Market Movement Archives | Page 9 of 21

Will the Fed Change Its Approach to Rate Hikes After the Banking Crisis?

It has been almost three weeks since the wake-up call from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, the 16th-largest bank in the U.S. Two days later, Signature Bank also failed. With the fear of contagion spreading, European banks also came under pressure, forcing regulators to step in and shore up financial institutions. Recently, Swiss giant UBS agreed to acquire rival Credit Suisse to help restore confidence in the global banking system.

For more than a year, investors have been wondering what would allow the Federal Reserve to alter its path of aggressive rate hikes to slow down the economy and inflation. Thanks to the banking crisis, it appears we have the answer. The interest-rate outlook for the balance of 2023 and beyond appears to be dramatically changed.

These events have led to an economic environment in which the Fed is tempering its hawkish tone and may even start cutting rates before the end of the year. (A hawk in the financial world is associated with aggressive monetary policy that favors higher interest rates to curb inflation.) While the Fed did raise the Fed funds rate by another 25 basis points last week, the central bank omitted language referring to the need for “ongoing” rate increases. The blue line in the chart below illustrates the sentiment shift from economists, reflecting a new potential path for the Fed. The latest Summary of Economic Projections suggests that Fed governors expect only one more rate hike this year.

SVB Collapse Has Drastically Altered Interest Rate Expectations

Since SVB’s failure, we have seen short-term Treasury yields plummet. The yield on the 2-year Treasury fell almost a full percentage point (100 basis points) over a three-day period, marking the largest decline since the Black Monday crash of 1987. The rapid decline in bond yields over the past three weeks means investors expect the Fed to cut rates as expectations for economic growth and inflation fall.

Another potential explanation for the falling yields is that more economists are predicting the possibility of a recession than before SVB’s troubles emerged. We have seen a dispersion between CD rates and Treasury yields since the SVB collapse; CD rates have remained elevated due to potential banking issues, while Treasury rates have remained depressed. Investors fled smaller regional banks and put excess cash into Treasury bonds, backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, forcing rates lower.

One of the strongest recessionary indicators remains the inverted yield curve. This is when the short-term U.S. Treasury bond yields are higher than the longer dated bonds. The yield curve first inverted in July and remains inverted today. The spread between the 10- and 2-year Treasury has decreased significantly since the SVB collapse, another sign that the bond market is forecasting a recession. In the four previous recent recessions, the yield spread between the 2- and 10-year bond reversed to a normal yield curve, and then the recession started.

Inverted Yield Curve Warns of Recession Risk

Difference between 10- and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields (%)

The Fed has a small window in which to avoid a recession. It still is targeting 2% inflation, but the costs associated with allowing inflation to remain high have become more severe since the SVB collapse. The current economic environment may be transitioning from an “asset crunch” to a “credit crunch,” which will inherently slow down economic growth and bring down inflation. We will continue to monitor the ongoing banking environment and keep you informed. As with any crisis, this one also presents potential investment opportunities, especially for those investors with long-term horizons.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out, looking at where we see the economy is heading. We are not guessing or market timing. We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy — and in the stock market.

We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns. We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been.

It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator. Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: Capital Group, Schwab

Promo for article titled Taking Stock of the Federal Reserve's Fight Against Inflation

This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Investment Services, LLC or Kestra Advisory Services, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation.

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS) an affiliate of Kestra IS. CD Wealth Management and Bluespring Wealth Partners LLC* are affiliates of Kestra IS and Kestra AS. Investor Disclosures: https://bit.ly/KF-Disclosures

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Fidelity Investments and Fidelity Institutional® (together “Fidelity”) is an independent company, unaffiliated with Kestra Financial or CD Wealth Management. Fidelity is a service provider to both. There is no form of legal partnership, agency affiliation, or similar relationship between your financial advisor and Fidelity, nor is such a relationship created or implied by the information herein. Fidelity has not been involved with the preparation of the content supplied by CD Wealth Management and does not guarantee, or assume any responsibility for, its content. Fidelity Investments is a registered service mark of FMR LLC. Fidelity Institutional provides clearing, custody, or other brokerage services through National Financial Services LLC or Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Members NYSE, SIPC.

Taking Stock of the Federal Reserve’s Fight Against Inflation

We continue to watch the battle of the Federal Reserve vs. inflation play out in front of us. Will inflation continue to drop? Did the Fed move too early in reducing rate hikes? Will the Fed continue to raise rates longer if inflation remains persistent? Will additional rate hikes cause further pressure on the regional banks?

