulate quickly, going well beyond the price of rent alone. There will be a deposit needed for utilities, the cost of setting up and maintaining internet access, and expenses such as furniture, kitchen supplies and moving costs. Being able to cover these costs will require a budget — the most basic of all financial tools, and the most critical for people who are starting life on their own.

It’s exciting when our children get their first job offer. The starting salary may sound great — and it may even include a signing bonus! But if they’re not thinking about how much money in taxes comes off the top first, it can be quite surprising and a substantial hit to the budget.

Let’s use the example of someone with a starting salary of $50,000. A single filer making $50,000 in 2022 falls into the 22% marginal federal tax bracket. This doesn’t include Social Security or Medicare taxes. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume they withhold 20% for taxes out of their paycheck, so the $50,000 now drops down to $39,000 on an annualized basis or $3,250 per month. 

If the company has a 401K program that matches up to 3% of salary ($1,500 per year), they should contribute to get the “free money” from their company. (At a minimum, we recommend that they start out contributing 3% of their salary to their 401K so that they obtain the full match.) This will reduce their taxable salary from $50,000 to $48,500, since the $1,500 contribution into the 401K is not taxed. After taxes and retirement contributions, your child has to live on $3,200 per month. That amount of money must cover all other monthly expenses: rent, utilities, health insurance, car insurance, car payment, groceries, restaurants and entertainment.

This is where the budget comes into play. A great habit for them to start with is writing down everything that they spend so that they can see where the money goes and how fast it can disappear. If your adult child can stay on your health insurance (as they are allowed to do until age 26), then that will save them money each month. Once they are no longer living at home and they have a different permanent residence, they will need their own auto insurance. You also will want to make sure that they have renters’ insurance for their apartment to protect their belongings. This is relatively inexpensive, costing under $500 in many cases.

Debt is a silent killer for savings, eating away at assets each month. Credit card debt is the worst debt, with interest rates often exceeding 20%. If you have student loan and credit card debt, work on paying off the higher-interest debt first.

Student loans may take many years to pay off, so focus on eliminating credit card debt and then managing your spending going forward.

It’s important to discuss the concept of growing wealth with adult children who are starting their first jobs. As we mentioned earlier, many companies have 401Ks that match employee contributions. If a 22-year-old puts away $1,500 into a 401K every year until age 70 and earns an average of 5% annually, the value of that investment would be $300,000, not including the money from the match. The match equates to free money, and starting early sets them on a great path to earlier retirement. If their employer does not offer a 401K, starting an IRA or Roth IRA can accomplish the same goal initially.

The cost of adulting is not cheap. Buying a car, clothes for work and furniture are one-time expenses, which should be looked at as an investment and not a splurge. There will always be expenses that arise that can throw a wrench into the budget for those starting out, so we also recommend that your child begin a rainy-day fund for unexpected expenses.

Chart listing tips for saving money when starting your career
Previously published by USA Today

We are here to help you and your family with these new and exciting endeavors. At all stages of life, budgeting is critical to your financial well-being. By helping your children start early and creating a habit right out of college, you can help them experience more financial freedom as adults.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client. 

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading. We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy — and in the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.  In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Source: USA Today

Promo for article titled Are We in a Recession? Here Are the Indictors You Should be Watching

This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Are We in a Recession? Here Are the Indicators You Should Be Watching

Reports last week indicated that gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by -0.9% for the second quarter of the year, the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth after the first-quarter decline of -1.6%. As a reminder, GDP is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders during a specific time period, adjusted for inflation. 

Many investors and economists accept that a recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. However, negative GDP growth alone may be insufficient to describe a recession. Typically, we see rising defaults from companies and individuals as well as higher unemployment during a recession. As we have often written before, the National Bureau of Economic Research — a private research organization and the official arbiter of identifying recessions in the U.S. — describes a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity, spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” This definition leaves a lot of room for interpretation. 

The following are other observable and measurable economic conditions that could be recession indicators: 

Decline in real GDP: As stated above, we have seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Expectations for GDP growth have continued to decrease. Annual GDP growth rates remain positive, but estimates continue to be lowered as the year progresses.  
Decline in real income: Real median household income takes time to calculate due to revisions in inflation data. Data from May shows that personal income increased by .5%, disposable personal income increased by .5% and personal consumption expenditures increased by .2%. However, real disposal personal income decreased by .1%. Why the difference? Inflation. Remember, real income — also known as real wage — is how much money one makes after adjusting for inflation.   
Decline in employment: The unemployment rate has remained steady at 3.6% for five months in a row and arguably represents near full employment for the economy. The low unemployment rate combined with the rise in wages may suggest that consumers are somewhat resilient to a potential recession and economic slowdown.
Decline in industrial production: The industrial production index measures levels of production and capacity in the manufacturing, mining, electric and gas industries. Industrial production for June declined .2%, and prior months also were revised lower. The average monthly gain so far this year, however, remains positive at .4%. Industrial production increased at an annual rate of 6.1% for the second quarter. In a recession, we typically would see strong negative levels in the industrial production index.  
Decline in wholesale/retail sales: The consumer has remained strong and resilient for the first half of the year. The most recent wholesale report showed an increase of .5% and an increase in 20.9% from the May 2021 level. The most recent retail sales report exceeded expectations and showed an increase of 1% from the previous month and 8.4% above June 2021. 

If a recession were to occur, remember that not all recessions are the same. Recessions generally fall into three categories: 

Asset bubble recession: Think of the recession from the technology bubble in 2000 or the great financial crisis of 2008, caused by the housing crisis. This typically leads to a larger financial crisis and results in steep market declines. 
• Geopolitically driven recession: These are based on events such as the oil embargo of 1973-1974 or the COVID recession of 2020. They are typically the shortest in duration because they are event-driven.  
• Cyclical slowdown recession: This type of recession is usually the least extreme and occurs when there is a shift in supply and demand. As the chart below shows, cyclical slowdown recessions going back to 1947 decline 19.2% on average and have a very strong return the following year.

Average Equity Drawdown and Recovery During Recessions since 1947

Chart showing average equity drawdown and recovery during recessions since 1947
Source: Bloomberg and National Bureau of Economic Research. Published by AssetMark.

While the probability of a recession has increased, recessions in and of themselves are unavoidable. The economic indicators listed above will continue to provide us measurable data about the U.S. economy.

In spite of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the labor market remains strong, consumers seem resilient today, and output shows that supply-chain issues may be resolving themselves, especially with automobiles. Remember, recessions don’t last forever, and neither do bear markets.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading. We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy and the stock market. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: AssetMark, Investopedia, Lord Abbett

Promo for article titled The Portfolio Changes We're Making as the Third Quarter Begins

This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS.  Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

The Portfolio Changes We’re Making as the Third Quarter Begins

This is a big week for the stock market: Earnings season is under way with many of the large-cap names reporting this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates another 75 basis points (.75%), and second-quarter GDP estimates are set to be released. Many economists predict that this will be the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth, signaling to many that we are in a recession. 

However, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. The bureau does not define it as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Nonetheless, the stock market — which is a leading indicator — has been signaling for most of this year that the economy is slowing and a recession is possible. 

The chart below is a stark reminder of how the market performed the first half of 2022. There are many reasons for the broad-based declines in all asset classes – the ongoing war in Ukraine, China’s zero-COVID policy, fears of economic slowdown and — lest we forget — inflation. Stock markets look forward, pricing in what investors think will happen, not what is happening right now. As such, current stock and bond prices already reflect the significant economic slowdown, if not a full recession. Bear markets do end, and when they do, a bull market will ensue.

Q2 2022 Index Returns

Chart showing index returns for the first half of 2022 by sector
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and not subject to fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective. Source: Kestra Investment Management with data from FactSet. Index proxies: Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, Bloomberg US AGG Bond Index, S&P US TIPS, ICE BofA US High Yield, S&P 500, MSCI World ex USA, MSCI EM, Dow Jones US Select REIT, Dow Jones Global X US & Bloomberg Commodity Index. Data as of July 15, 2022. 