The Federal Reserve is facing one of its most difficult policy decisions as it grapples with stubborn inflation data and a simmering bank crisis. The Fed announced Wednesday it is raising rates another 25 basis points; the Federal Funds rate is now 4.75% to 5%.

Inflation started picking up in the spring of 2021 as the economy came roaring back from the pandemic. At first, the Fed dismissed the resurgent price spikes as temporary or transitory, assuming they would resolve themselves when supply chains returned to normal. As we know now, supply bottlenecks lasted longer than expected, and inflation is still the main topic of conversation almost two years later.

By June of last year, the consumer price index was 9.1% higher than the year before and the highest in four decades. The Fed raised rates for the first time a year ago, in March 2022, and it has now raised rates nine times. Inflation has edged lower since the peak in mid-2022. However, the Fed has not yet won the war with inflation; new data show an upturn in inflation and a stronger-than-expected economy.

Consumer Price Index: All Items, Month Over Month

A concern is that inflation may prove harder to slow than initially thought. Households have increasingly shifted spending away from physical goods to experiences, such as traveling, restaurants and entertainment. Inflationary pressures also have shifted from goods to services. With all these moving parts, what are the factors that make up inflation?

Inflation can be separated into three broad categories – goods, shelter and wages. Right now, each group is fighting its own fight:

• Goods prices include a variety of tangible items such as eggs, cars or gasoline. Prices of goods tend to move quicker than others. We have all experienced a quick rise in gas prices. More recently, the egg shortage due to the avian flu has caused prices to rise dramatically. Consumer durable goods — those that don’t have to be purchased frequently, such as appliances, computers or televisions — are lower than they were a year ago, and leading indicators suggest further price easing still is to come.

• Shelter prices consist of two major components: home prices and rents. Both tend to move more slowly than prices of goods. We are starting to see signs of easing in this category. As of January, existing U.S. home sales had decreased for 12 consecutive months. In January, the median sales price of existing homes increased by 1.3%, the smallest gain since February 2012.

Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price of Existing Homes

• Wages tend to move much more slowly, and once they are elevated, become more difficult for the Fed to reduce. Jobs remain plentiful as employers added 517,000 jobs in January and 311,000 in February. The unemployment rate moved up to 3.6% but remains close to historically low levels. Average hourly earnings rose 4.6% from a year ago, but this was less than expected and may be a sign of easing wage pressures.

Monthly Job Creation in the U.S.

January 2022 through February 2023

The Federal Reserve has a tough battle on its hands between inflation, the recession and the banking crisis. How much can the Fed raise rates now that several banks have collapsed under the weight of eight interest rate hikes in a year?

The fight over the Fed being data-dependent, how much to continue raising rates and how much to keep the economy from a hard landing into a recession will lead to continued volatility and turbulence. It is important to remember that it does take time — typically 12 to 18 months — for rate hikes to work their way through the economy, and the Fed is taking that into consideration.

It is also important to remember that the stock market is forward-looking and efficient. Publicly known data is already priced into the market. It is the unknown economic data and the Fed’s reaction that we will continue to monitor and keep you updated about along the way.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: AP, CNBC, Kestra Investment Management

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Here’s What Investors Need To Know About Banking Turmoil in the U.S.

Last week, the financial markets experienced a shock not seen since the days of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. The second-largest bank failure on record happened when Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) shut its doors on Friday after it was unable to meet the demands for its customers to redeem their money. SVB was a nearly 40-year-old bank that primarily served the tech world along with private equity and venture capitalists.

Clearly, the sudden nature of SVB’s collapse caught the banking world by surprise. Within 48 hours, the bank went from trading over $300 per share to being shut down. Venture capital companies helped lead the run on the bank, withdrawing more than $42 billion by Thursday. The bank was mismanaged in many ways, and its management has questions to answer. SVB took in a large amount of deposits from 2019 through 2021. With those monies, the bank purchased longer-dated Treasuries to earn interest on the cash and help with the spread on what it was lending out.

Over the last 12 months, the Fed has raised interest rates eight times. When rates rise, bond prices fall. Longer-dated bonds have more volatility, so their prices tend to fall more than shorter-maturity bonds.

Last week, when SVB clients started to demand their monies as rumors of the bank’s losses mounted, the bank had to sell more bonds at a large loss due to the rise in rates. SVB had not put proper hedges in place to manage interest rate risk and exposed its clients to these losses. We do not believe that this is an industrywide issue or that there will be runs on other banks.