Knowing that bear markets will end and that they do not last as long as bull markets, we are in the process of reallocating and rebalancing our client portfolios to account for where we think the market is heading, not where it has been. We are making the following changes:

1. Earlier this year, we took additional profits in technology and healthcare and transitioned into broader value-based equities as well as mid-cap stocks for further diversification. From a long-term perspective, we believe strongly in both the technology and healthcare sectors and maintain broad exposure to both. Typically, in the late business cycle and entering a recession, we see growth moderating, credit tightening up, earnings coming under pressure and inventories growing as sales fall. With earnings season under way, we already have seen many Wall Street analysts and companies reduce earnings forecasts based on the strong dollar and the weakening economy. This must happen for the market to reach a bottom.

2. As we have written in the past, one of the positives of a down market is the ability to tax-loss harvest. Tax-loss harvesting does not always have to occur at year end. As a reminder, under current tax law, it’s possible to offset current capital gains with capital losses you’ve incurred during the year or carried over from a prior tax return. Capital gains are the profits you realize when you sell an investment for more than paid for it, while capital losses are the losses you realize when you sell an investment for less than you paid for it.

Short-term capital gains are taxed as ordinary income rates, whereas long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower capital gains rate. Being able to reduce the tax on both short- and long-term capital gains by harvesting losses can help offset the gains one incurs from taking profits. Harvesting the loss has no effect on the portfolio value, since one can use the proceeds from the sale to buy a similar investment. This allows the investor to maintain similar asset allocation and reduce federal income taxes. We want to take advantage now of several holdings trading at a loss and swap out those holdings to capture the loss while maintaining similar asset class exposure. We swapped out our small- and mid-cap funds, as well as the international fund, to harvest the current losses.

3. From a fixed-income perspective, we shortened the duration of the portfolio late last year as we anticipated higher interest rates in 2022. This has played out as we envisioned. While the fixed-income markets have not been spared the downdraft of the overall markets, we feel that most of the interest-rate change is accounted for in the bond market. Therefore, we are increasing the overall maturity of the portfolio to capture the higher yields that the market offers. At the same time, we are substituting a tax-free municipal bond position instead of a taxable bond fund, as municipal bonds offer great value in this market.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading.

We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to areas of strength in the economy and in the stock market. We strategically have new cash on the sidelines and buy in for clients on down days or dips in the market – as one does with a 401K. 

In the short term, the sentiment and the outlook for the global economy remain negative. Economists are debating whether the United States is in a recession, and if so, what this means. Regardless, we continually speak with our clients about staying the course and not listening to the noise. Even if we entera recession, every recession ultimately ends and expansion ensues, with an accompanying bull market.

We will continue to drive home the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and in having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Source: Kestra Investment Management

Promo for article titled Midterm Elections Are Around the Corner. What Does This Mean for the Market?

This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

What Does a Stronger U.S. Dollar Mean for You?

For the first time in nearly two decades, the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar is roughly the same. The parity in the two currencies comes after the euro has plunged almost 20% in value over the last 14 months compared to the dollar. This year, the U.S. dollar has gained against most major currencies, as the Fed’s interest rate hikes have made the dollar a safe haven for investors worldwide who are seeking protection against surging global inflation. 

The chart below shows the value of the euro compared to the dollar since 1999 and the wild swings that may occur in the currency markets. 

Source: Fortune

When the Federal Reserve raises rates, as it has done several times this year, Treasury yields also tend to move higher. This attracts more money into the U.S. from international investors, who in turn buy dollar-denominated bonds in hopes of obtaining higher yields than they can obtain in their own countries. The higher the yield, the better the return. The Federal Reserve has raised rates more aggressively in 2022 than many other central banks around the globe.