Could other banks have a similar fate to SVB? The short answer is yes. But remember: After both the Great Depression and the Great Financial Crisis, processes and procedures were put in place for this very reason.

A large percentage of the bank’s deposits were uninsured, i.e., over the FDIC-insured limits of $250,000 per person and $500,000 for a married couple. Many companies used SVB for their banking, and companies like Roku had an estimated $487 million in deposits at SVB. Smaller tech companies also had their cash there and are now trying to figure out a way to meet payroll.

The Federal Reserve said it is taking actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in the banking system. This step will ensure that the banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth.

Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of SVB will be assumed by the taxpayer.

The Fed also announced a similar systemic risk exception for New York-based Signature Bank. All depositors of this institution will be made whole. As with the resolution of SVB, no losses will be assumed by the taxpayer.

Shareholders and certain unsecured debtholders will not be protected. Senior management has also been removed. Any losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund to support uninsured depositors will be recovered by a special assessment on banks, as required by law.

As the week progresses, we should learn more about what the government, Federal Reserve or FDIC may do to continue to calm the waters.

Biggest Bank Failures

Chart showing the largest U.S. bank failures

We want to remind and reassure you of the financial strength of Fidelity and the power of independence and team behind CD Wealth Management. The chart below outlines the approach CD Wealth takes with our clients. We do not take custody of any assets. We are the team that works with you to create your plan, oversee your monies and guide you on a daily basis. We invest your assets in the public, liquid markets. Your assets are custodied, or held, at Fidelity Institutional®. Fidelity is not a bank like SVB, or even Chase, Bank of America or Wells Fargo. Fidelity does not take in deposits to then make loans for homes, mortgages, businesses, etc. It is not investing your monies in bonds to make a spread on deposits as banks are.

Fidelity is a clearing house to hold your monies, whether in cash, stocks, bonds, mutual funds or exchange traded funds. It is important to understand and feel confident that institutions like Fidelity and Vanguard are not in the same business as commercial banks. That is why we choose to use them and not blur the lines between banking and investment management.

Chart showing the relationship between CD Wealth, Fidelity and Kestra

Please know that we have full faith and confidence in the banking system today. Most importantly, we have full faith and confidence in where your monies are being held (Fidelity Institutional®) and in the money markets where your monies are being invested. Please do not hesitate to reach out with any questions that you have.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, FDIC, CD Wealth Management

Promo for an article titled Artificial Intelligence Is Changing the World — Here's What You Should Know

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Artificial Intelligence Is Changing the World — Here’s What You Should Know

The rise of artificial intelligence has become a major theme in the first few months of 2023. AI has played a large role in our everyday lives for some time now, but aside from comments by companies like Nvidia, Microsoft and Google in their conference calls, many investors may know little about it.

History of Artificial Intelligence

AI is defined as “the study and development of computer systems that can copy intelligent behavior.” In a primitive form, the concept of AI goes back to the Age of Antiquity, but modern AI began in the 1950s with work by John McCarthy, Alan Turing and other computer scientists who sought to prove that computers could be programmed to mimic humans’ problem-solving capabilities.

The surge in the field of AI has been fueled by exponentially growing amounts of data and data-processing capabilities that allow computers to better manipulate the numbers. As computers have become faster and able to process more data, AI has become more relevant. (Those of us who were teenagers in the 1980s might remember the question “Shall we play a game?” from the movie WarGames, in which AI shows through simulation that no one would win in a nuclear war.)

Types of Artificial Intelligence

There are two broad types of artificial intelligence: Narrow AI and General AI.

Narrow AI performs a single task without sophisticated programming; think of Siri for Apple, answering questions that are asked of it. Narrow AI is based on machine learning, constructed through a set of algorithms that try to imitate human intelligence. Machine learning uses data and statistics to better “learn” the data to improve its ability to solve the task at hand. Deep learning is a type of machine learning that tries to imitate the human brain, taking the data through a biologically inspired neural network and processing the data to make connections and create patterns.

General AI is more complex and tries to mirror human intellect. It uses its ability to learn and apply knowledge learned to solve problems. We are still in the process of moving from narrow AI to general AI. This is why the field of AI is so exciting to so many people — we are still in the very early stages of what we can do with it.

Chart showing various uses of artificial intelligence across industries and networks

A lot of companies use the term AI in their marketing efforts, but the ways it is used vary widely. Here are some examples of how industries are using AI today:

• Medicine: AI aids in producing sharper images more quickly for radiologists by using algorithms, helps to assess heart muscle functions through cardiac ultrasound technology and assists drug discovery by determining if new drugs are more effective than older ones.

• Search: AI-powered search technology refines the relevance of search-engine results, powers the ability to chat and helps users compose content. In announcing Bard, a conversational AI service in development, Google’s CEO recently said that AI will “distill complex information and multiple perspectives into easy-to-digest formats.”

• Chatbots: Consumers benefit from AI as it is used to remove frustration from calling customer service centers and enables machines to answer frequently asked questions, take orders, track orders and direct calls.

• Maps and navigation: Services use AI to deliver optimal routes, road barriers and traffic congestion through wayfinding apps and services. Using machine learning, algorithms remember buildings, roadways and other landmarks to allow for better visuals on maps.

• Facial detection and recognition: AI powers technology that uses facial identification to unlock our devices and enables facial-recognition surveillance efforts by airport security.

• Text editing and autocorrect: Algorithms use machine learning and deep learning to identify incorrect usage of language and recommend corrections. Tools such as Grammarly can check our work before we submit papers and check our spelling to make sure there are no errors in emails.

• Social media: Applications are using the support of AI to monitor content, suggest connections and advertise to targeted users to ensure that we are plugged in. Social media AI has the ability to understand the types of content that resonate with users and suggest similar content.

• Electronic payments: Banks are leveraging AI to facilitate customers’ payment processes — making deposits, transferring money and even opening accounts.

Nearly every part of your day is touched by some form of AI. Automated learning and discovery through data add intelligence to existing products, achieve accuracy through deep neural networks and deep learning, and gets the most out of data. The goal of AI is to provide software that can reason on input and explain on output.

AI will continue to provide humanlike interactions with software and decision support for specific tasks — but it is not a replacement for humans (at least not in the near future)! As it evolves, AI will continue to provide important breakthroughs, especially in the field of medicine, for years to come.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: AI Time Journal, Bloomberg

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

The Portfolio Changes We’re Making as the Market Evolves

As we near springtime, we find ourselves in a time of transition — is the weather going to be cold or hot? The economy also is in transition, and with lots of contradictions — are we going into a recession or not? Deteriorating economic indicators have had a strong track record of predicting recessions, but many have incorrectly warned of oncoming contractions. Soft and hard data hit recessionary levels in 2022, but the big question is whether the Federal Reserve and other banks will find a way to subdue inflation without causing a recession.

Labor remains strong, and inflation continues to show signs of cooling. Consumers are spending money, as seen in a retail sales increase of 3% month over month in January. Wage growth is slowing but remains fairly high. On the flip side, growth in average hourly earnings has slowed relatively quickly. The Fed has recently indicated concern that inflation in the service sector (not including housing) remains stubbornly high. However, weakening consumer spending suggests price growth will continue to slow. Banks have made it harder and more expensive for consumers and businesses to obtain credit and financing.

With rates rising for mortgages, credit cards and auto loans, the Fed’s tightening policy is on track to slow consumption and demand. As we have written before, this is one of the two methods the Fed is employing to slow down inflation: reducing demand and increasing unemployment to slow wage growth.

Global manufacturing has lagged following the pandemic as inventory shortages turned to gluts. Now, however, signs have started to emerge that manufacturing may be bouncing back as surplus inventories are down. Growth in manufacturing would be a good sign for the global economy. The tradeoff, though, is that such a recovery could prevent central banks from cutting interest rates, as many have predicted later this year.

Chart listing economic indicators and their correlation to recessions — *Source: Bloomberg, FRED, GSAM. As of Jan. 31, 2023*

With all the conflicting messages and information, we must continue to look ahead. We use leading economic indicators to point to future events; lagging indicators tell us where we have been, helping us confirm a pattern. Both serve a purpose, but the markets are forward-looking, often telling us what may happen ahead of time.

As we reallocate and rebalance our client portfolios to account for where we think the market is heading, we are making the following changes:

1. From a fixed-income perspective, last year we maintained a shorter duration in the portfolio as the Fed remains in a tightening cycle. The very short end of the curve has continued to rise, yielding to higher money market and Treasury rates. We feel that most of the interest-rate change is accounted for in the bond market. At the same time, in taxable accounts, we added a tax-free municipal bond position instead of a taxable bond fund, as municipal bonds offer great value in this market. We are watching the Fed closely for indications of the end of the rate-hiking cycle and will look to adjust the duration of the portfolio when there is further clarity.