Another potential dynamic causing the strength of the U.S. dollar is the idea that the U.S. is a safe haven for investments, compared to many other countries. Russia’s war with Ukraine has caused considerable geopolitical and economic uncertainty in Europe. At the same time, China’s zero-COVID policy has been another drag on the global economy. While there is uncertainty in the U.S. regarding a potential recession, the bond market (i.e., U.S. Treasuries) remains a safe investment compared to other countries, boosting the dollar’s attractiveness.

Why does the strength of the U.S. dollar matter? For those traveling overseas, a strong dollar is quite advantageous. A stronger American dollar goes much farther abroad and provides more buying power. Everything is cheaper for Americans traveling out of the country. 

From an investment standpoint, the implications may be different. U.S.-based companies that have large international businesses are likely to suffer from a stronger dollar, primarily because converting overseas profits earned in weaker currencies into U.S. dollars can weigh on sales as well as earnings. Income from foreign sales will decrease in value on balance sheets because the foreign currency value has lost value. At the same time, domestically produced goods become more expensive abroad as the dollar increases compared to the currency where the goods are being shipped and then sold, driving down earnings.

On the other hand, goods produced abroad and imported to the United States will be cheaper with a stronger dollar. For example, a luxury car made in Italy will fall in price in dollars with the current parity between the dollar and the euro. If a car costs 70,000 euros and the exchange rate is 1.35, then it costs $94,500. However, if the exchange rate falls to 1.12, it would cost just $78,400.

Many companies will employ hedging techniques that may help improve gross profit margins and recover some of the lost revenue from the strong dollar. Some companies may sell their products overseas, and that may help them recover lost revenue from lower production costs. It also is important to note that currency swings of this magnitude tend to be short-lived. 

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So, what can we learn from all this? While the U.S. dollar is at parity with the euro for the first time in over 20 years, it is critical to remember that the overarching approach to investing in stocks and bonds is based on long-term fundamentals. There will be quarter-to-quarter fluctuations, currency headwinds and currency tailwinds with every company that performs business in multiple countries. The primary focus is to look at the underlying fundamentals of the businesses and not become consumed with shorter-term currency moves that may affect business for a quarter or two. In the meantime, if you have a trip planned overseas, enjoy the benefits of a stronger dollar.

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and remember that over time, markets tend to rise. During volatile markets, it is important to remember that the fear of losing money is stronger than the joy of making money. Investor emotions can have a big impact on retirement outcomes. Market corrections and bear markets are normal; nothing goes up in a straight line. 

Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and in having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: CNBC, Fortune, Investopedia, MSN

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This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS.  Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

How Will the Economy Fare in the Second Half of 2022?

The U.S. economy and the stock market struggled mightily in the first half of 2022, and the S&P 500 had its worst start in 52 years. Inflation levels not seen since the 1980s — combined with aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, the effects of the Russia/Ukraine war and continued COVID lockdowns in China — sent the S&P 500 into a bear market. While the S&P 500 officially crossed into a bear market in mid-June, many of the underlying stock holdings had been in a bear market for a while, which is similar with the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ as well.

The market attempted several rallies during the first half of the year, but aggressive Fed policy and the removal of liquidity from the stock market kept pressure on stocks. As a result of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve and Congress added trillions of dollars to the economy in the last few years. The Fed began aggressive interest rate hikes and stopped bond purchases to remove excess liquidity from the economy and slow down inflation. Fears of a recession have intensified, and more companies are lowering earnings guidance for the second half of the year.

The bond market also had a difficult six months. Inflation spiked higher than anticipated, and rates rose more rapidly than the market expected. Bonds were down almost 10% for the first half of the year. As the economy continues to show signs of slowing down, with a potential recession on the horizon, the 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to under 3%. The bond market is showing signs that the Federal Reserve may have to slow down the rate of increase and potentially even reduce interest rates in 2023.

We do not know when the bear market will come to an end, but we do know that it will come to an end.