2. Last year, we did a significant amount of tax-loss harvesting to take advantage of a down market. As we potentially enter a recession or a market bottom, diversification and active management should play a larger role. In 2022, both stocks and bonds fell together. Cash, some commodities and energy stocks were the lone survivors in an otherwise bad year. We continue to believe in both passive and active funds in the portfolios, depending on the asset class. We are swapping out passive investment in small-cap stocks for an active manager. At the same time, we are adding an exposure to emerging markets. In 2023, China is reopening after several years of lockdowns, and the dollar is weakening. The portfolios are not overweight in either stocks or bonds and have a good mix of growth and value. We feel the portfolios are prepared for either an upside surprise or continued volatility.

Our focus remains on long-term investing with a strategic allocation while maintaining a tactical approach. Our decisions to make changes are calculated and well thought out. We are not guessing or market timing.

We are anticipating and moving to those areas of strength in the economy — and in the stock market. We will continue to focus on the fact that what really matters right now is time in the market, not out of the market. That means staying the course and continuing to invest, even when the markets dip, to take advantage of potential market upturns.

We continue to adhere to the tried-and-true disciplines of diversification, periodic rebalancing and looking forward, while not making investment decisions based on where we have been. It is important to focus on the long-term goal, not on one specific data point or indicator.

Long-term fundamentals are what matter. In markets and moments like these, it is essential to stick to the financial plan. Investing is about following a disciplined process over time.

Sources: Bloomberg, GSAM, Investopedia, Schwab

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

The Fed Raised Rates Again — Here’s What That Means for Investors

The Federal Reserve announced another rate hike last week, raising the federal funds rate to a range from 4.5% to 4.75%. Though it appears the Fed may be close to the end of its rate-hiking cycle, additional increases are still likely — probably more similar in size to 25 basis points than the more aggressive rate hikes of 75 basis points that we saw last year. The Fed’s statement said that “ongoing increases in the target range” would be appropriate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that “while recent developments are encouraging, we will need substantially more evidence to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path.” He also said rate cuts later this year are not likely.

Some key highlights from the Fed’s take on the economy and next steps:

• The U.S. economy slowed significantly in 2022, but indicators suggest modest growth in the first quarter of the year. (Remember that fourth-quarter GDP was 2.9%.)

• Ongoing increases in the federal funds rate are appropriate, and “history argues against relaxing policy prematurely.”

• Shifting to a slower pace of rate hikes allows the Fed to better gauge how the economy is responding.

• The Fed’s focus is on sustained changes, not short-term moves.

• Regarding the debt ceiling: “Nobody should assume the Fed can save the economy if there is a default.” The only way forward is for Congress to raise the debt ceiling limit.

Even as the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points last week — its eighth hike since 2002 — savings account rates have remained low. With inflation at its highest level in four decades, the cost of holding cash is magnified as investors are left with a reality of negative real savings rates. As the chart below illustrates, the average savings account interest rate is paying .3%, while the effective federal funds rate is now 4.5%. Major banks continue to offer little in the way of savings rates.

More attractive yields exist for those with excess cash, whether in money market funds or short-duration fixed income, such as Treasury bills. To put this in dollar terms, if you have $100,000 in a savings account earning .3% per year, you will earn $300 in interest. That same $100,000 earning 4% in money market or Treasuries earns $4,000 a year in interest income — an increase of $3,700 for sitting in cash! That is a significant number of dollars potentially being left on the table.

Chart showing yield from federal funds rate vs. savings account rate — *Sources: Federal Reserve, FDIC and Goldman Sachs Asset Management*

On the back of the Fed announcement and Friday’s very strong job report (517,000 new jobs were created in January, and the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low of 3.4%), the market (S&P 500) experienced moves of more than 1% all five days last week. This has happened only 23 times since 1953.

The chart below shows that when this has occurred, the average return has been almost 25% one year later. The bond market also experienced volatility, initially moving higher to start the week and then dropping based on the Fed statement, only to rally on Friday and send yields higher after the job report.

The bond market is now pricing in that the Fed may make one more rate hike next month and that it may not cut rates later this year. The recent GDP and labor reports show that this economy is not in a recession. There are pockets of the economy — such as housing — that are in a recession, but the overall economy remains resilient.

As long as demand (GDP) and employment remain as strong as they are, the Fed will remain hesitant to cut rates and may even continue to raise them past the 5% federal fund target level. Remember, the stock market is a leading indicator, and it should lead the economy as it eventually stabilizes.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Bespoke, Goldman Sachs, Schwab

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

What Will It Take for Bonds to Bounce Back from a Historic Meltdown?