As we recently wrote, the average bear market since 1929 has lasted 9½ months. Going back to World War II, the average bear market has lasted 12 months, and it has taken 21 months on average to break even after a bear market. The chart below shows the peaks and troughs of every bear market since WWII. On average, it has taken much longer to reach 20% losses than it takes to reach a bottom. Seven out of the last 12 bear markets have bottomed in 46 days or less, once the 20% barrier was breached. 

Chart showing peaks and troughs of previews bear markets
Source: Ben Carlson, A Wealth of Common Sense.

The chart below shows how the S&P 500 bounced back after first-half falls of 15% or more. The sample size is small, however, with only five instances going back to 1932. The S&P 500 did rise in each of these instances, with an average return of 23.66% and a median rise of 15.25%.

S&P 500 second-half performance after a first-half fall of 15% or more

Chart showing S&P 500 second-half performance after 15% fall in the first half
Source: Dow Jones Market Data, MarketWatch. 

Looking at the Dow Jones Index provides a larger sample size. The Dow Jones has had 15 instances of first-half declines of greater than 10%. The Dow was down almost 15% for the first half of the year, its largest decline since 2008. More than two-thirds of the time, the Dow rallied in the second half of the year for an average return of 4.45% and a median return of almost 7%.

DJIA second-half performance after 10% fall in first half 

Chart showing Dow Jones second-half performance after 10% fall in the first half
Source: Dow Jones Market Data, MarketWatch.

Please remember that past results do not guarantee future returns. Time will tell how the market responds to the current bear market. The charts above provide some great context for staying invested and hope that positive market returns may be around the corner.

So, what can we learn from all this? For the second half of 2022, we anticipate volatility to remain in both the equity and fixed-income markets. Our plan is to remain invested, take advantage of the markets being down by tax loss harvesting, and as always, to make the necessary tweaks to the portfolio as the economy continues to change. It appears more evident that the U.S. is headed towards a recession. GDP is likely to show two straight quarters of negative growth, a traditional sign that the economy is in a recession. Remember, though, that the stock market is a leading indicator and is already projecting that the economy is softening. Once the economy is in an official recession, the market is forward-looking and heading towards a recovery. 

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. 

In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and remember that over time, markets tend to rise. During volatile markets, it is important to remember that the fear of losing money is stronger than the joy of making money. Investor emotions can have a big impact on retirement outcomes. Market corrections and bear markets are normal; nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Ben Carlson, Dow Jones Data, Schwab

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This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS.  Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

What Should Investors Consider in a Bear Market?

Markets are good at reminding investors that stock prices don’t always go up. U.S. stocks continued their sharp drop on Monday after Friday’s inflation report, which showed that consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in 41 years. Although economists were already seeing signs of peak inflation with home, used car and lumber prices decreasing, the war in Ukraine’s effect on oil and gas prices led to a much stronger increase in the month-over-month consumer price index (CPI). As the markets braced for the Federal Reserve’s announcement on interest rate hikes, stocks in the S&P 500 again entered bear market territory, closing more than 20% below their all-time highs (which were set earlier this year). As we’ve written recently, bear markets, last an average of 15 months, while the average bull market lasts about six years. The chart below is a great reminder that on average, stocks have performed well three, six and 12 months after falling into a bear market.

Down markets provide investors with opportunities that may help with returns, reduce risk and provide tax advantages over time. What should you consider in a down market like the one we have today?

First, and foremost, do not panic

Panic is not an investing strategy. Selling and going into cash when the market is down can do irreparable harm to your long-term financial outlook. There is a reason you have a financial plan, and now more than ever is the time to stick with it.

Rebalancing portfolios

Investment portfolio construction, when done properly, is made up of various securities and asset classes that each perform differently. You may have often heard the term “asset allocation,” which references how a portfolio is constructed of stocks, bonds, cash, etc. Within each of these categories, there are different investment exposures. For stocks, the exposures might be small-cap, mid-cap, large-cap and international, while bond exposure may have investment-grade bonds, high-yield bonds, floating-rate bonds, treasuries, etc. By combining each of the different asset classes together, the overall risk of the portfolio may be reduced.

Over time, the portfolio may need to be rebalanced. Think of it like taking your car in for a tune-up after hitting a big pothole or speed bump. After large market moves, either up or down, a portfolio may benefit from tweaks or adjustments. The graph below displays how a portfolio needs a tune-up. Following the pandemic, a portfolio that had a 50-50 stock/bond allocation has grown to 65% stocks and 35% bonds a year and a half later, due to the run up in the market. Rebalancing helps investors ensure that they’re taking an acceptable level of portfolio risk and adhering to their set financial plan. It also helps with the adage of “buy low and sell high.”

Without Rebalancing, Large Market Moves Can Add Risk to a Portfolio

Tax-Loss Harvesting

When markets are rising and stocks or funds are sold for a profit, taxable gains occur. While taxable gains are not necessarily fun, they are a necessary part of investing. Selling holdings when the values are down may generate losses, which can be used to offset capital gains and potentially lower your future tax bill. Investment losses may also be used to reduce taxes on ordinary income. For further details, please see our past client letter on tax-loss harvesting.

Dollar-Cost Averaging*

Who doesn’t like shopping when their favorite items are 20% off or even more? With Monday’s losses, the S&P 500 is down nearly 22% from its high in January. The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are down almost 30% from their recent highs. Investing in stocks when prices are down can be a powerful way to generate wealth over time. We recognize that it may be hard to invest more cash into the market when it is falling, but that is where dollar-cost averaging comes into play. For those in a 401K plan, this is exactly what you are doing – every two weeks you are investing money into the portfolio, whether the market is up or down.

There are very few free lunches in the investment world. As the saying goes, if it is too good to be true, then more than likely it is. However, asset allocation, diversification and periodic rebalancing are as close as it gets to a free lunch for investors. We are fully aware that down markets can be painful. At the same time, they can create opportunities for those who have excess cash. The chart below is a great reminder that historically, bull markets last much longer than bear markets, and the total return of a bull market far outweighs the negative return during a bear market.

Source: Charles Schwab

So, what can we learn from all this? Sticking with the financial plan during times like these can be a real challenge – but that is why you have the plan. If we use our heads and don’t act on emotion, we can expect a more successful investing future — and maybe even get a free lunch along the way, thanks to rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting and dollar-cost averaging.

During these challenging times, it is important to keep the following in mind: 

• Ignore the noise and sensationalist headlines.
• Remember that selling into a panic is not an investment strategy.
• Market declines are a part of economic cycles.
• Don’t try to time the market. Instead invest regularly, even when the market is falling.

It is likely that this recent market drop may be a mere blip in the long-term investment plan. We do not try to time the market. What really matters is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sticking with the financial plan during times like these can be a real challenge – but that is why you have the plan.

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and remember that over time, markets tend to rise. During volatile markets, it is it is important to remember that the fear of losing money is stronger than the joy of making money. Investor emotions can have a big impact on retirement outcomes. Market corrections are normal; nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Kestra Investment Management, LPL, Schwab

*Dollar cost averaging does not assure a profit and does not protect against a loss in declining markets.  This strategy involves continuous investing; you should consider your financial ability to continue purchases no matter how prices fluctuate.

This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

4 strategies to help investors worry less about the markets

Rising recession fears pushed U.S. stocks briefly into bear market territory last week, with the S&P 500’s decline from its all-time high reaching 20%. There is no official bear market designation on Wall Street, though some may count Friday’s intraday lows as confirmation of one. The Dow Jones is mired in an eight-week losing streak, the longest since 1923. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has been down seven straight weeks, the worst run since 2001.

We recognize that these times may make investors uncomfortable. Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, famously said, “Stay the course, don’t let these changes in the market, even the big ones [like the financial crisis] … change your mind — and never, never, never be in or out of the market. Always be in at a certain level.” When the market was experiencing wild fluctuations in 2016, the great Warren Buffet told investors, “Don’t watch the market closely. Try not to worry too much about it.”