As we all are aware, bonds experienced a significant meltdown in 2022. Historically thought of as the boring, relatively safe part of an investment portfolio, bonds typically are a shock absorber. As we wrote many times last year, bond returns were anything but boring. Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at Santa Clara, said 2022 was the worst year on record for U.S. bond investors; longer-dated bonds like the 30-year U.S. Treasury lost 39.2%. (You would have to go back to the late 1700s to find a worse return!)

Returns on U.S. Bonds Hit New Historic Lows in 2022

The bond dynamic appears to be shaping up very differently for 2023. The Fed is poised to continue raising rates (even as we write this, the Fed will raise rates again this week). However, the increase is unlikely to be as dramatic as 2022. Strong yields and the prospect of a less hawkish Federal Reserve are breathing new life into bonds. (A hawk is one that supports higher rates, whereas a dove supports lower rates.)

In 2022, there was pessimism in the global markets that was tied to central banks raising rates to rein in decades-high inflation. Both the stock and bond market indexes were down double digits. The losses were unique, with 2022 being the first time in 45 years that both stocks and bonds declined together. The chart below shows stocks and bonds going back to 1977. Notice that 2022 is the only year in the bottom left quadrant, reflecting same-year declines for both.

Annual Returns for Stocks and Bonds Since 1977

After the Fed hiked rates seven times last year, bonds today offer more income and higher return potential. The yield on the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, a widely used benchmark for investment-grade bonds, ended the year at 4.68%. This same index ended 2021 with a yield of 1.75%. Bond return comprises both price changes and interest paid. With higher yields, bonds offer more cushion from the income component compared to the start of last year. In the past three decades, bond total returns were driven predominantly from the coupon component, not price changes. If bonds today offer more income and higher coupons due to higher rates, there is a chance for potential higher returns in fixed income.

Total Return Components of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index

Investors are hoping that we do not repeat the same interest-rate volatility that hit bond markets last year. Inflation is moving in the right direction, and the Fed has dialed down the pace of hikes. Signs of a slowing economy have started to appear beyond the softening of housing demand. Consumers have begun to pull back on buying cars, and retail sales softened in December. The Fed wants to see lower inflation and to achieve that, it needs unemployment to rise and GDP — i.e., demand for goods — to fall.

As of now, the market expects the Fed to pivot from rate hikes to rate cuts either later this year or early in 2024. That would be a positive for bond prices as yields would begin to fall. If we happen to enter a recession, Fed policymakers could look to rate cuts sooner, which in turn would boost returns for fixed income even further.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Capital Group

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

Worried About the Debt-Ceiling Drama? Here’s What You Should Know

The clock started ticking last week on the drama surrounding the debt ceiling. The United States hit the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling on Jan. 19, triggering the Treasury Department to start taking extraordinary measures to prevent a default. Although the crisis probably is five to six months away, concern about whether a deeply divided Congress can find a path to raise the debt ceiling will be a critical issue this summer.

What is the debt ceiling?

Established by Congress, the debt ceiling is the maximum amount of money the federal government can borrow to finance obligations that lawmakers and presidents have already approved. It was originally created more than 100 years ago, and it has been modified more than 100 times since World War II alone. Though its original purpose was to make it easier for the federal government to borrow money, the debt ceiling has become a political battleground as a way for Congress to restrict the growth of borrowing. Increasing the debt ceiling does not authorize new spending commitments; it allows the government to meet its existing obligations.

What would happen if the United States were to default on its debt?

If the government were no longer able to borrow, it would not have enough money to pay its bills, including interest on the national debt. It would probably have to delay payments or default on some of its commitments, potentially affecting Social Security payments and federal workers’ salaries. Thankfully, this has never happened, so no one knows exactly how the Treasury would handle the situation. In a letter to Congress, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin wrote that the department would begin employing “extraordinary measures” to help delay the point at which the nation might default on its debt.

What are “extraordinary measures”?

The Treasury has employed measures more than a dozen times in past debt-ceiling battles to prevent a default by allowing lawmakers more time to increase or suspend the limit. These measures include suspending new investments in various retirement accounts for government employees. These funds count against the debt limit and would therefore reduce the amount of outstanding debt subject to the limit, providing the agency with additional capacity to continue funding the government’s operations. No retirees would be affected ultimately, though, as the funds would be made whole once the debt ceiling was agreed upon.