Here are four ways to stay on track toward achieving your goals while avoiding the common pitfalls investors experience during turbulent times:

Remember that this, too, shall pass. 

Declines have been common occurrences and, on average, have not lasted a long time. Investors who realize that declines are inevitable and temporary have avoided the imprudent behavior of selling out of the market during down times. The market has always recovered from declines (although past results don’t guarantee future results). The chart below puts into context the frequency and duration of previous declines.

Chart showing a history of market declines in the S&P 500 from 1951 to 2021

Keep your focus on the future. 

It is important to maintain proper perspective; don’t place too much emphasis on recent events or disregard long-term realities. Long-term investors have been rewarded: The chart below shows that going back to 1937, the 10-year average return of the S&P 500 is 10.57%. That doesn’t mean that there haven’t been periods of time with below-average returns, but staying invested through those times has paid off for the long-term investor.

Chart showing the S&P 500 rolling 10-year average annual total returns

Don’t try to time the market.

If you sell now and hope to get back into the market if it goes down further, you could miss out on gains when stocks recover. As we have written before, the pain humans feel from losses is greater than the joy they feel from an equal gain. Every S&P 500 downturn of 15% or more has been followed by a recovery. As shown on the chart below, the average return following the five biggest market declines since 1929 has been 70.95%. Over the longer term, the average value of an investment more than doubled over the five years after each market low.

Chart showing the five biggest market declines and subsequent five-year periods from 1929 to 2021

Don’t let emotions cloud your judgment.

As we often say, avoid the noise. Look past the headlines and stay focused on the longer-term goals. Don’t look at the market — or your account value — every day. During volatile times, look at the portfolio less often, knowing we are watching your portfolios very closely and continuing to make tweaks along the way. Investors tend to make poor decisions when they let their emotions take over.

Image of the emotional cycle during market volatility

So, what can we learn from all this? It is always difficult to see the value of your investments fall. During these challenging times, it is important to keep the following in mind:

• Ignore the noise of the sensational headlines.
• Selling into a panic is not an investment strategy.
• Market declines are a part of economic cycles.
• Don’t try to time the market, and do invest regularly, even when the market is falling.

It is likely that the current market drop may be a mere blip in the long-term investment plan. We are not going to try to time the market; what really matters is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns.

We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions, and remember that over a longer time horizon, markets tend to rise. Understanding that people fear losing money more than they enjoy making money is important during volatile markets. Investor emotions can have a big impact on retirement outcomes. 

Market corrections are normal, as nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Source: American Funds, CNBC

Promo for an article titled Frequently Asked Questions as the Market Correction Continues

This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS.  Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

FAQs as the market correction continues

The overall market sentiment feels very negative as the market has declined five consecutive weeks and began this week in similar fashion. Consumer confidence, a leading economic indicator, is negative. Market volatility remains elevated, as the VIX index closed at 35, more than double the historical value. Inflation is on everyone’s mind these days, especially at the grocery store or the gas pump. 

All market corrections feel similar: The sky is falling — how will the market ever come back or turn around? While we recognize that these times are painful from a portfolio perspective, we also realize that market corrections are healthy for the long-term performance of the market. It is important to remember that stock market downturns often are followed by a period of positive market performance. Since 1987, every major decline in U.S. equities has reversed itself between 21% and 68% within the following year, as seen in the chart below. And those who dollar-cost average in their portfolios — whether in taxable or tax-deferred accounts — have the potential to take advantage of the market recoveries by adding more monies into the portfolio.

Chart showing the S&P's biggest declines and the next 12 months' returns
Source: Morningstar as of 2/28/20. Returns are principal only, not including dividends. U.S. stocks represented by the S&P 500. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.

Here’s another way of looking at the volatile nature of markets and corrections: The chart below shows intra-year declines over the 20-year period from 2002 to 2021, which includes the pandemic. A decline of at least 10% occurred in 10 out of 20 years (50% of the time), with an average pullback of 15%.* Despite these pullbacks, stocks rose in most years, with positive returns in all but three years and an average gain of 7%.

Chart showing the S&P 500 Index annual returns and intra-year declines over the last 20 years

We want to share with you a few frequently asked questions that we are receiving during the market sell-off in hopes that they answer questions you may have:

I’m hearing a lot about I-bonds. What are they — and should we invest in them?

Series I Savings Bonds are a type of U.S. savings bond designed to protect the value of cash from inflation. Interest rates on I bonds are adjusted regularly to keep pace with inflation. Investors can purchase up to $10,000 of I bonds annually per person through the government’s Treasury Direct website. I bonds earn interest monthly, though you don’t get access to interest until you cash out the bond. You must own the bond for at least five years to receive all the interest that is due. You cannot sell the I bond before holding for one year. If you sell after one year and before the five-year holding requirement, you forfeit three months of interest that has been earned. These bonds have an actual maturity of 30 years. Keep in mind that these bonds cannot be purchased through our office and can only be purchased online through the Treasury Direct website.

Are there any changes to the portfolio that we need to make, and should we continue to purchase bonds?

As we communicate each week, we are constantly analyzing the market, the economy and the portfolios. To use the old hockey adage, we are skating to where the puck is going, not where it is. We are not going to make changes to the portfolio to time the market, but rather we are being strategic and thoughtful. We understand that market volatility is unsettling, but historically, this is not unusual.  The portfolios are diversified and invested per each client’s risk tolerance. 

We tweaked the fixed-income portion of the portfolio late last year to shorten the maturity and duration of the bonds. Bonds have had their worst start to the year in history, but we do not believe that it is in our clients’ best interest to abandon fixed income and move to cash or to increase risk tolerance and move to equities. While both stocks and bonds are down to start the year as inflation peaks and the Fed slows down interest rate hikes, we believe bonds will provide the necessary diversification and income to help the portfolio during market volatility. 

Bonds can be used for three primary purposes: income, capital preservation and equity diversification. As is the case with equities, being diversified within fixed income may help reduce portfolio risk. As always, we will communicate any portfolio changes as they occur.

Where does the market go from here?

Four main factors continue to be at play with this market: inflation, the war in the Ukraine, China and its continued lockdowns, and the Federal Reserve. Last week, the Fed raised rates by 50 basis points. Chairman Powell commented that the Fed is “strongly committed to restoring price stability” and that a 75-basis point hike is “not something the committee is actively considering.” Stocks are likely to remain volatile as the Fed pushes interest rates higher. 

The possibility of a recession later this year or next year remains in play, but strong earnings growth and record low unemployment are not recessionary indications. Remember that the stock market is a leading economic indicator, and often, the market sells off before the recession or the economic bottom of the cycle. By the time the economy feels worse, the stock market is already starting to recover. We do not know when the market will hit bottom, but we remain strong believers in the long-term fundamentals of the market.

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So, what can we learn from all this?  Selling into a panic is not an investment strategy. Understanding that people fear losing money more than they enjoy making money is important during volatile markets. Investor emotions can have a big impact on retirement outcomes.

It is likely that this recent market drop may be a mere blip in the long-term investment plan. We are not going to try to time the market; what really matters is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest — even when the markets dip — to take advantage of potential market upturns.  

We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

At the end of the day, investors will be well-served to remove emotion from their investment decisions and remember that over a longer time horizon, markets tend to rise. Market corrections are normal, as nothing goes up in a straight line. Making market decisions based on what might happen may be detrimental to long-term performance. The key is to stay invested and stick with the financial plan. Markets go up and down over time, and downturns present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower value.

It all starts with a solid financial plan for the long run that understands the level of risk that is acceptable for each client. Regarding investments, we believe in diversification and having different asset classes that allow you to stay invested. The best option is to stick with a broadly diversified portfolio that can help you to achieve your own specific financial goals — regardless of market volatility. Long-term fundamentals are what matter.

Sources: Blackrock, Forbes, Schwab
*As of Tuesday, May 10, the S&P 500 is down more than 15% year-to-date

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This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS.  Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.