Will Congress raise the debt ceiling?

The closest the United States ever came to default was the summer of 2011, when Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time ever and the S&P 500 fell by more than 16%. Congress eventually reached a compromise in early August, raising the debt limit just days before the country would have defaulted. Those conditions are similar politically to what we have today with a Democrat in the White House, Democrats holding a slight majority in the Senate and Republicans holding a slight majority in the House. The drama will play out over the next several months, but ultimately the two parties will have to negotiate a solution. Currently, neither party is in a rush to begin working on a deal.

What is the potential impact on the markets?

The stock market historically has not reacted until the default deadline is much closer. In 2011, the market downturn started about a month before the deadline and accelerated as the deadline approached. Market volatility increased as the deadline drew closer. At this point, we are five to six months away from a potential crisis point, so the market reaction is expected to remain calm for now. While the path to resolution is uncertain, a default would be an unprecedented event that would have dramatic repercussions in the global financial markets. But this has never happened before; Congress has always managed to reach an agreement, and we think that this time will be no different.

The debt-ceiling situation is only one factor among many that is likely to impact the markets in 2023. The markets continue to focus on the economy, jobs and inflation data, as well as the Fed’s interest-rate strategy.

All of these factors will have a much larger effect on investor sentiment over the next few months than the looming debt-ceiling drama.

As we get closer to the default deadline, we will determine if any changes need to be made to the portfolios. We would like to reiterate that a default has never happened, and we will continue to monitor the issue diligently.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Brookings Institute, CNBC, Schwab

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

What Does the Market’s Start in January Tell Us About the Year Ahead?

The story for investors last year was all about inflation. The 2023 narrative is shifting toward how quickly inflation can cool — and how much cooling will be sufficient to get the Fed to pause its campaign of hiking interest rates.

Last week, the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report marked the fourth consecutive decline in headline CPI on a year-over-year basis. The Fed will want to see further evidence that inflation is cooling, especially in the service sector (see chart below) before it will be comfortable pausing rate hikes. Housing costs are generally the biggest-ticket item on most households’ spending budgets, and shelter costs (rent and mortgage payments) make up roughly one-third of the CPI index.

Services Ex-Shelter to Keep the Fed Hiking but at a Slower Pace

Year-over-year percentage change, seasonally adjusted

Year-over-year percentage change in headline CPI and services ex-shelter, seasonally adjusted — *Sources: BLS and JP Morgan Asset Management*

Unfortunately, many retail investors tend to sell low and buy high when investing in the stock market. As a result of the difficult last year in the stock market, investors have pulled more money out of U.S. equities than at any time since 2005. Most of this comes down to behavioral finance: Investors worry more about losing money than they do about making money.

At the same time — and for the first time in many cycles — cash/money market now offers a better yield than the dividend yield on the S&P 500. This offers a good alternative for those looking for income, but it does not replace the long-term growth that can potentially be achieved in the equity markets. While money market rates and short-term Treasury rates are very attractive for the first time in many years (see the chart below), the rates still do not keep pace with current levels of inflation.

Many investors think that they are going to move to cash — or to the sidelines — so they can wait out the downside or potential recession, earn interest on their cash, and then get back in when the market has “settled down.” As we have written many times, market timing rarely works, and it’s very difficult for individual investors to remove emotion out of the decision making when the market is falling. This often leads to subpar long-term results, compared to what the results would have been if they had just stayed the course.

January Sees Collapse in U.S. Equity Allocation

Net % say they are overweight U.S. equities

Yield Comparison

The market ended 2022 on a down note, with the S&P finishing the last four weeks of the year down, but January has started very differently. The Santa Claus rally — which refers to the stock market’s tendency to rally in the last five trading sessions of a calendar year and the first two sessions of the next — did eke out a gain this year. On top of that, the first five trading days also were also positive. When the market finishes positive in January, it finishes the year higher 70% of the time.

The chart below shows that the last nine times that there has been a positive Santa Claus rally, positive results for the first five trading days of the year, the month of January finished higher, combined with a negative prior year, the average return for the year has been 27.1%. (Remember that past returns are no guarantee of future returns, but the negative sentiment that exists for the market may not be warranted.)

If Stocks Are Down the Previous Year, This Trifecta Is Very Bullish

Trifecta of the Santa Claus Rally, first five days of the year and January All Green (1950-present)

This is only one indicator, but it’s clearly a sign we should not ignore going forward. Santa Claus did come to town last year, marking the seventh consecutive year stocks were higher during this historically strong period. The Fed will eventually have to acknowledge that price pressures also are easing in a broad manner. The implication is that the Fed does not need to maintain as strict a policy as it has. This is what investors are currently betting will happen, at least in the bond market. We expect more turbulence ahead, but we don’t think investors should wait for the all-clear signal that everything is better before investing in the market.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Bank of America, Carson Investment Research, JP Morgan

Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.

When Will the Recession Start and End? Here’s What We Actually Know

From a stock market perspective, we are glad to have put 2022 to bed. It’s rare to find a calendar year in which both equities and fixed income decline in tandem. The chart below shows annual returns over the past 45 years. In 1994, both stocks and bonds suffered small losses, and it nearly happened again in 2018. However, last year really takes the cake. We have never seen both simultaneously decline as they did in 2022.

Chart showing performance of stocks and bonds since 1978

The rough waters in 2022 made many investors question whether the 60/40 portfolio was dead. The numbers are ugly: Last year will go down in history as one of the worst periods for bond returns on record. Normally when stocks go down, bonds help stabilize the portfolio, which is why the 60/40 portfolio has long been a good proxy for moderate growth portfolios. From 1980 through 2022, a 60/40 portfolio delivered positive returns 35 out of 43 years.

Making significant investment decisions based on one year’s unsatisfactory performance is never a good idea. If you were to have made that change following 2008, you would have missed out on 11 years of positive performance — with only 2018 being negative (and that was by just 3%). The average annual return of the period from 1980 through 2021 was 9.8% for a 60/40 portfolio.

Only 2008 Has Been Worse for a 60/40 Portfolio

Annual return for a 60/40 portfolio, 1976-present

Chart showing the annual return for a 60/40 portfolio from 1978 to the present

Now, everyone wants to know when the next recession will start and how long it will last. No doubt each recession can be painful in its own way. The global economy appears headed in the direction of a recession. It is more than likely that Europe already is in a recession. China’s growth has decelerated essentially to zero, following strict COVID lockdowns.

The U.S. economy is stronger than most. When looking at the recessionary indicators below, the overall signal is that a recession is coming. Many factors can contribute to a recession, and the main causes often change. It is always helpful to look at many different indicators to better assess where the economy is at any point in time. These factors currently suggest that the U.S. is in a late part of the economic cycle and moving closer to a recession, even though the labor market remains resilient.

Chart showing where we stand regarding recession factors — Data as of November 30, 2022. Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Conference Board, Census Bureau, Federal Reserve, FRBPA, Chicago Fed, ISM, Dept. of Labor, Bloomberg/Barclays, AAII, Investors Intelligence, and Moody’s.

The good news is that recessions generally have not lasted very long in the U.S. The 11 recessions since 1950 have lasted between two months (COVID) and 18 months (the great financial crisis), with the average spanning 10 months.

Investors with a long-term horizon are better served looking at the bigger picture. Over the last 70 years, the U.S. has been in a recession less than 15% of all months. The net economic impact has been relatively small. The average expansion increased economic output by almost 25%, whereas the average recession reduced GDP by 2.5%.

The exact timing of a recession is hard to predict. Bear markets and recessions often overlap, with equities leading the economic cycle by six to seven months on the way down as well as the way up. Recessions have been relatively small blips in economic history.

Recessions Are Painful, but Expansions Have Been Powerful

Cumulative GDP growth

Remember, much of what we read and hear on the news is market predictions representing what economists and analysts think is going to happen in the year ahead. At the beginning of 2022, the top 15 Wall Street firms predicted on average that the S&P 500 would finish at 4,950 (from a high of 5,330 to a low of 4,400). The S&P 500 finished 2022 at 3,839, a far cry from the average prediction and much lower than anyone predicted to start the year. Those same analysts today predict on average that the S&P will finish 2023 at 4,100 (a high of 4,500 to a low of 3,725). At the end of the day, these are predictions. No one knows for sure how this year will play out. What we do know is that over time, markets tend to rise — and by not being invested when the market rebounds, you will miss out on the recovery.

The CD Wealth Formula

We help our clients reach and maintain financial stability by following a specific plan, catered to each client.

Sources: Bloomberg, Capital Group, Carson, CNBC, Factset, Horizon Asset Management

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Using diversification as part of your investment strategy neither assures nor guarantees better performance and cannot protect against loss of principal due to changing market conditions.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

*Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC acquires and supports high quality investment adviser and wealth management companies throughout the United States.